ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 in all likelihood, we dont see a below normal month this winter. Very possible. I could see March coming below average after the other 3 are above. We'll probably need a SSW to get a negative departure month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 30, 2011 Author Share Posted November 30, 2011 Very possible. I could see March coming below average after the other 3 are above. We'll probably need a SSW to get a negative departure month. You just know march will be cold but not snowy. Wet too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Three factors killed it, there was alot more clearing the day before than was ever anticipated behind the clipper, as a result the highs reached 21-22 when the forecast was 16-18, the NAO was going positive and the core of the coldest 850 temps went a bit more NE toward Boston. I believe Boston by 11pm was -3 or -4 and NYC was still 5 or 6. The wind was also a bit too NW'ly I think which tends to cause a downslope, if the 850s are not at least -28C I think the wind needs to be more due northerly for NYC to go below 0....wind and strong cold air advection is actually required historically for NYC to go below 0, on nights where its calm NYC has generally struggled to go below 0 because a bit of a heat island effect is maximized it seems. Is it a recpie of H850 temps to be near -30 for NYC to get sub zero? Jan 1994 was -35 H850, wasn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Is it a recpie of H850 temps to be near -30 for NYC to get sub zero? Jan 1994 was -35 H850, wasn't it? No way it was something like -26C I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 30, 2011 Author Share Posted November 30, 2011 Surely there must be something we can do to mess up the AO. Maybe aerosole spray cans? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 The thing I remember most about gradient winters: cold rain and clawing my eyes out as I watch folks 50 miles north get buried in 4-8" events once a week. 2007-08 was the epitome of disaster, and 2008-09 was painful most of the winter. The early March MECS was what saved that winter. Yup. I don't get half the posts over the last two hours. Look we had 30 SWFE's! Whoopty-freaking-doo. They each produced two inches of snow, an hour of sleet, and then rain. No thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 30, 2011 Author Share Posted November 30, 2011 Yup. I don't get half the posts over the last two hours. Look we had 30 SWFE's! Whoopty-freaking-doo. They each produced two inches of snow, an hour of sleet, and then rain. No thanks. I polled this early in the fall. Each to his own. That being said, at this rate, we may not even geta SWFE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Yup. I don't get half the posts over the last two hours. Look we had 30 SWFE's! Whoopty-freaking-doo. They each produced two inches of snow, an hour of sleet, and then rain. No thanks. 93-94 was more 2"-3" of snow then ice and little rain. And throw in a few 12" events. Beautiful winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Jan 16, 1994 had the -30C isotherm just about over NYC at 850mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 93-94 was more 2"-3" of snow then ice and little rain. And throw in a few 12" events. Beautiful winter. 93-94 is a significant outlier among gradient winters...the cold air to the north was unbelievable and it helped to push the gradient to the south. You and I both know that's not where it usually sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 30, 2011 Author Share Posted November 30, 2011 Jan 16, 1994 had the -30C isotherm just about over NYC at 850mb. school buses had trouble starting for several days, only time where i grew up we were delayed for cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 1993-1994: Dec: 6.9" Jan: 12.0" Feb: 26.4" Mar: 8.1" 19 snow events of 1" or more. Also several big ice storms, a sub 0 reading and brutal cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Everything looks good to start with SWFEs in the upper levels..plenty of cold air. And then the low level "erection" sounding as I like to call it sticks out a stuff one right to 1.0 C at some layer which allows for a pounding of sleet. I will say this, if you wish for a SWFE at this latitude and you don't live in the hills of NW NJ, SE NY, or in CT away from the coast...you will more than likely regret it. I despise SWFE's...the mid level warm punch is almost always under forecast..the boundary layer temps are such a tease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 30, 2011 Author Share Posted November 30, 2011 And the low level "erection" sounding as I like to call it probably stuck out a stuff one right to 1.0 C at some layer which allowed for a pounding of sleet. I will say this, if you wish for a SWFE at this latitude and you don't live in the hills of NW NJ, SE NY, or in CT away from the coast...you will more than likely regret it. I despise SWFE's...the mid level warm punch is almost always under forecast..the boundary layer temps are such a tease. this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 school buses had trouble starting for several days, only time where i grew up we were delayed for cold. It had the coldest maximum temperature (1F) that we have seen since January 1981...before that, Dec 31, 1962. