Alpha5 Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 a moment of silence for Sundog. Dibs on his iPhone ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 1322088161[/url]' post='1139932']? He committed suicide too early. 12z euro and especially the 18z GFS are pretty nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 Looks like we still have one last 65 degree day in NYC/NE NJ to enjoy before the pattern turns noticeably colder for early December: Also, does anyone know how accurate the MOS forecast highs usually are? The MOS on the GFS shows lower 60s on Friday and 64-65 degrees on Saturday, but there were times when they have been too cold or too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 24, 2011 Author Share Posted November 24, 2011 wow at the 18z gefs, sundog really would have enjoyed them, bless his soul. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 24, 2011 Author Share Posted November 24, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 its a bit deceiving. This is a transient cold shot at best...+EPO and no blocking at all, H5 is not conducive to cold in the east for extended periods of time. That being said, I like how the models have continually developed a bit of a +PNA out west which helps compensate for the lack of a -NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 24, 2011 Author Share Posted November 24, 2011 its a bit deceiving. This is a transient cold shot at best...+EPO and no blocking at all, H5 is not conducive to cold in the east for extended periods of time. That being said, I like how the models have continually developed a bit of a +PNA out west which helps compensate for the lack of a -NAO Your starting to sound like noreaster27. the whole run in the long range is cold dude. It's not transient. And other parts of the run show a -EPO. I'm not going to go over the whole NAO thing and cold air again. Be happy the pattern is changing, or maybe you won't be who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 Yep, with the PNA dropping short wave after shortwave, it's Bringing the cold with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 Who cares about the nao. Not the only way to get cold and snow. People are too obsessed with the nao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 Your starting to sound like noreaster27. the whole run in the long range is cold dude. It's not transient. And other parts of the run show a -EPO. I'm not going to go over the whole NAO thing and cold air again. Be happy the pattern is changing, or maybe you won't be who knows. Im looking at the run and there are multiple, transitive cold shots after hr 192. If you remember from last year, blocking essentially kept a vortex over eastern canada and locked in arctic air during the early-mid parts of december last year. Without a block were not going to see that. Im not arguing that an NAO is the only way to get cold, but if you want sustained cold, having a weak +PNA and variable EPO is not the way to go, and it could easily switch back to warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 Alpha is not my favorite poster anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 24, 2011 Author Share Posted November 24, 2011 Im looking at the run and there are multiple, transitive cold shots after hr 192. If you remember from last year, blocking essentially kept a vortex over eastern canada and locked in arctic air during the early-mid parts of december last year. Without a block were not going to see that. Im not arguing that an NAO is the only way to get cold, but if you want sustained cold, having a weak +PNA and variable EPO is not the way to go, and it could easily switch back to warm Im talking about the ensembles and posting ensemble images, you are talking about the OP. The enembles are sustained cold after about 200 hours or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 24, 2011 Author Share Posted November 24, 2011 Yep, with the PNA dropping short wave after shortwave, it's Bringing the cold with it. agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 Im talking about the ensembles and posting ensemble images, you are talking about the OP. The enembles are sustained cold after about 200 hours or so Yeah the ensembles seem to carve out a decent trough after 200. All I'm saying is that theres a big risk trying to maintain cold in the east with just a PNA (one thats not even that strong)....I think you can agree to that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 Looking at the upper air charts next week, be glad it isn't September with a tropical cyclone off the SE coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 Looking at the upper air charts next week, be glad it isn't September with a tropical cyclone off the SE coast. What you mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 Happy thanksgiving everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 Earthlight convinced me not to do it. He said please hold off until December 15th. He promised me that everything will be different December 15th. He blathered on about NAO, MJO, JLo, who knows what else. He said if he's wrong about DECEMBER 15th then I should go through with it. He also said he'll never post again and he'll shave his head, drain his pool and move to DC, the snow capital of the Northeast. Not by Dulles either, by DCA. Thanks Earthlight and Happy Thanksgiving everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 Did Earthlight also promise to barge into NorEaster27's house and import his drained electric-hot pool water into NorEaster27's backyard so there will always be "epic coastal flooding" in NorEaster27's eyes year-round that would also melt all of his upcoming snowflakes upon contact with the ground? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 Lol, in your daily example of "ask and you shall receive" the GEFS build the positive height anomalies more towards the Davis Straight as I wished for earlier. Too bad it's transient. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSHGTAVGNH_0z/f144.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 Earthlight convinced me not to do it. He said please hold off until December 15th. He promised me that everything will be different December 15th. He blathered on about NAO, MJO, JLo, who knows what else. He said if he's wrong about DECEMBER 15th then I should go through with it. He also said he'll never post again and he'll shave his head, drain his pool and move to DC, the snow capital of the Northeast. Not by Dulles either, by DCA. Thanks Earthlight and Happy Thanksgiving everyone! This is a drunk post. Admit it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 This is totally happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 Happy Thanksgiving from the Northeast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 Happy Thanksgiving weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 Happy Thanksgiving weenies You too Anthony!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 You too Anthony!!! Lets pray for a pattern change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 Lets pray for a pattern change lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 24, 2011 Author Share Posted November 24, 2011 would love to see what the nam did next, race between the cold air and the wave forming over the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 24, 2011 Author Share Posted November 24, 2011 lol at that chart. We had the most perfect davis strait block on Halloween and it basically shows a neutral to slightly positive NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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