Alpha5 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Its a bad pattern for NYC too. I don't even really like it here further to the north. Gradient patterns are generally bad for NYC metro...occasionally they work out but more often than not they don't. Ehh...I think it really depends on climo. A gradient pattern in early/late winter can get dicey here, but in the heart of winter, we are often on the right side of SWFE's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 30, 2011 Author Share Posted November 30, 2011 Cold rain's the worst. Drops are brutal going down the back. you walk around with no shirt on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 30, 2011 Author Share Posted November 30, 2011 Yes we are definitely looking at a bad pattern unfolding Perhaps maybe if you are looking at something other then guidance... The ensembles of the ECMWF have a well-defined positive height anomaly at 500MB just north of Newfoundland in the 11 - 15 day range. I suspect that is a west-based signal. From via LC Borrowing an image from Tombo Yes it is east based...but it is a negative NAO and that is something that we have not really seen happening nor occurring and the pattern above would not result in a warmer then normal december but more along the seasonal to below seasonal levels... These winter is delayed and pattern changing delayed etc is NOT based on guidance at all.. What happened to this forum? Spoiled from October snow? Most places are above normal snowfall now.. In a CRAPPY pattern we had a historical east coast snowstorm (0ct 29th) Pre Thanksgiving Northern New England had a snow storm... The SOUTH has had snow in this crappy pattern... Crappy pattern has still produced....that is pretty good IMO and when the pattern does change the snow chances will be there as well... those are pretty crap ridge positions in the atlantic and pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Its a bad pattern for NYC too. I don't even really like it here further to the north. Gradient patterns are generally bad for NYC metro...occasionally they work out but more often than not they don't. yea... usually end up getting a slug of warm air at the mid-levels into the area... I'm not much of a fan of sleet. I'd prefer strong shortwave/clipper type systems... at least those are pretty much all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 30, 2011 Author Share Posted November 30, 2011 yea... usually end up getting a slug of warm air at the mid-levels into the area... I'm not much of a fan of sleet. I'd prefer strong shortwave/clipper type systems... at least those are pretty much all snow clippers no longer exist, they are a myth, similar to the sasquatch, or yeti as some people call it. I agree, SWFE are pretty much junk around here except the rare occassion they over perform for NYC Otherwise, its 5 mins of snow, an hour of sleet, then an inch of rain followed by clear skies, 60 degrees, and then a cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Ehh...I think it really depends on climo. A gradient pattern in early/late winter can get dicey here, but in the heart of winter, we are often on the right side of SWFE's you really need a really deep layered cold airmass that doesn't retreat with the SWFE's... I hate them... even when they mostly produce snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 clippers no longer exist, they are a myth, similar to the sasquatch, or yeti as some people call it. I agree, SWFE are pretty much junk around here except the rare occassion they over perform for NYC Otherwise, its 5 mins of snow, an hour of sleet, then an inch of rain followed by clear skies, 60 degrees, and then a cold front. clippers don't exist anymore??? boy.. I must be really old-school now-a-days.. bummer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 February 1994 is the only gradient pattern I ever saw work for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 30, 2011 Author Share Posted November 30, 2011 clippers don't exist anymore??? boy.. I must be really old-school now-a-days.. bummer! i dont remember the last real clipper to come through here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I just need cold and snow way up north in Lake Placid for December. Gradient patterns are much better up there. Screw you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Ehh...I think it really depends on climo. A gradient pattern in early/late winter can get dicey here, but in the heart of winter, we are often on the right side of SWFE's Past gradient winters: 2008-2009 2007-2008 1993-1994 1992-1993 1975-1976 1971-1972 1970-1971 1956-1957 I don't think NYC faired well in most of those. Obviously '93-'94 was one of the exceptions. Brutally cold winter which helped the gradient further south than we normally see in overrunning patterns. Doesn't mean this upcoming pattern cannot produce, but I really don't like it all that much. I think we'll be playing against a stacked deck so to speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 30, 2011 Author Share Posted November 30, 2011 February 1994 is the only gradient pattern I ever saw work for NYC. once in a lifetime gradient pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 i dont remember the last real clipper to come through here. in that case... I'd rather get a 10 minute white out, intense snow squall via a mega arctic front than 1-3 inches of front end thump from a winter warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 30, 2011 Author Share Posted November 30, 2011 Remember, when these vorts come out of the SW, there isn't a block and 50/50 to keep those big blue H's in place, so you inevitably get a return flow and a changeover. Further north, the cold air is deeper, so they do better, but as will points out, even up there its not guaranteed. Mt. Zucker on North is the place to be right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Remember, when these vorts come out of the SW, there isn't a block and 50/50 to keep those big blue H's in place, so you inevitably get a return flow and a changeover. Further north, the cold air is deeper, so they do better, but as will