ag3 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 1322693622[/url]' post='1155407']So more accuracy with less data? Sounds like BS to me. Stats show they are equal in accuracy. No difference at all between 6z, 12z, 18z or 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 GFS is getting there....the FROPA still seems a bit to amplified compared to the Euro, causing warmer air to linger in a touch longer....otherwise, this is a big bow to the euro The 0z runs will be telling...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Nao index also flips to negative towards the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Nao index also flips to negative towards the end of the run. But the sun has a pimple it can't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 So more accuracy with less data? Sounds like BS to me. I find the theory is maybe 50/50 at best, but there have been several major snow events where the models weere all over the place and the 18 and 06Z GFS runs always seemed to be on top of the event better than the 00 and 12Z runs were. On occassion with SW flow events the off hour runs are better at forecasting the mid-level temps than the 12 and 00 runs. Usually the 12 and 00s for some reason seem to be too cool in SW flow events. One of the systems late last winter which pounded interior CT and the Hudson Valley with the overrunning snow considerably was nailed on the off hour runs and the 12 and 00 runs would come in too suppressed and cool. Someone in the New England thread had a theory why it was occurring but I don't remeber what it was. The NAM was sort of suffering the same problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I find the theory is maybe 50/50 at best, but there have been several major snow events where the models weere all over the place and the 18 and 06Z GFS runs always seemed to be on top of the event better than the 00 and 12Z runs were. On occassion with SW flow events the off hour runs are better at forecasting the mid-level temps than the 12 and 00 runs. Usually the 12 and 00s for some reason seem to be too cool in SW flow events. One of the systems late last winter which pounded interior CT and the Hudson Valley with the overrunning snow considerably was nailed on the off hour runs and the 12 and 00 runs would come in too suppressed and cool. Someone in the New England thread had a theory why it was occurring but I don't remeber what it was. The NAM was sort of suffering the same problem. I would love to hear that theory mentioned. I don't doubt that off runs may do better with certain hours or events, it's just that saying less data can produce more accurate results sounds like the last thing someone would say especially when speaking about forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 1322694043[/url]' post='1155425']I would love to hear that theory mentioned. I don't doubt that off runs may do better with certain hours or events, it's just that saying less data can produce more accurate results sounds like the last thing someone would say especially when speaking about forecasting. It's not less data. It's just not new data. Except for newer initialization info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Thought it would've been posted here by now... before the colder temperatures return it looks like the SE ridge makes its last strong comeback for a while early next week: The 18z DGEX shows widespread 60s again; even though it may be too amplified for Tuesday, from my experience the DGEX actually isn't that bad when it comes to highs in warm spells. Even the GFS with its cold bias has nearly 60 degrees. The cold afterwards still doesn't look very impressive though, the strongest cold appears to be focused over the central US as no blocking builds, the EPO slowly trends towards neutral with a dropping PNA, and the SE ridge weakens but doesn't fall apart. IMO, the December 7-15 time frame is setting up for some transient cold periods with occasional ridging in between, resulting in near-potentially slightly above average temperatures, with the main storm track staying to our north and the coldest departures focusing over the central US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 It's a gradient pattern and in the long range the gradient pushes south and puts us in a good spot for the swfe events. This is really starting to look like 1993-94. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 this song goes out to everybody who still thinks that it's going to snow here in the next two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 this song goes out to everybody who still thinks that it's going to snow here in the next two weeks. Got a song for AG3 who thinks there are going to be 20+ small to moderate events this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 This is really starting to look like 1993-94. The board would explode if that were to happen. Especially NYC on north to SNE. I believe NYC had a slow December, a good January, an excellent February and a good March. Total of 19 events of 1" or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 This is really starting to look like 1993-94. The 18Z GFS from Day 10 onward looks exactly like the first 2 weeks of February in 1994, but as we talked about here yesterday, a gradient pattern that is suppressed to that degree is very rare. And given the AO/NAO and EPO situation its hard to think the GFS is not 500 or maybe more miles too south with the gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 The board would explode if that were to happen. Especially NYC on north to SNE. I believe NYC had a slow December, a good January, an excellent February and a good March. Total of 19 events of 1" or more. There would be mass suicides though from Philly south. Someone posted last night that Philly received 20" while ABE received 75". AC received 8", while NYC received close to 60" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 This is really starting to look like 1993-94. Yeah, in fantasy land on a model that was off by 3 degrees with a 850mb temp forecast at 18 hours just a month ago...and has the lowest verification score of any model in the long term just a week ago. It could look like Jan 1996 x 2 and I still wouldn't get remotely excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 There would be mass suicides though from Philly south. Someone posted last night that Philly received 20" while ABE received 75". AC received 8", while NYC received close to 60" The 2/8 and 2/11 events had massive gradients from just south of the NYC area. I think the 2/8 event there were decent snows down to Trenton, but the 2/11 one there was a marked dropoff literally from LGA to JFK and then south of there it was mainly all sleet or freezing rain. 1/7 also there was about 7-8 inches of snow at Bridgeport but all freezing rain and sleet for LI/NYC...although the far north fork did see decent snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 1, 2011 Author Share Posted December 1, 2011 Trials insists that this is the model of choice to use in the long range. no, i never said that. Nice try. