Brian5671 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Big difference between a cool down for a few days and a real pattern change. Originally i though the high lattitude blocking would return end of November per the three month cycle we had been seeing, but its gone the other way. No, looking at the models, there are no signs of a real pattern change, and the forcing mechanisms such as MJO back this up, along with the activity of the sun. Now we see even the PAC breaks down which is what is helping us cool off so if you lose the PAC, we are going to torch. Jumping up and down because we cool off is cute and all but if you are looking for snow and sustained cold, there are no indications its around the corner. That doesnt mean there won't be a snow showers, or post frontal snow, or a SWFE, but any proclamations of intense cold or big snow storms are fantasy for at least three weeks. so we have you saying no cold for 3 weeks and JB saying x-mas 83 cold on the table.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 30, 2011 Author Share Posted November 30, 2011 LOL, nothing supports his BS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 LOL, nothing supports his BS. And nothing supports a November pattern in december either! So looks like you both may be spewing BS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Big difference between a cool down for a few days and a real pattern change. Originally i though the high lattitude blocking would return end of November per the three month cycle we had been seeing, but its gone the other way. No, looking at the models, there are no signs of a real pattern change, and the forcing mechanisms such as MJO back this up, along with the activity of the sun. Now we see even the PAC breaks down which is what is helping us cool off so if you lose the PAC, we are going to torch. Jumping up and down because we cool off is cute and all but if you are looking for snow and sustained cold, there are no indications its around the corner. That doesnt mean there won't be a snow showers, or post frontal snow, or a SWFE, but any proclamations of intense cold or big snow storms are fantasy for at least three weeks. Most stress in this life is getting upset things you can't control..I wish I was god and could control the weather,but i cant,so I take what I can get..to get upset at a computer run isn't gonna make it different..at least we won't be driving on icy roads..I don't know, there is always a positive for everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 i think most of us know this Trials...its kinda hard to just slam on the brakes and turn to a superior pattern after a real crappy one. but a few cool shots is nice to see but moreso the real crappy pattern looks to be fading, albeit slowly and transitionally.and there is nothing to indicate that the real crappy pattern returns for good so to make the argument that the cool shots last only a few days and we return to a warm pattern is just as false as saying a good pattern is coming soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 30, 2011 Author Share Posted November 30, 2011 Most stress in this life is getting upset things you can't control..I wish I was god and could control the weather,but i cant,so I take what I can get..to get upset at a computer run isn't gonna make it different..at least we won't be driving on icy roads..I don't know, there is always a positive for everything. I'm not upset, but if people are looking for realistic forecasts and opinions, this is mine. I am cool either way, both in who listens to me and what we get for weather. I caution those who get easily dissapointed and upset when things dont break cold and snowy to be very careful who they believe with the forecast through December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Big difference between a cool down for a few days and a real pattern change. Originally i though the high lattitude blocking would return end of November per the three month cycle we had been seeing, but its gone the other way. No, looking at the models, there are no signs of a real pattern change, and the forcing mechanisms such as MJO back this up, along with the activity of the sun. Now we see even the PAC breaks down which is what is helping us cool off so if you lose the PAC, we are going to torch. Jumping up and down because we cool off is cute and all but if you are looking for snow and sustained cold, there are no indications its around the corner. That doesnt mean there won't be a snow showers, or post frontal snow, or a SWFE, but any proclamations of intense cold or big snow storms are fantasy for at least three weeks. I don't expect that there will be any KU or even major snow events for the NYC metro area this winter (sooner or later it HAD to happen!), I do expect we'll see 2 or 3 moderate events though and wind up somewhere near 15-20 inches. The NAO if you ask me is a lost cause at this point, I am not as convinced about the AO however, there is a possibility it will go negative at some point in January and may stay there for a sizeable portion of the remainder of the winter thereafter. The NAO however I feel will spend most if not virtually all of the Dec 1 -Mar 1 period in the positive phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 And nothing supports a November pattern in december either! So looks like you both may be spewing BS... Kind of hard for the +20 departures to continue for 2 months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 30, 2011 Author Share Posted November 30, 2011 i think most of us know this Trials...its kinda hard to just slam on the brakes and turn to a superior pattern after a real crappy one. but a few cool shots is nice to see but moreso the real crappy pattern looks to be fading, albeit slowly and transitionally. I think there are more than a few who see the cool down and think big storms and winter are here. Im happy we are cooling down too, regardless of my six iron, its winter time, not summer time, but putting snow goggles and weenies aside, my honest opinion is we have three weeks, at a minimum, to see substantial changes, and its very possible we get uber warm around the 15th, like HM says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Maybe not 20, but November '01-Feb '02 were all 5 degrees or greater than normal (Dec-Jan were +7) Kind of hard for the +20 departures to continue for 2 months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Maybe not 20, but November '01-Feb '02 were all 5 degrees or greater than normal (Dec-Jan were +7) I was just talking about the torch temps.....truth is pattern is changing to temps at or just above normal.....but not a great pattern for snow.....what happens mid month is up for grabs.....but early indications are mild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 30, 2011 Author Share Posted November 30, 2011 who said plus 20 departures? i do think december ends up at least +3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Maybe not 20, but November '01-Feb '02 were all 5 degrees or greater than normal (Dec-Jan were +7) and don't forget the dryness..most places had a 2 inches (or even less) or less of rain most of those months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Nice outside right now. Temps dropping into the mid 40's and a cold wind. Feels like the end of November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 who said plus 20 departures? i do think december ends up at least +3. I was backing you up to atown post...