points out, even up there its not guaranteed. Mt. Zucker on North is the place to be right now. Northern New England is overdue for a good winter.. let's face it... the mid-atlantic and SNE have been really cashing in these past couple of years... not that I'm saying I don't want a good winter... but.. just sayin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 you walk around with no shirt on? Yeah, I generally interchange between no shirt and no pants. Get some strange looks particularly in the winter but you learn to get used to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Yeah, I generally interchange between no shirt and no pants. Get some strange looks particularly in the winter but you learn to get used to it. When you have no pants on, do you tell people that its just your barometer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 30, 2011 Author Share Posted November 30, 2011 Northern New England is overdue for a good winter.. let's face it... the mid-atlantic and SNE have been really cashing in these past couple of years... not that I'm saying I don't want a good winter... but.. just sayin' well, i dont go by the overdue logic, but right now, that is as classic sucko swfe pattern as you can get. Till it really switches, go north my friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I just need cold and snow way up north in Lake Placid for December. Gradient patterns are much better up there. Screw you guys. well, i dont go by the overdue logic, but right now, that is as classic sucko swfe pattern as you can get. Till it really switches, go north my friend. hi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 i dont remember the last real clipper to come through here. January 2004, and that was aided by great liquid ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 30, 2011 Author Share Posted November 30, 2011 hi enjoy, I'll be hitting the links. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 30, 2011 Author Share Posted November 30, 2011 January 2004, and that was aided by great liquid ratios. great little clipper, there must have been one since, no? wasnt there one in 2009 that JB promised would have 100-1 ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 well, i dont go by the overdue logic, but right now, that is as classic sucko swfe pattern as you can get. Till it really switches, go north my friend. yep.. I totally agree with you on the overdue logic.. I don't actually believe that there is any logic in things eventually balancing out and spreading the wealth.... it was more from a climatological standpoint that they have been rather screwed lately, but not necessarily meaning that they would cash in anytime soon, just because there has been a void there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Past gradient winters: 2008-2009 2007-2008 1993-1994 1992-1993 1975-1976 1971-1972 1970-1971 1956-1957 I don't think NYC faired well in most of those. Obviously '93-'94 was one of the exceptions. Brutally cold winter which helped the gradient further south than we normally see in overrunning patterns. Doesn't mean this upcoming pattern cannot produce, but I really don't like it all that much. I think we'll be playing against a stacked deck so to speak. Those years for CNJ snowfall 2008-2009 - ok 2007-2008 - terrible 1993-1994 - great 1992-1993 - ok 1975-1976 - ok 1971-1972 - slightly below normal 1970-1971 - slightly below normal 1956-1957 - slightly below normal 2007-08 was the only craptastic one on the list...the rest were generally in the 20-32" range with 93-94 the only great one. So generally not good winters but not horrible winters either. NYC/N-C NJ usually borderline in gradient patterns, but erring on the worse side; PHL south sucking, and BOS rocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 30, 2011 Author Share Posted November 30, 2011 its troublesome the ggem ensembles have not waivered with a warm look in the long range. I would say they have been far less aggressive with any potential pattern change and that looks right given what we are seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 great little clipper, there must have been one since, no? wasnt there one in 2009 that JB promised would have 100-1 ratios? From 1991-1994 here were a ton of clippers and then it just seemed to stop. I'm not sure if the cooler phase of the PDO cycle is maybe associated with fewer clippers but its possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 30, 2011 Author Share Posted November 30, 2011 From 1991-1994 here were a ton of clippers and then it just seemed to stop. I'm not sure if the cooler phase of the PDO cycle is maybe associated with fewer clippers but its possible. Remember when they would cross the lakes, pick up additional moisture, and drop 2-4 with some spots getting 3-6? i had a few snow days from some well timed 4-6am clippers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Northern New England is overdue for a good winter.. let's face it... the mid-atlantic and SNE have been really cashing in these past couple of years... not that I'm saying I don't want a good winter... but.. just sayin' NNE got crushed in both '07-'08 and '08-'09. They did fine last winter too, though the better snowfall anomalies were in SNE. They will probably have the best shot in this upcoming pattern out of anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Remember when they would cross the lakes, pick up additional moisture, and drop 2-4 with some spots getting 3-6? i had a few snow days from some well timed 4-6am clippers. Did you get anything on Jan 21, 2011? That was a clipper system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 its troublesome the ggem ensembles have not waivered with a warm look in the long range. I would say they have been far less aggressive with any potential pattern change and that looks right given what we are seeing. And you put more faith in the GGEM ensemble means? Quick question... What models ensemble means are the best at verifying? Something tells me its NOT the GGEM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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