mattinpa Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 You gotta love it, the GFS now still looks at 310 hours what it looked like at 310 hours 6 days ago, problem is the 180 hour depictions now look diddly poo like the 310 hour predictions did 6 days ago...got all that? Except it's pretty clear that changes are coming - finally. I think that the precip is still too far out to know for sure. Euro tossing it in run one means no more than the GFS at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Take p002 and run as far as you can. Don't come back until January. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRSNE_18z/f168.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 I could not find one GFS Ensemble member that has any semblance of high latitude blocking through 348 hrs. It's a race against time with the MJO strengthening--the Pacific is going to crap out again. So the change to a more favorable pattern may very well be delayed another two weeks. We will see.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 1322608832[/url]' post='1152605']Take p002 and run as far as you can. Don't come back until January. http://www.meteo.psu...NE_18z/f168.gif 18z GFS showing its first fantasy snowstorm day 11. And the 18z gefs agrees. http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12288.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 29, 2011 Author Share Posted November 29, 2011 Only snow birds can save us now. Earthlight I can't find them please dig them out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Interesting that the 12z euro ensemble agrees with the operational in regards to the -nao on days 9-10. Also a +pna as well. Hopefully a start of a trend: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Is it a plausible scenario that the potential pattern change gets delayed as far as mid January? This pattern change keeps getting delayed, first from mid November to early December, then to mid December, and now, after a colder first half of December, with the MJO modeled to collapse just before the favorable phases and the +EPO/-PNA pattern apparently attempting to return by mid December, the outlook for the second half of December doesn't look too promising as well. This is starting to sound like the first half of 06-07 all over again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 29, 2011 Author Share Posted November 29, 2011 Thats east based and probably of little help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Only snow birds can save us now. Earthlight I can't find them please dig them out I am on this bandwagon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Is it a plausible scenario that the potential pattern change gets delayed as far as mid January? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 29, 2011 Author Share Posted November 29, 2011 December can be a good golf month.I'm cool with a January start to winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Thats east based and probably of little help Better then the crap we have now.....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 29, 2011 Author Share Posted November 29, 2011 Better then the crap we have now.....lol its the difference between 65 and rain and 45 and rain Pac will breakdown with mjo. Looks like new years eve should mark the start of winter unless nina keeps strengthening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 1322610215[/url]' post='1152676']Better then the crap we have now.....lol Exactly. Gfs has 8 days of average to below average temps. And that setup can easily produce quick moving coastals and clippers that drop 1"-3" or 2"-4" type of events. People chase the KU setups too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 its the difference between 65 and rain and 45 and rain Pac will breakdown with mjo. Looks like new years eve should mark the start of winter unless nina keeps strengthening It should not strengthen, but I'm thinking the problem more than anything may be the atmospheric lag effect is in full blown mode whereby the atmosphere is acting now like we thought it would act last winter, as a result we may be seeing the results of a moderate-strong Nina even though the La Nina is well on its way to going neutral or possibly even above 0 by the summer in 2012. You really do not want to have to wait much past the New Year though, similar to how few summers really do a 180 from cool to warm after mid-July, few winters do a 180 from warm to cool after mid-January. I cannot recall any winter that underwent a massive shift from warm to cold much after early January and the only summer I can recall doing that was 2001. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Yes I guess by now the best hope is for the second half of the winter to bring something decent... there have been winters where the first half was horrible and the second half improved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 its the difference between 65 and rain and 45 and rain Pac will breakdown with mjo. Looks like new years eve should mark the start of winter unless nina keeps strengthening I prefer a chilly rain. No fight left in u trials Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 I dont want trials as a mod anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Yes we are definitely looking at a bad pattern unfolding Perhaps maybe if you are looking at something other then guidance... The ensembles of the ECMWF have a well-defined positive height anomaly at 500MB just north of Newfoundland in the 11 - 15 day range. I suspect that is a west-based signal. From via LC Borrowing an image from Tombo Yes it is east based...but it is a negative NAO and that is something that we have not really seen happening nor occurring and the pattern above would not result in a warmer then normal december but more along the seasonal to below seasonal levels... These winter is delayed and pattern changing delayed etc is NOT based on guidance at all.. What happened to this forum? Spoiled from October snow? Most places are above normal snowfall now.. In a CRAPPY pattern we had a historical east coast snowstorm (0ct 29th) Pre Thanksgiving Northern New England had a snow storm... The SOUTH has had snow in this crappy pattern... Crappy pattern has still produced....that is pretty good IMO and when the pattern does change the snow chances will be there as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Yes we are definitely looking at a bad pattern unfolding Perhaps maybe if you are looking at something other then guidance... Borrowing an image from Tombo Yes it is east based...but it is a negative NAO and that is something that we have not really seen happening nor occurring and the pattern above would not result in a warmer then normal december but more along the seasonal to below seasonal levels... These winter is delayed and pattern changing delayed etc is NOT based on guidance