earthlight Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I think there is a lot of evidence that the NAO will not go negative until at least January...I'm not counting a transient N ATL ridge that might technically make it negative for a few days. I cannot see any blocking up there for the next several weeks...but hopefully I'm wrong and it develops before Christmas. There's nothing pointing to any high latitude blocking through at least the Holidays right now. Obviously things can change, we've seen it before. But almost every teleconnector or tropical/solar forcing rolled forward argues against it. That being said I am not going to jump on the "no blocking this entire winter" bandwagon. I still think things are lining up for a period of ridging building back over Greenland & the Davis Straight. The disconnect between the ousting of the AK Vortex and the Atlantic definitely hurt us...I was shooting for a more favorable period around now. But Canada and the N Atlantic are in such crappy condition that it's going to take a needle threader to get anything done here. We'll need to regroup and try again once the Pacific can get better organized (it's definitely looking like the PNA ridge is going to flatten out by Day 10 allowing the SE Ridge to pump up again). Hopefully we continue to see signs towards January being more supportive of high latitude blocking--which could line up well for a very snowy period. There's still an outside chance we throw a hail mary pass here over the next few weeks...but I don't see it right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 It looks like the ensembles are faster with the front than the op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 There's nothing pointing to any high latitude blocking through at least the Holidays right now. Obviously things can change, we've seen it before. But almost every teleconnector or tropical/solar forcing rolled forward argues against it. That being said I am not going to jump on the "no blocking this entire winter" bandwagon. I still think things are lining up for a period of ridging building back over Greenland & the Davis Straight. The disconnect between the ousting of the AK Vortex and the Atlantic definitely hurt us...I was shooting for a more favorable period around now. But Canada and the N Atlantic are in such crappy condition that it's going to take a needle threader to get anything done here. We'll need to regroup and try again once the Pacific can get better organized (it's definitely looking like the PNA ridge is going to flatten out by Day 10 allowing the SE Ridge to pump up again). Hopefully we continue to see signs towards January being more supportive of high latitude blocking--which could line up well for a very snowy period. There's still an outside chance we throw a hail mary pass here over the next few weeks...but I don't see it right now. Even if you are right, I suppose that could be good for a White Christmas chance. It's late enough that the pattern could be settled by then. In the meantime, there's still interesting stuff to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 There's nothing pointing to any high latitude blocking through at least the Holidays right now. Obviously things can change, we've seen it before. But almost every teleconnector or tropical/solar forcing rolled forward argues against it. That being said I am not going to jump on the "no blocking this entire winter" bandwagon. I still think things are lining up for a period of ridging building back over Greenland & the Davis Straight. The disconnect between the ousting of the AK Vortex and the Atlantic definitely hurt us...I was shooting for a more favorable period around now. But Canada and the N Atlantic are in such crappy condition that it's going to take a needle threader to get anything done here. We'll need to regroup and try again once the Pacific can get better organized (it's definitely looking like the PNA ridge is going to flatten out by Day 10 allowing the SE Ridge to pump up again). Hopefully we continue to see signs towards January being more supportive of high latitude blocking--which could line up well for a very snowy period. There's still an outside chance we throw a hail mary pass here over the next few weeks...but I don't see it right now. I think our only hope over the next 3 weeks is to see the PAC remain semi-decent with enough PNA ridging to at least partially offset the horrendous Atlantic and Arctic patterns. This could easily develop into a complete nightmare if the Atlantic doesn't straighten out a bit by later December and the PAC goes to crap on us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 IIRC, ABE had like 75" that winter and philly was around 20" or maybe a smidge less. Monster gradient there. Even between LGA and JFK I believe there was an almost 15 inch difference or something like that. That's just in the same borough from south to north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Even between LGA and JFK I believe there was an almost 15 inch difference or something like that. That's just in the same borough from south to north. It was about 13"...45.7" to 58.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Again, that setup is a one in 10 chance, thats the classic Northern New England surface low/negative tilted elongated trough combo that I always mention is a tricky setup for this region and has produced several surprise snow falls in the past. 12/11/93 and 12/14/10 are two recent examples. They key to know if they are for real is usually to look at the 700mb RH, if you see high levels you know the event has potential, on this GFS run its quite dry at 700mb. 1 in 10 chance? Those odds are the same as a scratch off. I've won a few scratch offs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 It was about 13"...45.7" to 58.5" Yup. I read the remaining posts after I posted and saw you post it (tongue twister?) That difference in accumulations shows how the south shore had more mixing than did the north shore. 