Brian5671 Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 Im thinking the middle to the end of december to actually get something that resembles a good winter pattern of cold and stormy for us Those that predicted a cold stormy December are possibly headed for a severe bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 I think we will have a period of snow and cold this winter..but to expect another 40-50 inch winter,or another major snowstorm in December is unreasonable..things always even out..and nobody can complain after the last 10 years which have been amazing for snow in this area..I remember the 70's and 80's and most of the 90's..I know what a snow drought is like.It was like pulling teeth to get snow in those decades..growing up December was usually mild and snowless it was like pulling teeth for a significant snowfall in December...That 3-5" we got in October seems like last season...I still believe we see another set up like that this year with colder air...It's kind of wishfull thinking at this point but I don't think the winter will be a total loss... December snowfalls 4" or more since 1945... ..8.8" 12/19-20/1945... 26.4" 12/26-27/1947... ..5.3" 12/15/1948 16.0" 12/19-20/1948 ..4.0" 12/31/1948 ..4.5" 12/3-4/1952 ..8.0" 12/3-4/1957 13.7" 12/21-22/1959 15.2" 12/11-12/1960... ..6.2" 12/23-24/1961 ..6.6" 12/23/24/1963 ..7.1" 12/24-25/1966 ..5.2" 12/15/1968 ..6.8" 12/25-27/1969 ..4.7" 12/28/1984 not sure about ..7.0" 12/27/1990 not sure about date ..4.2" 12/29-30/1993 ..7.7" 12/19-20/1995 12.0" 12/30/2000 ..6.0" 12/5/2002 ..5.0" 12/25/2002 14.0" 12/5-6/2003 ..5.3" 12/14/2003 ..5.8" 12/5/2005 ..4.5" 12/19-20/2008 10.9" 12/19-20/2009 20.0" 12/26-27/2010 1952 and 1961 are the only years with a seasonal snowfall under 20"... period.......4" snowfalls 10" snowfalls 1945-58..............7...........................2 1959-71..............7...........................2 1972-84..............1...........................0 1985-97..............3...........................0 1997-10..............9...........................4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 kinda pathetic when you give up on the future.... I'm actually committing suicide later today. I'll let you know how it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 23, 2011 Author Share Posted November 23, 2011 gfs gets nice and cold at the end, no torch's after the 500 low comes through, and some blocking over northern greenland at the end with a nice ridge out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 12z gfs is beautiful in the long range. Trough after trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 23, 2011 Author Share Posted November 23, 2011 hope springs eternal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 23, 2011 Author Share Posted November 23, 2011 biggest thing the gfs does is it keeps enough ridging out west to dump the vorts over the top and bring down cold. It also puts the PV over eastern canada which brings in real cold. No SE ridge really showing up even without the blocking. As previously stated, blocking may be showing up at the very end of the fantasy range. Much better than the 6z that caused Sundog to jump into the LI sound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 biggest thing the gfs does is it keeps enough ridging out west to dump the vorts over the top and bring down cold. It also puts the PV over eastern canada which brings in real cold. No SE ridge really showing up even without the blocking. As previously stated, blocking may be showing up at the very end of the fantasy range. Much better than the 6z that caused Sundog to jump into the LI sound. Yeah the PNA is the real saving grace there. There is absolutely no blocking downstream, so even though we get some cold, its completely transient and moves out quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 Looks like another deluge Monday. Over 2.5". Starts cooling down mid week and then downright chilly as we go into December 12z gfs is beautiful in the long range. Trough after trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 23, 2011 Author Share Posted November 23, 2011 Yeah the PNA is the real saving grace there. There is absolutely no blocking downstream, so even though we get some cold, its completely transient and moves out quickly oy, this again? cold can be sustained without a -NAO. In fact, the entire period after the 500 low moves through is cool to cold with a brief warmup. The NAO humping needs to stop. You never know when a block will setup and setup a storm, and even without a block, it can snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 12z gfs is beautiful in the long range. Trough after trough. We don't really want "trough after trough", which is transient because of no blocking. We want one persistent trough where a vort can spin down and blow up a storm, that won't cut inland. No blocking in a Nina=storms like today's, where we have SW flow that changes many of us over fast, or inland cutters. Blah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 Sundog probably jumped off the sound with Jimmy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 We don't really want "trough after trough", which is transient because of no blocking. We want one persistent trough where a vort can spin down and blow up a storm, that won't cut inland. No blocking in a Nina=storms like today's, where we have SW flow that changes ma ny of us over fast, or inland cutters. Blah Great post......only hope is clippers or miller b(flow would be to fast anyway) any storm in the middle will cut west of us....we need blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 23, 2011 Author Share Posted November 23, 2011 We don't really want "trough after trough", which is transient because of no blocking. We want one persistent trough where a vort can spin down and blow up a storm, that won't cut inland. No blocking in a Nina=storms like today's, where we have SW flow that changes many of us over fast, or inland cutters. Blah strongly disagree. This doesnt always happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 We don't really want "trough after trough", which is transient because of no blocking. We want one persistent trough where a vort can spin down and blow up a storm, that won't cut inland. No blocking in a Nina=storms like today's, where we have SW flow that changes many of us over fast, or inland cutters. Blah We could, rely on timing, but that rarely works out and that only would work if the NAO was going from positive to negative or vice versa, examples PD II and JAN 26-27, 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 23, 2011 Author Share Posted November 23, 2011 winter is about expectations. If you are looking for every storm to be a KU, you are going to be dissapointed. If you are looking for a 570dm block to setup for two months same thing. Right now just getting a trough to the east coast is an accomplishment and seeing persistent ridging out west is a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 It's a really good sign that we are seeing ridging out west . The PNA might be the lifesaver this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 23, 2011 Author Share Posted November 23, 2011 gefs in agreement with OP for the pattern. Also showing something off the coast around 240 hours or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 Maine http://www.crownofmaine.com/keybank/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 23, 2011 Author Share Posted November 23, 2011 Wow euro is trying to turn that cutoff into something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 23, 2011 Author Share Posted November 23, 2011 LOL at the euro trying to turn nothing into something around 168 hours. Maybe some snow on the backside of the phased system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 What the heck is today's 12z Euro doing?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 The pattern is getting better folks, todays GGEM was even more robust with the pattern change. Yes things are not perfect, but if the long range is right it's way better than the atrocious pattern we have endured over the last several weeks. Fixing the pacific is extremely important and that's that the data is showing. Babysteps people Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 23, 2011 Author Share Posted November 23, 2011 What the heck is today's 12z Euro doing?? i referenced this earlier, 12z euro takes the cut off low and partially phases it with another vort. This is the backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 I'm actually committing suicide later today. I'll let you know how it goes. not yet....wait until feb1 at the earliest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 not yet....wait until feb1 at the earliest. Its to late....im sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 23, 2011 Author Share Posted November 23, 2011 a moment of silence for Sundog. Dibs on his iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 i referenced this earlier, 12z euro takes the cut off low and partially phases it with another vort. This is the backside. I know. It's comical and shocking to see the Euro take that stance was my point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 23, 2011 Author Share Posted November 23, 2011 I know. It's comical and shocking to see the Euro take that stance was my point. based on the euro maps i saw, these are overdone. The surface is pretty warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 based on the euro maps i saw, these are overdone. The surface is pretty warm. Aren't they almost always overdone? But in all seriousness (even though this is the BS thread) if we see flakes out of the cut off low system, we would be lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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