at all.. What happened to this forum? Spoiled from October snow? Most places are above normal snowfall now.. In a CRAPPY pattern we had a historical east coast snowstorm (0ct 29th) Pre Thanksgiving Northern New England had a snow storm... The SOUTH has had snow in this crappy pattern... Crappy pattern has still produced....that is pretty good IMO and when the pattern does change the snow chances will be there as well... That pattern is pretty cruddy for M.A. snow events. A transient N ATL ridge with still some SE ridging trying to emerge, and the ridge on the WC is further west than we'd normally like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Ryan maue-After block breaks down, all GFS ensembles show wickedly cold air for CONUS out to 10 days. Brutal. policlimate.com/weather/ensemb… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I've been working on a few small experiments with the US/North American pattern throughout the fall using the models, it's not finished yet but I thought I'd share some of what I have so far. One of the things I'm doing is keeping track of the initialized H5, 850mb and surface maps on the NAM/GFS, I know that it's not 100% accurate, but I'm using the initialized maps as an estimation of the pattern. Taking the H5 maps from November 1st, I outlined the 570dm line for each 6 hour interval, and putting these semi-transparent lines together, I got the following result. The darker the shade is, the more frequently the 570dm line was over that specific region. For November, the 570dm line frequently went into the SW US, towards Texas and from there towards NYC and offshore, clearly showing a sustained SE ridge with a few transient cool spells, as can be seen by the lighter shades showing a ridge in the western US. The mid-late October period was much different than this, as there was a stronger east coast trough signal, showing that a warm pattern developed and became locked in place throughout November. As I said, it's not finished yet, hopefully later on into December/January there will be more noticeable results out of this about the pattern for this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 That pattern is pretty cruddy for M.A. snow events. A transient N ATL ridge with still some SE ridging trying to emerge, and the ridge on the WC is further west than we'd normally like it. Forgive me if i am wrong here but New York City for one is not considered the Mid Atlantic it would be considered more the Northern Mid Atlantic and some even consider it part of the Northeast... I am not referencing down in MD... A gradient pattern the Northern Mid Atlantic can do quite well in as it has other years... Let the pattern unfold and let winter arrive and THEN if things look bad (which they honestly do NOT now) then start to worry ..(if that is your style) ...meanwhile what is being shown definitely is NOT what we been seeing since the beginning of November.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 It should not strengthen, but I'm thinking the problem more than anything may be the atmospheric lag effect is in full blown mode whereby the atmosphere is acting now like we thought it would act last winter, as a result we may be seeing the results of a moderate-strong Nina even though the La Nina is well on its way to going neutral or possibly even above 0 by the summer in 2012. You really do not want to have to wait much past the New Year though, similar to how few summers really do a 180 from cool to warm after mid-July, few winters do a 180 from warm to cool after mid-January. I cannot recall any winter that underwent a massive shift from warm to cold much after early January and the only summer I can recall doing that was 2001. 2006-2007 did a full 180 half way through January. That was the pattern change that drove Larry Cosgrove away from Eastern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I've been working on a few small experiments with the US/North American pattern throughout the fall using the models, it's not finished yet but I thought I'd share some of what I have so far. One of the things I'm doing is keeping track of the initialized H5, 850mb and surface maps on the NAM/GFS, I know that it's not 100% accurate, but I'm using the initialized maps as an estimation of the pattern. Taking the H5 maps from November 1st, I outlined the 570dm line for each 6 hour interval, and putting these semi-transparent lines together, I got the following result. The darker the shade is, the more frequently the 570dm line was over that specific region. For November, the 570dm line frequently went into the SW US, towards Texas and from there towards NYC and offshore, clearly showing a sustained SE ridge with a few transient cool spells, as can be seen by the lighter shades showing a ridge in the western US. The mid-late October period was much different than this, as there was a stronger east coast trough signal, showing that a warm pattern developed and became locked in place throughout November. As I said, it's not finished yet, hopefully later on into December/January there will be more noticeable results out of this about the pattern for this winter. Cool stuff NYCSuburbs nice work. Very interested in the progression of this through winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 November will end up as a top ten warmest November...2011 is now the 10th wettest fall on record...If November ends up averaqging 52.2 it wouldtie for the tenth warmest fall on record... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I prefer a chilly rain. No fight left in u trials Cold rain's the worst. Drops are brutal going down the back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 we're warmer than pretty much the entire northern half of the state of Florida right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 we're warmer than pretty much the entire northern half of the state of Florida right now Thats what a massive cut off ULL in the middle of the country can do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Forgive me if i am wrong here but New York City for one is not considered the Mid Atlantic it would be considered more the Northern Mid Atlantic and some even consider it part of the Northeast... I am not referencing down in MD... A gradient pattern the Northern Mid Atlantic can do quite well in as it has other years... Let the pattern unfold and let winter arrive and THEN if things look bad (which they honestly do NOT now) then start to worry ..(if that is your style) ...meanwhile what is being shown definitely is NOT what we been seeing since the beginning of November.... Its a bad pattern for NYC too. I don't even really like it here further to the north. Gradient patterns are generally bad for NYC metro...occasionally they work out but more often than not they don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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