MJO812 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Nobody is abandoning ship. But I don't know how many different ways I can try to illustrate the point that this pattern is bad for the next two weeks at least. You illustrated your point enough. I am just saying that no one should jump ship on this winter.:hug:I don't really see it looking that bad for the next two weeks. It will be colder than what we are seeing now. That there is a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 30, 2011 Author Share Posted November 30, 2011 who cancellled winter and was being serious? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 who cancellled winter and was being serious? A couple of people on here. My sarcasm machine might not be working again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I am looking at some data. Ok, the cold shots are going to be transient in the near future but who knows what the hell is going to happen by mid to late December. No point in cancelling December and winter right now. A lot of people did the same thing last year and looked what happened on Dec 26. I know the NAO and AO were already negative but who knows, it might go negative by that time again. Patience my friend ( just like DT said this morning ) The NAO and AO aren't going to magically go negative without any solar/tropical forcing help. The pattern is bad right now so we need to wash it out.. And the forecasts have been very consistent on both fronts there. High latitude blocking is going to be hard to come by until late December. The quick shots of cold are mainly driven by the big PNA ridges, but they are forecast to break down by Day 7 as well. The MJO is not helping in that regard. There's a difference between abandoning ship and being realistic. As far as people who are completely canceling winter before it even begins, well they are just f*cking stupid and you probably should stop reading their posts and forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 The NAO and AO aren't going to magically go negative without any solar/tropical forcing. And the forecasts have been very consistent on both fronts there. High latitude blocking is going to be hard to come by until late December. The quick shots of cold are mainly driven by the big PNA ridges, but they are forecast to break down by Day 7 as well. The MJO is not helping in that regard. There's a difference between abandoning ship and being realistic. As far as people who are completely canceling winter before it even begins, well they are just f*cking stupid and you probably should stop reading their posts and forecasts. Good idea I rather have January and February cold and snowy than only December snowy. I hope we get blasted those two months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Strongbad Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 The astrophysicist Piers Corbyn, who nailed the December blizzard from last year, said at a conference this year that the Northeast winter wouldn't start in gusto until January. Maybe he sees something on the Sun that the models can't show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SVT450R Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Nobody is abandoning ship. But I don't know how many different ways I can try to illustrate the point that this pattern is bad for the next two weeks at least. Yea i totally understand i'm just saying it's not like it's end of December and we are looking at this pattern going into January then i would be worried. More then likely we will see some flakes flying in the air next week from lake effect snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Good idea I rather have January and February cold and snowy than only December snowy. I hope we get blasted those two months. I'd rather have mid Dec to late Jan, you get your snow for Christmas and then Jan, well Jan is supposed to be cold. By Feb, at least in the city, I'm ready to see the sundresses come back out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I'd rather have mid Dec to late Jan, you get your snow for Christmas and then Jan, well Jan is supposed to be cold. By Feb, at least in the city, I'm ready to see the sundresses come back out. If ( and this is a very big if ) we can get the high latitude blocking to return, I think we could be in for something special for a few weeks once again this winter. Each winter is different/etc but such a blocking episode would likely bring another snow blitz...wouldn't surprise me if this was in January. Speaking of sundresses, how much have you enjoyed the past few days? That said...there's nothing like the first really warm day of the Spring. Skirts and sundresses everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 The astrophysicist Piers Corbyn, who nailed the December blizzard from last year, said at a conference this year that the Northeast winter wouldn't start in gusto until January. Maybe he sees something on the Sun that the models can't show? Scroll to 2:47 http://www.nbcphilad...-134009848.html He thinks January will be very cold with massive snow between Jan 11-14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 High latitude blocking is going to be hard to come by until late December. In my book for NYC, thats OK.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 In my book for NYC, thats OK.......... It's fine. It's just that people want their snow now. And if they have to wait; they'll cancel winter altogether. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 The astrophysicist Piers Corbyn, who nailed the December blizzard from last year, said at a conference this year that the Northeast winter wouldn't start in gusto until January. Maybe he sees something on the Sun that the models can't show? Any link to this guy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 30, 2011 Author Share Posted November 30, 2011 12z gfs changing its tune about the next system, clearly now favoring much stronger ridging ahead of the system which means we don't get the northern energy to swing through first and cool us down. Makes sense given the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Strongbad Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Any link to this guy? Surely. Here's his Twitter acct: http://twitter.com/#!/piers_corbyn Here's his website: http://www.weatheraction.com/ And a Youtube video I found in which he says the Northern Hemisphere is entering another LIA: Unproven methods, but still there is something I like about his style. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Surely. Here's his Twitter acct: http://twitter.com/#!/piers_corbyn Here's his website: http://www.weatheraction.com/ TY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 If ( and this is a very big if ) we can get the high latitude blocking to return, I think we could be in for something special for a few weeks once again this winter. Each winter is different/etc but such a blocking episode would likely bring another snow blitz...wouldn't surprise me if this was in January. Speaking of sundresses, how much have you enjoyed the past few days? That said...there's nothing like the first really warm day of the Spring. Skirts and sundresses everywhere. I was in Seattle until yesterday so I missed the best of it (what freaking miserable weather there, btw). Hopefully we get one more warm spell to close out the season. Totally agree about the first warm Spring day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I am totally enjoying the above average temperatures. After the last few winters, I would gladly accept average highs in the 50's and below average snowfall. Of course, 40's are much more likely, and if its going to be that cold on average, it might as well be cold enough for snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 The first week of December is a disaster on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 The first week of December is a disaster on the GFS. Now you realize that? All models are very warm until the fropa swings through on December 6th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Now you realize that? All models are very warm until the fropa swings through on December 6th. Lol yea this is old news. Not sure why people are voicing their displeasure only now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 What a disgusting run through December 10th. Thank god it's the GFS and it will most likely change at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 30, 2011 Author Share Posted November 30, 2011 well, gfs shows you why you can't go against the science. SE Ridge does its thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 well, gfs shows you why you can't go against the science. SE Ridge does its thing. Congrats Mallow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 The shortwaves diving down from the north and closing off near CA are causing major ridging and SE ridge in our area. These shortwaves will not be sampled until next week. No model knows the strength of them and if they will close off. Way too far out to see that. Until the strength of them are sampled, no one should panic because of the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 The month of December is a disaster on the GFS. FIXED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 The shortwaves diving down from the north and closing off near CA are causing major ridging and SE ridge in our area. These shortwaves will not be sampled until next week. No model knows the strength of them and if they will close off. Way too far out to see that. Until the strength of them are sampled, no one should panic because of the 12z GFS. Good point...of course if the same run of the GFS showed MECS after MECS we'd all be humping it saying it's right...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 The shortwaves diving down from the north and closing off near CA are causing major ridging and SE ridge in our area. These shortwaves will not be sampled until next week. No model knows the strength of them and if they will close off. Way too far out to see that. Until the strength of them are sampled, no one should panic because of the 12z GFS. Agree. The GFS has been back and forth with the cold. Not taking it seriously at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 The 12z GFS and the 0Z Euro can not be more different over the next 240 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 lol at the differences between the op and the ensembles. The ensembles show the cold push of air after the front passes through. Ensembles are below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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