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NYC Banter and BS Thread Part IV


TheTrials

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Here is a blurb from Upton's afternoon AFD:

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT. WITH DOWNSLOPING NORTHWEST WINDS AND LITTLE MOISTURE...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED...JUST SOME MID LEVEL STRATO CU WITH THE FRONT. A BRIEF SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES SLIPPING A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH RIDGING ALOFT. TEMPERATURES RISE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH CIRRUS SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE. NEXT POTENTIAL ISSUE WILL BE THE MON-WED TIME FRAME WITH GFS/ECMWF BOTH HINTING AT A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE MIDWEST AND A SFC LOW DEVELOPING NEAR PA. BOTH SHOW PRECIPITATION IN THIS TIME FRAME ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA BUT KEPT POPS AT CHANCE BECAUSE TIMING COULD CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ECMWF THEN SHOWS THE UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER NORTHERN NY AND A SURFACE LOW DEEPENING OFF THE SOUTHERLY MAINE COAST WITH THE GFS DEVELOPING THIS LOW MUCH FARTHER NORTH. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...WINDS WILL PICK UP TUESDAY EVENING AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. TOO UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT TO PUT MORE THAN A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS SYSTEM.

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Here is a blurb from Upton's afternoon AFD:

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT. WITH DOWNSLOPING NORTHWEST WINDS AND LITTLE MOISTURE...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED...JUST SOME MID LEVEL STRATO CU WITH THE FRONT. A BRIEF SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES SLIPPING A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH RIDGING ALOFT. TEMPERATURES RISE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH CIRRUS SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE. NEXT POTENTIAL ISSUE WILL BE THE MON-WED TIME FRAME WITH GFS/ECMWF BOTH HINTING AT A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE MIDWEST AND A SFC LOW DEVELOPING NEAR PA. BOTH SHOW PRECIPITATION IN THIS TIME FRAME ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA BUT KEPT POPS AT CHANCE BECAUSE TIMING COULD CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ECMWF THEN SHOWS THE UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER NORTHERN NY AND A SURFACE LOW DEEPENING OFF THE SOUTHERLY MAINE COAST WITH THE GFS DEVELOPING THIS LOW MUCH FARTHER NORTH. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...WINDS WILL PICK UP TUESDAY EVENING AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. TOO UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT TO PUT MORE THAN A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS SYSTEM.

great. whenever Upton predicts snow they bust...we need them to say, little to no chance of snow at all, and mainly inland...then the coast will get walloped...

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those nao maps are junk. Sure, heights are heigher in the NAO region, but that is not a good west based NAO and is probably just an expansion of the atlantic ridge which has been out there for months.

you're a spoiled weenie. Always want the KU pattern or bust.

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you're a spoiled weenie. Always want the KU pattern or bust.

no, but unless you like two minutes of snow followed by a lot of rain, you need a block or everything is cutting or will at least be a SWFE

we can do just fine if the pac and ao we great, which they arent

I have been arguing this point for weeks.

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That event at 180 or so has been popping up left and right on models, its a major timing type event and if everything went right it would be sort of a repeat of the March flash freeze and blizzard from a few years ago but 9 out of 10 of these types of setups never ultimately happen.

Its junk. Euro totally tossed it today and the gfs at 180 hours is really no different than 384hours

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