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 i hope those birds flying around trials and earthlight's sigs fly south in 22 days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 1, 2011 Author Share Posted December 1, 2011 i hope those birds flying around trials and earthlight's sigs fly south in 22 days... snow birds, otherwise known as pattern busters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 snow birds, otherwise known as pattern busters. wheres the bustin then? do something birds...do something! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 1, 2011 Author Share Posted December 1, 2011 wheres the bustin then? do something birds...do something! we got the euro to pop a weenie solution right away, that's a start they take a few days to start working, full potency generally three weeks from when they go up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 1993-94 snowfalls IN Central Park...... date.............................. amount... 12/11..........0.46"...2.9" rain to snow...4" Brooklyn... 12/29-30......0.26"...4.0" all snow...powder... 1/3-4...........0.60"...1.0" snow to sleet to freezing rain to rain before ending... 1/7-8...........0.68"...1.2" freezing rain to sleet to freezing rain... 1/12............0.48"...2.9" snow to sleet to freezing rain to rain before ending... 1/17............1.36"...1.3" snow quickly to freezing rain to rain to mix at midnight... 1/18............0.22"...1.0" mix ends as snow...snow squalls afternoon... 1/26............0.32"...4.5" all snow...powder... 1/27-28.......1.93"...0.1" sleet to heavy rain... 2/1..............0.04"...0.6" some light snow... 2/8-9...........1.29"...9.0" snow to sleet to sleet and freezing rain back to snow before ending... 2/11............1.09".12.8" snow to sleet and freezing rain ends as snow... 2/23-24.......0.75"...2.6" snow to sleet to freezing rain to rain before ending... 2/26............0.08"...1.4" some light snow...powder... 3/2-3...........1.06"...5.0" snow to sleet to mix to rain before ending... 3/17............0.02"...0.3" early morning snow squall... 3/18............0.26"...2.8" all snow...powder... 17 storms 53.4"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 1, 2011 Author Share Posted December 1, 2011 not that i care what he says, but it appears whoever said JB said 83 cold was coming wasn't being truthful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 1322700543[/url]' post='1155675']1993-94 snowfalls IN Central Park...... date.............................. amount... 12/11..........0.46"...2.9" rain to snow...4" Brooklyn... 12/29-30......0.26"...4.0" all snow...powder... 1/3-4...........0.60"...1.0" snow to sleet to freezing rain to rain before ending... 1/7-8...........0.68"...1.2" freezing rain to sleet to freezing rain... 1/12............0.48"...2.9" snow to sleet to freezing rain to rain before ending... 1/17............1.36"...1.3" snow quickly to freezing rain to rain to mix at midnight... 1/18............0.22"...1.0" mix ends as snow...snow squalls afternoon... 1/26............0.32"...4.5" all snow...powder... 1/27-28.......1.93"...0.1" sleet to heavy rain... 2/1..............0.04"...0.6" some light snow... 2/8-9...........1.29"...9.0" snow to sleet to sleet and freezing rain back to snow before ending... 2/11............1.09".12.8" snow to sleet and freezing rain ends as snow... 2/23-24.......0.75"...2.6" snow to sleet to freezing rain to rain before ending... 2/26............0.08"...1.4" some light snow...powder... 3/2-3...........1.06"...5.0" snow to sleet to mix to rain before ending... 3/17............0.02"...0.3" early morning snow squall... 3/18............0.26"...2.8" all snow...powder... 17 storms 53.4"... LGA had 58"? I believe it was 19 storms and a record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 1, 2011 Author Share Posted December 1, 2011 the 2/11 storm was a great storm, i remember it well, our math teacher came into class and said "from what I hear, sounds like we are going to get hit pretty good" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Oh hey guys. lol Long time without speaking. Don't worry when I come back to the city for winter vacation, that's when it'll snow. December 26th, bet money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 1993-94 snowfalls IN Central Park...... date.............................. amount... 12/11..........0.46"...2.9" rain to snow...4" Brooklyn... 12/29-30......0.26"...4.0" all snow...powder... 1/3-4...........0.60"...1.0" snow to sleet to freezing rain to rain before ending... 1/7-8...........0.68"...1.2" freezing rain to sleet to freezing rain... 1/12............0.48"...2.9" snow to sleet to freezing rain to rain before ending... 1/17............1.36"...1.3" snow quickly to freezing rain to rain to mix at midnight... 1/18............0.22"...1.0" mix ends as snow...snow squalls afternoon... 1/26............0.32"...4.5" all snow...powder... 1/27-28.......1.93"...0.1" sleet to heavy rain... 2/1..............0.04"...0.6" some light snow... 2/8-9...........1.29"...9.0" snow to sleet to sleet and freezing rain back to snow before ending... 2/11............1.09".12.8" snow to sleet and freezing rain ends as snow... 2/23-24.......0.75"...2.6" snow to sleet to freezing rain to rain before ending... 2/26............0.08"...1.4" some light snow...powder... 3/2-3...........1.06"...5.0" snow to sleet to mix to rain before ending... 3/17............0.02"...0.3" early morning snow squall... 3/18............0.26"...2.8" all snow...powder... 17 storms 53.4"... Unc do you have the same thing for 95-96 for the city? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 1, 2011 Author Share Posted December 1, 2011 Oh hey guys. lol Long time without speaking. Don't worry when I come back to the city for winter vacation, that's when it'll snow. December 26th, bet money. We heard you moved to NH with to live on the new Mt. Zucker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Oh hey guys. lol Long time without speaking. Don't worry when I come back to the city for winter vacation, that's when it'll snow. December 26th, bet money. Boxing Day redux? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 We heard you moved to NH with to live on the new Mt. Zucker. haha Yeah man, smoking that good stuff all day. Actually, I'm in New Paltz, like 90 miles north of the city. We got pretty good snows in October. I'll be back for a month from mid-December to late January. Hopefully this dreadful pattern changes by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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