Snow_Miser Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I think we can all agree upon that the upcoming few weeks will be cooler than the last few weeks have been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 30, 2011 Author Share Posted November 30, 2011 I think we can all agree upon that the upcoming few weeks will be cooler than the last few weeks have been. Earthlight may have to shut down the spa for a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I think we can all agree upon that the upcoming few weeks will be cooler than the last few weeks have been. Excellent post. :snowman: :snowman: :snowman: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Earthlight may have to shut down the spa for a few days. But then the +20 C 850s return and he will be able to turn it back on again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 its december, its supposed to get colder. Just saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 It's going to snow. I don't know when though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 It hurts to look at that gfs map. Euro not much better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I think we can all agree upon that the upcoming few weeks will be cooler than the last few weeks have been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 30, 2011 Author Share Posted November 30, 2011 It hurts to look at that gfs map. Euro not much better they both pretty much suck for different reasons, just different versions of suckage and suckiness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Lol... Alaskan PV -west coast trough earlier this month. Ridging off shore and into Alaska- west coast trough. Both dominant SE ridges! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Wow SnowGoose, you know how to add. Congrats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 they both pretty much suck for different reasons, just different versions of suckage and suckiness. The EC does not suck. It shows near normal here, with cold really building up by Hudson Bay, probably getting ready to head SE. The GFS on the other hand, shows a massive -PNA with a torch here and no hope of getting cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 30, 2011 Author Share Posted November 30, 2011 The EC does not suck. It shows near normal here, with cold really building up by Hudson Bay, probably getting ready to head SE. The GFS on the other hand, shows a massive -PNA with a torch here and no hope of getting cold. ec sucks because that pattern breaks down on day 11 and is exact opposite of the nice pattern it showed yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 ec sucks because that pattern breaks down on day 11 and is exact opposite of the nice pattern it showed yesterday I don't know if that pattern really SHOULD break down, based on that map. Don't analyze an 11-day map literally. The EC looks very Dec 1993ish, while the GFS looks very Dec 2001ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I don't know if that pattern really SHOULD break down, based on that map. Don't analyze an 11-day map literally. The EC looks very Dec 1993ish, while the GFS looks very Dec 2001ish. Well, its a bit better than that. Dec 2001 averaged +8 to +10 over states like MN and WI. The forecast by the GFS through 12/15 would make it a virtual impossibility for them to reach that plateau unless the final 15 days of the month blow torched. December 1996 was more what I thought the GFS was showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 GFS has the cold swinging through after the front passes . The 12z run didn't . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 18z much different then 12z. Has cold holding from fropa to the end of the run with a couple earthlight dreaded swfe event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Laughable differences with 12z. Gfs is a joke of a model for the medium and long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Laughable differences with 12z. Gfs is a joke of a model for the medium and long range. Trials insists that this is the model of choice to use in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Looks like a gradient pattern at the end of the gfs. Good run for our area. Cold throughout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 GFS has the cold swinging through after the front passes . The 12z run didn't . It still looks like the kind of pattern earthlight was talking about, except there's no complete absence of cold air this time. I was thinking 12z was too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Laughable differences with 12z. Gfs is a joke of a model for the medium and long range. Yes it is a joke. Only right 50% of the time after 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Laughable differences with 12z. Gfs is a joke of a model for the medium and long range. Its useful for trends if it shows trhe same general thing run to run in the long range beyond Day 10 but its a pretty bad model 140-240 hours overall compared to the Euro. Its very odd that the 12Z run was off the track compared to this run and most of the previous ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 1322693216[/url]' post='1155385']Trials insists that this is the model of choice to use in the long range. Insane differences with 12z. Quite pathetic if u ask me. 18z is average to below average from day 7-15 with a barrage of swfe events days 10-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 It's a gradient pattern and in the long range the gradient pushes south and puts us in a good spot for the swfe events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Insane differences with 12z. Quite pathetic if u ask me. 18z is average to below average from day 7-15 with a barrage of swfe events days 10-15. The 06Z run showed that sort of thing as well. This could be the JB theory at work that the 06 and 18Z runs of the GFS are better at forecasting the long range Day 8 or 10 and beyond because the model has less data to work with and confuse itself so to speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 1322693533[/url]' post='1155405']The 06Z run showed that sort of thing as well. This could be the JB theory at work that the 06 and 18Z runs of the GFS are better at forecasting the long range Day 8 or 10 and beyond because the model has less data to work with and confuse itself so to speak. 18z is better then 6z overall though. 18z if real, would keep us pretty cold days 10 and beyond and average days 7-10. With a couple shots at mixing type swfe events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 The 06Z run showed that sort of thing as well. This could be the JB theory at work that the 06 and 18Z runs of the GFS are better at forecasting the long range Day 8 or 10 and beyond because the model has less data to work with and confuse itself so to speak. So more accuracy with less data? Sounds like BS to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 GFS is getting there....the FROPA still seems a bit to amplified compared to the Euro, causing warmer air to linger in a touch longer....otherwise, this is a big bow to the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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