93-94 was the king of high gradient and high mixing potential. All that shallow Arctic air provided an excellent ingredient to produce some of the most polific ice storms this region has even seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 not much to get excited about on the gfs. Still no blocking, jet stream remains north, minimal snow threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 This is a really nutty Euro solution..has a 522 dm cutoff low over the Mid Atlantic at 174 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 186 hrs has a nice Warm sector over Maine and sub 522 1000-500mb thicknesses over our area with heavy heavy snow showers......and now a ridge building towards Eastern Canada and Greenland in response to the mega cutoff. Go figure. Edit: Light band of steady snow at 198 hrs as the cutoff is still going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 -24 C 850 temps over the Dakotas at 210 hours. I've seen enough for tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Very entertaining run hr 216 looks nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 -20 C 850 temps are into Central Missouri by 228 hrs and moving east/southeast. I think the Euro has officially lost it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 How is the pattern in the Pacific with regards to the PNA and EPO on this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Lee Goldberg says an Arctic outbreak is one week away. At best, it will be a modified cP air mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 How is the pattern in the Pacific with regards to the PNA and EPO on this run? It stinks. Transient cold is the rule if you believe the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 12Z January 19th 1994 850 mb station plots plus 1000-500 mb thickness in meters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 186 hrs has a nice Warm sector over Maine and sub 522 1000-500mb thicknesses over our area with heavy heavy snow showers......and now a ridge building towards Eastern Canada and Greenland in response to the mega cutoff. Go figure. Edit: Light band of steady snow at 198 hrs as the cutoff is still going. Don't be shocked if something like this verifies. It already has once this season with the cutoff we just had in places like Arkansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 30, 2011 Author Share Posted November 30, 2011 euro lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Yup. I read the remaining posts after I posted and saw you post it (tongue twister?) That difference in accumulations shows how the south shore had more mixing than did the north shore. 93-94 was the king of high gradient and high mixing potential. All that shallow Arctic air provided an excellent ingredient to produce some of the most polific ice storms this region has even seen. An exceptionally reliable source reported just 37" of snow during the 1993-94 winter (Babylon / South Shore Suffolk County)...while another good source reported 60" just 13 miles to the north on the N. Shore....I have *always* regretted moving to Port Jeff 12 months too late / December 1994 and missing that year...despite a ridiculous # of anomalously good years snow wise since... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 30, 2011 Author Share Posted November 30, 2011 i wonder what the euro 500mb verification will look like next week. Non-sensical solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 i wonder what the euro 500mb verification will look like next week. Non-sensical solution. You have grown cynical.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 It stinks. Transient cold is the rule if you believe the Euro. It doesn't stink if Euro is showing a snowfall in early December..and an arctic outbreak in 10 days..it would be useful to get your mind out of December's of the last decade and take a look at the 70's 80's and 90's..December usually is a mild snowless month..These pre Christmas snows we have been having are very rare..we have been spoiled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 i wonder what the euro 500mb verification will look like next week. Non-sensical solution. with all the cutoffs we have seen the last few months ..it's believable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 30, 2011 Author Share Posted November 30, 2011 You have grown cynical.... being realistic with no snow goggles. The pattern is not good right now, regardless of the weenie solutions the euro seems to spit out only at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Euro has shown this cutoff twice now. Way too far out to see where and who is on the right side of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 30, 2011 Author Share Posted November 30, 2011 gfs ensembles have warmed considerably with the dredded orange shade showing up now in the longer range, ala the ggem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 It doesn't stink if Euro is showing a snowfall in early December..and an arctic outbreak in 10 days..it would be useful to get your mind out of December's of the last decade and take a look at the 70's 80's and 90's..December usually is a mild snowless month..These pre Christmas snows we have been having are very rare..we have been spoiled Based on climatology; you get a half foot of snow in the Greater New York area for the month of December...you consider it a decent month...the 1970 - 2000 data is psycho... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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