MJO812 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Nice negative nao on the euro ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 30, 2011 Author Share Posted November 30, 2011 Did you get anything on Jan 21, 2011? That was a clipper system. Hmmm, trying to think back, very active period, kind of a blur. Still, the clippers on the 90's were special, they always seemed to over produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 NNE got crushed in both '07-'08 and '08-'09. They did fine last winter too, though the better snowfall anomalies were in SNE. They will probably have the best shot in this upcoming pattern out of anyone. Thanks, Will... my memory is totally shot! The only thing that sticks in my mind very well were some of the epic cold spells the past few winters down in Florida... with my folks being down there, it was something I was really tracking closely.. will never forget the obs coming out of PBI during the middle of the afternoon of 40 degrees and light rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 30, 2011 Author Share Posted November 30, 2011 And you put more faith in the GGEM ensemble means? Quick question... What models ensemble means are the best at verifying? Something tells me its NOT the GGEM! euro have the highest resolution, so my guess would be them, after that, they are probably all pretty similar, save maybe the nogaps. My point was they have been steadfast with the warmer look, and what they are showing makes the most sense with the current MJO and PNA/EPO/NAO trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 30, 2011 Author Share Posted November 30, 2011 Did you get anything on Jan 21, 2011? That was a clipper system. looks like it reveveloped, so not a pure clipper IMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 euro have the highest resolution, so my guess would be them, after that, they are probably all pretty similar, save maybe the nogaps. My point was they have been steadfast with the warmer look, and what they are showing makes the most sense with the current MJO and PNA/EPO/NAO trends. Well then if the ECM ensemble means are the more accurately verifying and they are showing a more colder pattern....then why are you saying the GGEM look more accurate? EPO going negative PNA going positive NAO going negative east based then according to LC at day 11-15 it is west based on the ECM means (not sure cause i do not have access to that) AO also on the decline ...(realize i did not say negative) So the only thing in favor of a warmer pattern would be the MJO.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Did you get anything on Jan 21, 2011? That was a clipper system. widespread 3-5 in the NYC area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 30, 2011 Author Share Posted November 30, 2011 Well then if the ECM ensemble means are the more accurately verifying and they are showing a more colder pattern....then why are you saying the GGEM look more accurate? EPO going negative PNA going positive NAO going negative east based then according to LC at day 11-15 it is west based on the ECM means (not sure cause i do not have access to that) AO also on the decline ...(realize i did not say negative) So the only thing in favor of a warmer pattern would be the MJO.... ECM shows a swfe pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Gradient winters like 2008-2009 and the rest ORH posted are fun. Lots and lots of snow events. The big storms are missing and that's why totals aren't huge but they feature 10-20 events that usually add up to 20"-30". I'll take that in a heartbeat. Gradient winters suck from Philly on south. NYC usually has average winters but with MANY events to get to that average. Not sure what Will considers a bad winter but in NYC, getting 25-30" like in 2008-2009 with over a dozen events is just fine and I actually almost prefer them. The majority of gradient winters produce average winters. The 2 major exceptions are 2007-2008 which sucked and 1993-1994 which was phenomenal. Philly on south is the problem area. As are coastal areas of Southern Jersey and sometimes LI. NYC is not in that boat during gradient winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 looks like it reveveloped, so not a pure clipper IMHO Well most clippers redevelop so its hard to find one that doesn't. 12/31/08 was similar. I guess you are looking for a fast mover that just goes straight off the coast with no amplification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 There are people in here settling/wishing for a gradient pattern? Head, meet wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 1322617064[/url]' post='1153018']There are people in here settling/wishing for a gradient pattern? Head, meet wall. They are fine. I loved 2008-2009. Many snow events and for 3 months. I don't chase KU winters only. 1993-1994 is my 2nd favorite winter behind 1995-1996 because of the amazing amount of snow events, over 20 events. I am not a KU chaser. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 30, 2011 Author Share Posted November 30, 2011 Well most clippers redevelop so its hard to find one that doesn't. 12/31/08 was similar. I guess you are looking for a fast mover that just goes straight off the coast with no amplification. early to mid 90s they just slid right bye and dropped 1-3, 2-4 without redeveloping. one was right after blizzard 93. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 There are people in here settling/wishing for a gradient pattern? Head, meet wall. Alex is drooling over the prospect of having a few 1"-2" events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Gradient winters like 2008-2009 and the rest ORH posted are fun. Lots and lots of snow events. The big storms are missing and that's why totals aren't huge but they feature 10-20 events that usually add up to 20"-30". I'll take that in a heartbeat. Gradient winters suck from Philly on south. NYC usually has average winters but with MANY events to get to that average. Not sure what Will considers a bad winter but in NYC, getting 25-30" like in 2008-2009 with over a dozen events is just fine and I actually almost prefer them. The majority of gradient winters produce average winters. The 2 major exceptions are 2007-2008 which sucked and 1993-1994 which was phenomenal. I said NYC typically doesn't fair too well...I didn't say those winters were disasters, but the numbers do support below avg snowfall in those winters. But if you don't mind a bit below average snow with a lot of events, then those winters are just fine. 2008-2009...27.6" 2007-2008...11.9" 1993-1994...53.4" 1992-1993...24.5" 1975-1976...17.6" 1971-1972...22.9" 1970-1971...15.5" 1956-1957...21.9" Avg...24.4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 1322617219[/url]' post='1153025']Alex is drooling over the prospect of having a few 1"-2" events You weren't born in 1993-1994. Insane winter. 19 events of over 1", ice storms and cold. With a couple 6"-12" events thrown in. Fabulous winter. Imagine tracking a snow event every 3 days!!!! That's what 93-94 featured. This board would be insane if we can relive a winter like that one or 95-96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I said NYC typically doesn't fair too well...I didn't say those winters were disasters, but the numbers do support below avg snowfall in those winters. But if you don't mind a bit below average snow with a lot of events, then those winters are just fine. 2008-2009...27.6" 2007-2008...11.9" 1993-1994...53.4" 1992-1993...24.5" 1975-1976...17.6" 1971-1972...22.9" 1970-1971...15.5" 1956-1957...21.9" Avg...24.4" I'd imagine the averages for the suburbs would be at least 5-10" higher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 1322617249[/url]' post='1153027']I said NYC typically doesn't fair too well...I didn't say those winters were disasters, but the numbers do support below avg snowfall in those winters. But if you don't mind a bit below average snow with a lot of events, then those winters are just fine. 2008-2009...27.6" 2007-2008...11.9" 1993-1994...53.4" 1992-1993...24.5" 1975-1976...17.6" 1971-1972...22.9" 1970-1971...15.5" 1956-1957...21.9" Avg...24.4" But look at number of snow events those years. Many of them. Not just 1 or 2 to get to those totals like DC usually does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 30, 2011 Author Share Posted November 30, 2011 I see what AG3 is saying, being below normal or just around average is great when you have non stop action and flakes every few days, even if it doesnt tip the scales. But right now, that kind of pattern is not on the table. Not yet that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I'd imagine the averages for the suburbs would be at least 5-10" higher Well the suburbs do average 5-10" more snow, so.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 1322617429[/url]' post='1153036']I see what AG3 is saying, being below normal or just around average is great when you have non stop action and flakes every few days, even if it doesnt tip the scales. But right now, that kind of pattern is not on the table. Not yet that is. Exactly. Big difference with getting 25" by receiving 12-20 events spread out over 3-4 months and receiving it by one big storm and a couple other small ones. Gradient winters usually feature a very high amount of actual snow events but not too many 10"+ events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 30, 2011 Author Share Posted November 30, 2011 Well the suburbs do average 5-10" more snow, so.... and by his numbers 20 degrees colder, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 They are fine. I loved 2008-2009. Many snow events and for 3 months. I don't chase KU winters only. 1993-1994 is my 2nd favorite winter behind 1995-1996 because of the amazing amount of snow events, over 20 events. I am not a KU chaser. But are you a skirt chaser? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 The cool words of 2011: -MJO phase -Transient -Gradient Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 But are you a skirt chaser? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 The cool words of 2011: -MJO phase -Transient -Gradient copy sundog's posts some more..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 There are people in here settling/wishing for a gradient pattern? Head, meet wall. The thing I remember most about gradient winters: cold rain and clawing my eyes out as I watch folks 50 miles north get buried in 4-8" events once a week. 2007-08 was the epitome of disaster, and 2008-09 was painful most of the winter. The early March MECS was what saved that winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 30, 2011 Author Share Posted November 30, 2011 The cool words of 2011: -MJO phase -Transient -Gradient add overdue and/or due to that list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 1322617847[/url]' post='1153065']The thing I remember most about gradient winters: cold rain and clawing my eyes out as I watch folks 50 miles north get buried in 4-8" events once a week. 2007-08 was the epitome of disaster, and 2008-09 was painful most of the winter. The early March MECS was what saved that winter. 2008-2009 was good for NYC and LGA area. 27"-34", with NE Queens, western Nassau and SWCT the winners with 31"-35". What was the coastal Jersey total? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Exactly. Big difference with getting 25" by receiving 12-20 events spread out over 3-4 months and receiving it by one big storm and a couple other small ones. Gradient winters usually feature a very high amount of actual snow events but not too many 10"+ events. 1-3" events are ok but don't really do much for me. I wouldn't mind several 3-6" events getting to 25", but 12-20 events for 25" means barely anything per storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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