Momza Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 The 12z GFS and the 0Z Euro can not be more different over the next 240 hours. How have these models faired for todays & this weeks weather going back 240? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 How have these models faired for todays & this weeks weather going back 240? The GFS had its worst performance in 5 years for the last five days. Someone posted that yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 How have these models faired for todays & this weeks weather going back 240? although that probably is a nice to know, I'm not sure the logic works like that with the models.. it could go on a horrible stretch for a period of time and then go on an OK stretch... depends on what is happening globally at any given period of time... what we can say with a little more certainty is that a blocking pattern is a good time to go with persistance and I would generally expect a bit more stability and consensus with that type of regime, but this is not the case.. we have a pretty dyamic type of flow going on here... one thump anywhere is just gonna throw it in total disarray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I am looking at some data. Ok, the cold shots are going to be transient in the near future but who knows what the hell is going to happen by mid to late December. No point in cancelling December and winter right now. A lot of people did the same thing last year and looked what happened on Dec 26. I know the NAO and AO were already negative but who knows, it might go negative by that time again. Patience my friend ( just like DT said this morning ) Anthony... December 2009 and 2010 had a huge west based block along with ridgiing out west (classic downstream ridgiing during that month). We do not have thing close to it in 2011. We will wait until probably January or whenever.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 The GFS ensembles starting next week doesn't show any warm air in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 The global GFS ensembles don't really show any sense of -NAO.. the heights are pretty low across Greenland and around that whole general area. The ridge out in the Pacific just sits in the same spot.. and in the wrong spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 The global GFS ensembles don't really show any sense of -NAO.. the heights are pretty low across Greenland and around that whole general area. The ridge out in the Pacific just sits in the same spot.. and in the wrong spot At least it doesn't show any warmth in the longe range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Joe B says GFS is WRONG for next week . Should be colder and last longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Joe B says GFS is WRONG! I'm speechless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Joe B says GFS is WRONG for next week . Should be colder and last longer. JB for president! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 JB for president! your crystal ball is more powerful IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 JB will make a good president . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Joe B says GFS is WRONG for next week . Should be colder and last longer. Tomorrow JB will write a discussion saying this will be a December to Remember...book it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Tomorrow JB will write a discussion saying this will be a December to Remember...book it he did nail the halloween storm, better than any other "met"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 JB is desperate for his December call to verify--talks about Dec 83 Xmas cold snap type cold being on the table for the next week--he's out of his mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 he did nail the halloween storm, better than any other "met"... that's b/c he always goes for the extreme solution, so technically, he's right on all the biggies....let's add up all the busts on the ones that underperformed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 JB is desperate for his December call to verify--talks about Dec 83 Xmas cold snap type cold being on the table for the next week--he's out of his mind. He's not the only one saying this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 The last few GFS runs look exactly like 1996-97, that ridge that just refuses to move from roughly I-95 and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 At least it doesn't show any warmth in the longe range If the pattern is so bad, then why can some runs show lack of warmth through the whole mid-long range? We can get cold in such a pattern, but will struggle for snow chances right now? I'm trying to learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 He's not the only one saying this. JB, LC, Ruggie and DT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 JB, LC, Ruggie and DT There are others too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 No closed low on 12z euro through hour 144. 0z euro has it closed already by hour 96. Much different run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 who cares if the pattern shows cold? unless it snows, let it be warm and sunny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 The last few GFS runs look exactly like 1996-97, that ridge that just refuses to move from roughly I-95 and east. Ehh, it's the gfs. The ensembles have been different than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 who cares if the pattern shows cold? unless it snows, let it be warm and sunny Warm and sunny in the winter? No thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Can somebody with euro access post the post fropa weather please. Some dont have access yet. How are days 7-10 temperature wise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 who cares if the pattern shows cold? unless it snows, let it be warm and sunny move to San Diego or FL... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 He's not the only one saying this. ratings gets the weenies excited and they start spreading the word Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Euro is NOTHING like GFS post fropa on day 6-7. Through hour 216. At that hour the entire country is engulfed in cold weather with the 850 line running down to Texas. Appears a nice +PNA as well. And a storm forming in the Midwest as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Can somebody with euro access post the post fropa weather please. Some dont have access yet. How are days 7-10 temperature wise? www.wunderground.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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