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 30, 2011 Author Share Posted November 30, 2011 I was backing you up to atown post...... I read his first line and dis-regarded, it was an attack post, not interested in that kind of disco. But thank you for backing me up. I usually have huge snow goggles, I can't put the on right now if I want to be realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 i get your points Trials, i do. and you know im a joker so please take my posts with a light tone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Big difference between a cool down for a few days and a real pattern change. Originally i though the high lattitude blocking would return end of November per the three month cycle we had been seeing, but its gone the other way. No, looking at the models, there are no signs of a real pattern change, and the forcing mechanisms such as MJO back this up, along with the activity of the sun. Now we see even the PAC breaks down which is what is helping us cool off so if you lose the PAC, we are going to torch. Jumping up and down because we cool off is cute and all but if you are looking for snow and sustained cold, there are no indications its around the corner. That doesnt mean there won't be a snow showers, or post frontal snow, or a SWFE, but any proclamations of intense cold or big snow storms are fantasy for at least three weeks. This is a good post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 30, 2011 Author Share Posted November 30, 2011 i get your points Trials, i do. and you know im a joker so please take my posts with a light tone. I am totally cool with all your points and your tone. This is a place for disco, not group think. I only have issues with one poster, and I choose to rise above that. You all know the second I see a real threat I am going to honk and will post euro maps, talk about blocking scream at Noreaster27, etc etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 for what its worth..i do like the look of the euro 8-10day 500mb mean. moreso how the pacific looks, atlantic is still turrable. but i suck, i just look at maps. what happens after that i have no clue.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Trials should calm down and stop being a weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 30, 2011 Author Share Posted November 30, 2011 Trials should calm down and stop being a weenie this makes no sense. A weenie would say 83 cold is on the way. If people only want to hear forecasts of cold and snow, they have you, JB, and plenty of others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 yea come on now...trials isnt being a weenie. his snow goggles are off and hes being logical. i, and some others, were just teasing how depressing his posts have been since he found his golf game, etc. lol. but lets not spew nonsense now. keep it real folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 30, 2011 Author Share Posted November 30, 2011 yea come on now...trials isnt being a weenie. his snow goggles are off and hes being logical. i, and some others, were just teasing how depressing his posts have been since he found his golf game, etc. lol. but lets not spew nonsense now. keep it real folks! I want snow man, a lot of it. But I can't lie to you all, i want your respect. And I have played plenty of golf dont need any more right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Folks your missing the point..Henry Margusity is calling for a mild winter. Throw out all model runs and get your snowblowers ready! Epic Winter coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 30, 2011 Author Share Posted November 30, 2011 Folks your missing the point..Henry Margusity is calling for a mild winter. Throw out all model runs and get your snowblowers ready! Epic Winter coming this is the kind of logic i can support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 btw way off topic....i think im the last 30 something year old to get a smartphone. i had the prototype samsung flip phone for what seems like decades and finally moved up to the iphone 4s. so, what kind of weather apps can i get for this thing? im an unemployed poker player on a downswing so the cheaper the better lol...free would be awesome too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 this is the kind of logic i can support. Realistically speaking though the pattern is certainly better than what we have seen in November. Whether transient or not it's going to get colder but the models offer no hope for a sustained pattern change the next 2-3 weeks. We have a lot of fixing to do and it starts with the AO and NAO. Until we see changes with those teleconnectors, it's going to be a boring pattern. I say if things don't look good by the 20th looking out into the long range, the first half of the winter will be in serious trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 30, 2011 Author Share Posted November 30, 2011 btw way off topic....i think im the last 30 something year old to get a smartphone. i had the prototype samsung flip phone for what seems like decades and finally moved up to the iphone 4s. so, what kind of weather apps can i get for this thing? im an unemployed poker player on a downswing so the cheaper the better lol...free would be awesome too... AG3 and Sundog and Earthlight will hook you up with Iphone stuff, they are all fan boys. Also, there is a good thread in OT on the phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 good looks...will check out OT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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