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Jan 16, 1994 had the -30C isotherm just about over NYC at 850mb. Thanks Will. Okay, -30 is probably the key factor... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Everything looks good to start with SWFEs in the upper levels..plenty of cold air. And then the low level "erection" sounding as I like to call it sticks out a stuff one right to 1.0 C at some layer which allows for a pounding of sleet. I will say this, if you wish for a SWFE at this latitude and you don't live in the hills of NW NJ, SE NY, or in CT away from the coast...you will more than likely regret it. I despise SWFE's...the mid level warm punch is almost always under forecast..the boundary layer temps are such a tease. Mid levels always warm faster than forecasted. So you can lower you expectations even more than the meager totals predicted to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Everything looks good to start with SWFEs in the upper levels..plenty of cold air. And then the low level "erection" sounding as I like to call it sticks out a stuff one right to 1.0 C at some layer which allows for a pounding of sleet. I will say this, if you wish for a SWFE at this latitude and you don't live in the hills of NW NJ, SE NY, or in CT away from the coast...you will more than likely regret it. I despise SWFE's...the mid level warm punch is almost always under forecast..the boundary layer temps are such a tease. +1000 The SWFE in late Feb 2008 - had 4" of snow which then changed to rain and washed away. Good times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 oh mio my!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 1993-1994: Dec: 6.9" Jan: 12.0" Feb: 26.4" Mar: 8.1" 19 snow events of 1" or more. Also several big ice storms, a sub 0 reading and brutal cold. 1993-94 no doubt was an awesome winter, and probably the only gradient winter where the PHL-NYC corridor had well above average snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 +1000 The SWFE in late Feb 2008 - had 4" of snow which then changed to rain and washed away. Good times. Well that's actually one that worked out well here. 7 inches of snow that ended with a bit of drizzle. It was the only win of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Jan 16, 1994 had the -30C isotherm just about over NYC at 850mb. It came real close on the 19th as well, according to wunderground Newark only saw a high of 8 that day with a low of -2. Did the -40c line ever come this close to the US other than 1/18/1994? That must've been some really extreme cold in the northern US... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 It came real close on the 19th as well, according to wunderground Newark only saw a high of 8 that day with a low of -2. Did the -40c line ever come this close to the US other than 1/18/1994? That must've been some really extreme cold in the northern US... -40C has come in a few times...Dec 1983 had it and I believe actually Feb 2 1996 in the upper plain for a couple off the top of my head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Well that's actually one that worked out well here. 7 inches of snow that ended with a bit of drizzle. It was the only win of the season. Gradient patterns are usually the only patterns which are more favorable for your area/NYC metro than mine. Most of the bigger events I do better than NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 SWFE are usually split here, december 08 had a particularly nice one, had 8" here, city only got 1-3 of slop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 January 1982 was a killer cold month. look it up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 1322622746[/url]' post='1153309']SWFE are usually split here, december 08 had a particularly nice one, had 8" here, city only got 1-3 of slop Your area does decent in swfe events. The more north the better. Even being in Bayside,Queens is better then being at JFK or southern Queens. There was a storm in 2008-2009 where me and Sundog received 4" of snow while a few miles to our west, LGA and NYC received Zero. And that's why NYC recorded 28" while me and Sundog only a few miles east received 32"-33". Your part of CT probably had 38"-40" of snow for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 1994 had the 12th coldest week in NYC recorded weather history...here is a list of NYC's coldest weeks... ave temp...month/day/year... 02.5......12/29/1917-1/4/1918 08.8......2/8-14/1899 10.9......2/3-9/1895 12.2......1/6-12/1968 12.3......1/11-17/1893 12.6......12/28/1880-1/3/1881 12.7......2/12-18/1979 13.5......2/4-10/1934 13.5......1/22-28/1888 13.6......1/9-15/1886 13.6......1/10-16/1912 13.9......1/15-21/1994 14.1......2/1-7/1886 14.6......1/15-21/1935 14.6......1/23-29/1936 ...................... Some recent years... 15.5......1/20-26/1961 15.9......1/12-18/1977 16.1......1/13-19/1957 16.7......2/13-19/1958 17.0......1/18-24/2005 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Does someone have the snowfall totals maps for 07-08? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 SWFE are usually split here, december 08 had a particularly nice one, had 8" here, city only got 1-3 of slop That month had 3 consecutive snowstorms, not so surprisingly all of them mixed with rain at some point. The second one was the best though. 2/22/08 may have been a SWFE as well if I remember correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.