ag3 Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 Gfs pops a big coastal day 8-9 and then looks like arctic air being pulled down into the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 Gfs pops a big coastal day 8-9 and then looks like arctic air being pulled down into the country. :shiver: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 Arctic assault on the gfs. Days 9-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 Nice size storm but too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 Nice size storm but too warm. Something to watch for future runs, though, if we can get the cold air first. Happy Thanksgiving! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 Intense GEFS shows a low off the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 ECMWF tells a different photo of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 loop this for kicks. happy thanksgiving, boys. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_12z/cmcloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 Just when it seemed that the models couldn't get any different for the storm next week... the GFS brings the heavier rain on Sunday night/Monday, the ECM now brings it through on Thursday, the CMC got lost again, the UKMET cuts the storm off near the Great Lakes. Sometimes it seems that the models make the forecast even more complicated than it should be. At least on the bright side, there won't be any massive ridge building behind this storm and trough like there has been almost every time this month... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 Just when it seemed that the models couldn't get any different for the storm next week... the GFS brings the heavier rain on Sunday night/Monday, the ECM now brings it through on Thursday, the CMC got lost again, the UKMET cuts the storm off near the Great Lakes. Sometimes it seems that the models make the forecast even more complicated than it should be. At least on the bright side, there won't be any massive ridge building behind this storm and trough like there has been almost every time this month... Euro backed way off the ridging in the Pacific near the end of the run which isn't that surprising I guess. The ridge the 12z OP had yesterday was on roids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 Euro looks fugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 I find it hard to see the pattern we've been in changing anytime soon. Continues to look to me like brief cool shots followed 2-3 days of warmth then some moisture rinse and repeat. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 It is going to get cooler next week. If the gfs verifies , it will get a lot colder.The PNA will do the dirty work in the pattern coming up. We don't need a -nao for cold weather around here. I know a lot of you don't like Ruggie but he also thinks that it will get a lot colder by midmonth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 It is going to get cooler next week. If the gfs verifies , it will get a lot colder.The PNA will do the dirty work in the pattern coming up. We don't need a -nao for cold weather around here. I know a lot of you don't like Ruggie but he also thinks that it will get a lot colder by midmonth. Well that's great to hear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 Well that's great to hear I don't get why no one likes him. He's a really nice guy and he knows what he's talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lisnow66 Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 According wxoutlooks this will be a winter with not much snow. Hope he's way off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 According wxoutlooks this will be a winter with not much snow. Hope he's way off. It all depends on the blocking, Nao,Pna and epo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 It gets cold on the gfs but it's transient. The end of the run is ugly for the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 GFS has shown a big storm for a few runs now for Dec. 2nd. Details still to be worked out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 It all depends on the blocking, Nao,Pna and epo. What does it depend on in other years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 Well when the cold air gets here, it might hit hard but it will be brief and it'll warm up quickly. Basically were going to need more perfect timing to a get a snowstorm in December at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 What does it depend on in other years? Mother Nature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 The ensemble mean still shows a weak low around the 2nd. Have to watch that closely to see if it develops . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 I was just lurking into random threads in a forum that specializes in US city statistics and demographics. Then, I came upon this post. "It's going to get colder next week. The PNA is rising . This cold shot should be transient. I think the pattern will really change to cold and stormy weather by the middle of March when the Alaskan vortex breaks down and the NAO goes negative." -Posted by Tony88 http://www.city-data.com/forum/new-york-city/1430418-warm-winter-3.html Ugh...hope that's a typo there. Who is Tony88 anyway? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 I was just lurking into random threads in a forum that specializes in US city statistics and demographics. Then, I came upon this post. "It's going to get colder next week. The PNA is rising . This cold shot should be transient. I think the pattern will really change to cold and stormy weather by the middle of March when the Alaskan vortex breaks down and the NAO goes negative." -Posted by Tony88 http://www.city-data.com/forum/new-york -city/1430418-warm-winter-3.html Ugh...hope that's a typo there. Who is Tony88 anyway? lol I meant to say the middle of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 Wow, how many different forums do you post in? I've seen you in Metro, Eastern, AccuWeather and now City-Data of all places. 98% of the members in City-Data do not even understand your usage of the meteorological terms you state in there. =P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 Wow, how many different forums do you post in? I've seen you in Metro, Eastern, AccuWeather and now City-Data of all places. 98% of the members in City-Data do not even understand your usage of the meteorological terms you state in there. =P I post on a lot of forums lol. I had a feeling not everyone knows what I am talking about .If they want to learn, just pm me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 I haven't been on City-Data in months. I think that's what lead me to here lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 Most of the members now show a -NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 0z GFS has a storm a long the coast near the 2nd. It has showed up for a couple of runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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