Chris L Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 The PNA is just as important. Check last year. I think at one point we had a -NAO and a -PNA. The -NAO didn't really help us. That's because the NAO went East based and the trough didn't get too sharp (offset by the negative PNA). February 2010 is a classic example of a Atlantic driven pattern; of course, El Nino helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 I've always said I rather have an ok pacific and an awesome atlantic, than an awesome pacific and atrocious atlantic. Getting the AK vortex to weaken and pump a PNA ridge is still a step in the right direction. I support this hundred percent because our historic events have all had a dominant Atlantic; somc exceptions, of course, like JAN 27 and PD II... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 That PNA ridge is definitely going to bring the cold air in, but could it lead to early December snow? Maybe? There have been many times were the PNA was solely responsible for giving us a good storm. A nice positive PNA has more power than a weakly negative NAO in my opinion. A -PNA with a neutral or weak NAO isn't going to help, sometimes even a moderate -NAO can't overcome a negative PNA so the +PNA is a great step. I'm hoping we do get some high latitude blocking as it would greatly assist with us getting a storm. At least things are finally beginning to change to colder, but before that happens, expect at least another 7-10 days of very mild weather. I think the Jan 27 storm was driven by a +PNA. I could be wrong but the NAO was positive when that storm occured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 I think the Jan 27 storm was driven by a +PNA. I could be wrong but the NAO was positive when that storm occured. Looking at the NAAR, yes, it went briefly postitive during it and a huge help of timing saved us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 That's because the NAO went East based and the trough didn't get too sharp (offset by the negative PNA). February 2010 is a classic example of a Atlantic driven pattern; of course, El Nino helps. Agree, the -NAO pattern we had during the El Nino of 2009-10 was the strongest since the 50's. Overall the models performed very well that winter, a lot had to do with the predictiblity of El Nino and having such a strong subtropical jet. If the -NAO didn't exist, that winter would of been a blowtorch.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 I agree, while we get no help from the atlantic, it's great to see the pacific fix itself on tonights GFS. It may be transient though, because it you look at the 300 plus hour panels, the AK vortex looks to strengthen and beat the PNA ridge down. That's in fantasy land, but this is a step in the right direction...... yeah but thats about the only good thing on that run. Usually if there is going to be a cold and snowy la nina winter in the east we see a flip to a -NAO pattern in late november. Thats looking highly unlikely now. The water temperatures off Greenland also dont favor a -NAO. Hopefully when we do finally get into a -nao pattern it locks in for a month and we get hammered lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=27814 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 http://ggweather.com/loops/ens_mean_12z_500_all.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 I think having the NAO negative is a little more important for us. But more often than not, what decides if a west or east based block produces, around here, seems to depend on the PNA pattern. I also think having the EPO negative, along with the +PNA helps more, when the NAO is crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 I've always said I rather have an ok pacific and an awesome atlantic, than an awesome pacific and atrocious atlantic. Getting the AK vortex to weaken and pump a PNA ridge is still a step in the right direction. 1960-1 and 1993-4 had bad Atlantics and we did OK both winters. That being said a "hat trick" of great winters is hard to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 Man that 6z GFS is ugly. This may sound premature but I have zero expectations this winter so I don't get upset if it doesn't work out. The lack of any real good cold blast is the most frustrating part at this point. It's going to feel like Halloween well into December and that doesn't put me in a Christmasy mood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 Come on down from the ledge....you have alot to live for! Man that 6z GFS is ugly. This may sound premature but I have zero expectations this winter so I don't get upset if it doesn't work out. The lack of any real good cold blast is the most frustrating part at this point. It's going to feel like Halloween well into December and that doesn't put me in a Christmasy mood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 Man that 6z GFS is ugly. This may sound premature but I have zero expectations this winter so I don't get upset if it doesn't work out. The lack of any real good cold blast is the most frustrating part at this point. It's going to feel like Halloween well into December and that doesn't put me in a Christmasy mood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 23, 2011 Author Share Posted November 23, 2011 6z did the same thing yesterday only to have the 12z come back. GGEM ensembles are cold like the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 6z did the same thing yesterday only to have the 12z come back. GGEM ensembles are cold like the gfs. I'm usually a negative person but I am getting excited with the pattern towards the middle of December. Euro ensembles are showing a +NAO in the long range, while the GFS ensembles have a -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 Im thinking the middle to the end of december to actually get something that resembles a good winter pattern of cold and stormy for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 A few members are now showing the NAO going negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 Yeah december is def canceled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 I wonder how many people cancelled December last year in November. Yeah december is def canceled Ok Ji. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 1322061028[/url]' post='1138875']Yeah december is def canceled Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 23, 2011 Author Share Posted November 23, 2011 Yeah december is def canceled I would think that hurts your busines, unless you can cut lawns in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 Agreed. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 You're going to be crying when you're the first person in this thread changing over in any slopfest we may get this year. South Brooklyn FTL. I'll probably look like a tundra to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 You're going to be crying when you're the first person in this thread changing over in any slopfest we may get this year. South Brooklyn FTL. I'll probably look like a tundra to you. My are has been lucky in the past 2 years. In big storms, we usually either change over or mix. Over 50 inches in 2009-2010 and over 60 inches last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 kinda pathetic when you give up on the future.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 I think we will have a period of snow and cold this winter..but to expect another 40-50 inch winter,or another major snowstorm in December is unreasonable..things always even out..and nobody can complain after the last 10 years which have been amazing for snow in this area..I remember the 70's and 80's and most of the 90's..I know what a snow drought is like.It was like pulling teeth to get snow in those decades..growing up December was usually mild and snowless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 I would think that hurts your busines, unless you can cut lawns in December. Tons of leaf clean-ups left and i have two drainage jobs on the back burner if the weather is nice. The grass is still green in my town......with ensembles showing the same old song, wake me up in january .....atleast I plowed once already .....doubt we do it again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 You're going to be crying when you're the first person in this thread changing over in any slopfest we may get this year. South Brooklyn FTL. I'll probably look like a tundra to you. +1 07-08 incoming. Probably less snow this year......metfans biggest storm has already come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 I wonder how many people cancelled December last year in November. Ok Ji. Last december sucked up until the end...we had a dusting early on and a missed storm on 12/19...12/26 saved us.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 23, 2011 Author Share Posted November 23, 2011 gfs is progressive with the closed 500 low which is good, it allows another stronger vort to come down while some ridging tries to build towards alaska. Looking foward to the next few frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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