Stormlover74 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I don't know that he's necessarily talking about the Northeast though. It can be cold and snowy for much of the rest of the country and not here. He's not the only one saying this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 The differences between the euro and the GFS are laughable. The Euro is cold to very cold after the fropa while the GFS was pumping the SE ridge and forming 2 more lakes cutters. The 2 models can not be any different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 The moral of the story is that we have the potential for a big low along the east coast.. Where it is too early to say...Does the cold air arrive in ahead or during or after? Its apparent when you watch the GFS that it is struggling ..ECM has been more consistent ..despite cut off or no cut off... GFS has been slowing the storm down with each run.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 This could be the first time I've ever seen the GFS show a SE ridge and the Euro have the cold air covering everyone, very unusual to see both models on those sides of the fence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 This could be the first time I've ever seen the GFS show a SE ridge and the Euro have the cold air covering everyone, very unusual to see both models on those sides of the fence. Just about to post that. GIven the position of the PV over the Hudson bay, I'd think the Euro would make more sense, rather than having a low cut like the GFS shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Just about to post that. GIven the position of the PV over the Hudson bay, I'd think the Euro would make more sense, rather than having a low cut like the GFS shows There is a split flow nature to the pattern the next few days, that could be whats throwing the GFS off, it can have serious issues with those regimes at times, particularly during the winter months, it has been known to blow torch the East Coast on runs when there is a split flow going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 cue Trials comeback to winter in 3....2....1.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 cue Trials euro denial in 3....2....1.... fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 fixed lol...noooooo. its only a matter of time before he returns to the light, esp since its the euro showing the goods and not the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 DT likes: *** ALERT *** POTENTIAL -- POTENTIAL for Severe cold outbreak DEC 6-10 for Entire Eastern half of the US ..2 waves of serious cold FIRST wave of cold DEC 5-6-7... 2nd wave of serious Cold DEC 9-10-11.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 who cares if the pattern shows cold? unless it snows, let it be warm and sunny !!!!!!!!! I want the GFS to be right, it's too early for cold. I know I'm gonna get tomatoes thrown at me for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Jesus, a week out and it could be 25 or 55 DT likes: *** ALERT *** POTENTIAL -- POTENTIAL for Severe cold outbreak DEC 6-10 for Entire Eastern half of the US ..2 waves of serious cold FIRST wave of cold DEC 5-6-7... 2nd wave of serious Cold DEC 9-10-11.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 30, 2011 Author Share Posted November 30, 2011 Even if you take the euro verbatim, its a rain storm followed by cold that probably breaks down very fast given what happens out west. Its not a winter pattern. Oh, and all that ridging people were drooling over yesterday by greenland is totally gone. Its a rainstorm to cold back to a return flow most likely at 12z. GFS pattern makes more sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 The artic shot around the 6th is fading away both the GFS and Euro. It's now the Dec. 9-10th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 30, 2011 Author Share Posted November 30, 2011 the core of the cold going by 850 temps doesnt even get to us on the euro, its lifts out very quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Even if you take the euro verbatim, its a rain storm followed by cold that probably breaks down very fast given what happens out west. Its not a winter pattern. Oh, and all that ridging people were drooling over yesterday by greenland is totally gone. Its a rainstorm to cold back to a return flow most likely at 12z. GFS pattern makes more sense. But others say the Euro pattern makes more sense, and it shows cold through the period. We'll have to see. Could go either way. I do think the GFS had an unusually mild run, though, given its ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 might be better off just forecasting climo in the long range at this point.. It'll probably end up being more accurate than anything else at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Euro might not be a snow pattern but it most certainly is a cold period. From days 7 (after fropa) to 10 days and beyond, temps are average to below average for sure. Much better then this crap we've had the past 2-3 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 It's never going to snow ever again. Everybody just log off and spend some time with your families. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Euro is NOTHING like GFS post fropa on day 6-7. Through hour 216. At that hour the entire country is engulfed in cold weather with the 850 line running down to Texas. Appears a nice +PNA as well. And a storm forming in the Midwest as well. Wow what a surprise - GFS SUCKS AND YOU GUYS FOLLOW IT. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 the core of the cold going by 850 temps doesnt even get to us on the euro, its lifts out very quickly Alight so temperatures in the lower 40s is not different then temperatures in the 60s to 70s.. And the model only goes to 240 hrs ...that we non mets have access to so the core of the cold is not even into your area yet.... I really hope you get no snow this winter season ..banter or not ...you can tell when a person means what they are saying... Wishing 90s your way.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Euro might not be a snow pattern but it most certainly is a cold period. From days 7 (after fropa) to 10 days and beyond, temps are average to below average for sure. Much better then this crap we've had the past 2-3 weeks. And better than some late 90s December La Ninas http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/1999/us1207.php The lack of any cold air there is astonishing, even with a shallow trough covering the whole west-central part of the country. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/1998/us1204.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 the core of the cold going by 850 temps doesnt even get to us on the euro, its lifts out very quickly your getting depressing dood.... couple days of cold use to be better than no cold, for you. lately, ur just a debbie downer cuz your 6 iron has magically appeared. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Euro might not be a snow pattern but it most certainly is a cold period. From days 7 (after fropa) to 10 days and beyond, temps are average to below average for sure. Much better then this crap we've had the past 2-3 weeks. exactly. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 And better than some late 90s December La Ninas http://www.meteo.psu...1999/us1207.php The lack of any cold air there is astonishing, even with a shallow trough covering the whole west-central part of the country. http://www.meteo.psu...1998/us1204.php so gross. those late 90s winters were effin horrendous....after 95/96, felt like the deep south around here with no end in sight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 so gross. those late 90s winters were effin horrendous....after 95/96, felt like the deep south around here with no end in sight. one of my papers back when I was in Synoptic class was a macroclimatology study on the transitions from split flow and zonal patterns to strongly amplified patterns from the Pacific through North America. It was comparitive study from the 95-96 season to the 96-97 season.. what a difference it was!! like night and day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 one of my papers back when I was in Synoptic class was a macroclimatology study on the transitions from split flow and zonal patterns to strongly amplified patterns from the Pacific through North America. It was comparitive study from the 95-96 season to the 96-97 season.. what a difference it was!! like night and day interesting... wasnt 98 a raging el nino? or was that 99? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 30, 2011 Author Share Posted November 30, 2011 Big difference between a cool down for a few days and a real pattern change. Originally i though the high lattitude blocking would return end of November per the three month cycle we had been seeing, but its gone the other way. No, looking at the models, there are no signs of a real pattern change, and the forcing mechanisms such as MJO back this up, along with the activity of the sun. Now we see even the PAC breaks down which is what is helping us cool off so if you lose the PAC, we are going to torch. Jumping up and down because we cool off is cute and all but if you are looking for snow and sustained cold, there are no indications its around the corner. That doesnt mean there won't be a snow showers, or post frontal snow, or a SWFE, but any proclamations of intense cold or big snow storms are fantasy for at least three weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 97-98 was interesting... wasnt 98 a raging el nino? or was that 99? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 interesting... wasnt 98 a raging el nino? or was that 99? 1997-98 was the El Nino and 1998-99 was a relatively high end moderate La Nina similar to last winter and 2009-2010 was similar to but weaker than the 1997-98 El Nino. 1996-97 was relatively neutral and similar to 2001-2002 overall in that it was a neutral following a weak La Nina. There have been some clunkers in this region in the neutral following weak Nina over the course of the last century or more...its definitely one of the more grim ENSO regimes for us it seems. Often times there are issues with lack of any subtropical jet as well as there being a tendency for the jet to not want to buckle, I don't like neutral winters for this reason because it seems you need alot of help from the AO/NAO/EPO in thos winters in order to get the cold air forced into the lower 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.