TheTrials Posted November 30, 2011 Author Share Posted November 30, 2011 another +++++ day for temps. What are we, plus 8 right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Based on climatology; you get a half foot of snow in the Greater New York area for the month of December...you consider it a decent month...the 1970 - 2000 data is psycho... Check out the data from Upton...with the crazy 2000 Decembers factored in...the December snow average has been bumped up to 7.11" out there....and the climate record is of pretty decent length...64 years. http://www.bnl.gov/w...hlySnowfall.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 another +++++ day for temps. What are we, plus 8 right now? Around +4. I'll post updates for all stations when I get to work in an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Honestly I'll take cold and dry rather than warm and dry. The latter is beyond depressing when we are in the midst of the holiday season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Around +4. I'll post updates for all stations when I get to work in an hour. What a torch november has been.....if we did not get that and cold snap in late october, I bet I would still have leaves on the trees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 30, 2011 Author Share Posted November 30, 2011 Honestly I'll take cold and dry rather than warm and dry. The latter is beyond depressing when we are in the midst of the holiday season. christmas should be cancelled if its not christmas weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Honestly I'll take cold and dry rather than warm and dry. The latter is beyond depressing when we are in the midst of the holiday season. +1........I rather not see 45+ temps until april ......watching this wintet go down the crapper, its humbling to know I have you guys as tearpy. Some good laughs in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 1322658742[/url]' post='1153859']christmas should be cancelled if its not christmas weather What about Chanukah,Kwanza, and New Years and the nfl playoffs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 What about Chanukah,Kwanza, and New Years and the nfl playoffs? People in shorts and t-shirts with sp50 on there nose at green bay playoff games... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Lee Goldberg says an Arctic outbreak is one week away. At best, it will be a modified cP air mass. DT also says 2 big outbreaks coming next week with poss clipper for New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Through November 29th: NYC: +4.1 LGA: +3.8 JFK: +3.3 ISP: +4.6 BDR: +4.1 EWR +4.1 Those are pretty high numbers but its worst up in New England where most stations are running +5 to +7, all the way up to Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 DT also says 2 big outbreaks coming next week with poss clipper for New England DT uses only the euro for his long term forecasts. The clipper for New England is a cutoff low that we discussed, from the past 2 0z euro runs. The December 9-10th storm has been on the GFS long range for several runs in a row now, including the latest 6z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 DT also says 2 big outbreaks coming next week with poss clipper for New England The first outbreak, looks more modified and transient. Maybe somewhat below normal for one day, before it's starts moderating again. Before that, I think 60 degrees is possible with the SW flow, on Sun or Mon. That would put us near 10 degrees above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 oh well then....looks like DT and JB's December call will be headed for the crapper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 30, 2011 Author Share Posted November 30, 2011 these outbreaks are fantasy given what the euro suggests happens out in the PAC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 The first outbreak, looks more modified and transient. Maybe somewhat below normal for one day, before it's starts moderating again. Before that, I think 60 degrees is possible with the SW flow, on Sun or Mon. That would put us near 10 degrees above normal. the normal monthly max is 60 for December...1960 was 64 degrees a week before the blizzard on the 11-12th... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 The bigger point though is even when it does cool down, its not nearly as cold as originally modeled and in some cases isn't even below normal. If Saturday gets to 48 that will be normal meaning the stretch from 11/20 through at least 12/6 would be above normal. the normal monthly max is 60 for December...1960 was 64 degrees a week before the blizzard on the 11-12th... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Here's something you don't see every day: Bangor, ME: 57 F Orlando, FL: 56 F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Big changes coming! Use physics! Don't model hug! Winter is on the way! Some people never learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 30, 2011 Author Share Posted November 30, 2011 midwest winter, so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Big changes coming! Use physics! Don't model hug! Winter is on the way! Some people never learn. Amen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Even DT don't know why people are cancelling December and winter. He called some people on here knuckleheads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 30, 2011 Author Share Posted November 30, 2011 ggem ensembles continue with IMHO the right idea given the pac, the mjo, and the raging +AO. They have transient cold followed by a return to this ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SVT450R Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Come on people it's November 30 not December 30 give it time to many are abandoning ship. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Come on people it's November 30 not December 30 give it time to many are abandoning ship. I think Ji is a disease. Everyone is acting like Colin and JI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 30, 2011 Author Share Posted November 30, 2011 I think Ji is a disease. Everyone is acting like Colin and JI. perhaps instead of wishing and hoping you should look at some data. There is no support for a sustained pattern change. Transient cold shot with a chance of some frozen precip, north mostly, then a return to what we have seen. The intelligent non hype mets like HM, Will, Coastalwx, and the hobbyists who know what they are talking about like Don S. could not be more clear with their thoughts. Furhter out towards the end of december, who knows. The people I just mentioned are not guessing, they are using the data at hand. Your hype artists like JB etc need you to follow them and post about them. There is a big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SVT450R Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I think Ji is a disease. Everyone is acting like Colin and JI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Come on people it's November 30 not December 30 give it time to many are abandoning ship. Nobody is abandoning ship. But I don't know how many different ways I can try to illustrate the point that this pattern is bad for the next two weeks at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 30, 2011 Author Share Posted November 30, 2011 Nobody is abandoning ship. But I don't know how many different ways I can try to illustrate the point that this pattern is bad for the next two weeks at least. sadly, its a three week deal right now because we have the time period from the 15th through the 20th which may be the most difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 perhaps instead of wishing and hoping you should look at some data. There is no support for a sustained pattern change. Transient cold shot with a chance of some frozen precip, north mostly, then a return to what we have seen. The intelligent non hype mets like HM, Will, Coastalwx, and the hobbyists who know what they are talking about like Don S. could not be more clear with their thoughts. Furhter out towards the end of december, who knows. The people I just mentioned are not guessing, they are using the data at hand. Your hype artists like JB etc need you to follow them and post about them. There is a big difference. I am looking at some data. Ok, the cold shots are going to be transient in the near future but who knows what the hell is going to happen by mid to late December. No point in cancelling December and winter right now. A lot of people did the same thing last year and looked what happened on Dec 26. I know the NAO and AO were already negative but who knows, it might go negative by that time again. Patience my friend ( just like DT said this morning ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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