Brian5671 Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Just brutal......and the heavy snow warnings for 40 and rain......how I hope we don't see a repeat oh yeah, that infamous bust. Just about every model and met busted there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 I will be in Hawaii for a golf tourney January 5-9...any idea how the weather will be around that time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 29, 2011 Author Share Posted November 29, 2011 oh yeah, that infamous bust. Just about every model and met busted there. euro didn't, it was dead on 10 days out. No one wanted to beleive it we were so hard up, like the loser kid in elementary school who gets a love note from the hotest girl in class, knowing she is messing with him, but falls for it anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 euro didn't, it was dead on 10 days out. No one wanted to beleive it we were so hard up, like the loser kid in elementary school who gets a love note from the hotest girl in class, knowing she is messing with him, but falls for it anyway. doh. she had a great rack though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 29, 2011 Author Share Posted November 29, 2011 doh. she had a great rack though... in elementary school? hmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 in elementary school? hmmmm some girls develop early, or she might have been left back a few times, its foggy at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 some girls develop early, or she might have been left back a few times, its foggy at this point. Back a few times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 29, 2011 Author Share Posted November 29, 2011 no fantasy euro storm on the gfs. Euro is Dr. Yes instead of Dr. No. That is basically the only difference between 2007 and 2011, the Euro produces weenie solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 no fantasy euro storm on the gfs. Euro is Dr. Yes instead of Dr. No. That is basically the only difference between 2007 and 2011, the Euro produces weenie solutions. There were some improvements on the GFS towards the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 29, 2011 Author Share Posted November 29, 2011 There were some improvements on the GFS towards the Euro. not really, its basically a FROPA with disorganized H5 energy and a nice fat SE ridge ahead of the front. Nothing to suggest the flow will cutoff like the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 no fantasy euro storm on the gfs. Euro is Dr. Yes instead of Dr. No. That is basically the only difference between 2007 and 2011, the Euro produces weenie solutions. wrong. Euro was the only consistent model with the October snowstorm. And i believe it nailed Irene as well. I also believe it was the most consistent last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 wrong. Euro was the only consistent model with the October snowstorm. And i believe it nailed Irene as well. I also believe it was the most consistent last winter. that is, if you mean it produces incorrect weenie solutions... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 12z GFS is cold after the fropa next week. The cold retreats at the very end of the run ( who cares that far out though ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 29, 2011 Author Share Posted November 29, 2011 wrong. Euro was the only consistent model with the October snowstorm. And i believe it nailed Irene as well. I also believe it was the most consistent last winter. what does that have to do with what I am talking about? I am referencing how back in the day, we could never get it to show us a weenie long range solution, not it throws them out at will. I never said anything about its accuracy for those two storms, and in fact, i posted several times how the euro was going to verify for both Irene and the october storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 There were some improvements on the GFS towards the Euro. Yes, maybe not the same solution, but colder than before. It's possible the GFS will bow to the Euro, like we've seen quite a few times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 what does that have to do with what I am talking about? I am referencing how back in the day, we could never get it to show us a weenie long range solution, not it throws them out at will. I never said anything about its accuracy for those two storms, and in fact, i posted several times how the euro was going to verify for both Irene and the october storm. ah ok, i didnt read it as that, my bad...now i see how it can be read that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 29, 2011 Author Share Posted November 29, 2011 In all seriousness, there is not much about the H5 GFS maps that are really that great. You have intense ridging out ahead of the fropa, then the front comes through with a little precip in the cold sector, and then really no sign any wave develops behind the front as the H5 energy lifts to the north, it doesn't dig and enhace the trough and thus produce a surface reflection. The euro closed off H5 and produced a cutoff that spun off the coast for three days. Totally different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 29, 2011 Author Share Posted November 29, 2011 ah ok, i didnt read it as that, my bad...now i see how it can be read that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 yea im just bored as hell writing this opposition motion in employment discrimination case...yawn...give me something to track please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 In all seriousness, there is not much about the H5 GFS maps that are really that great. You have intense ridging out ahead of the fropa, then the front comes through with a little precip in the cold sector, and then really no sign any wave develops behind the front as the H5 energy lifts to the north, it doesn't dig and enhace the trough and thus produce a surface reflection. The euro closed off H5 and produced a cutoff that spun off the coast for three days. Totally different. I didn't say it looked like the Euro. I said it's making baby steps toward the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 http://www.csun.edu/~hcgeg004/MJO%20lecture.htm Cool little synopsis on the MJO...breaks it down well for the layman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Maybe some members are picking up on the coastal storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 When's the last time NYC did not drop to 35 or below in November? The lowest temp this month has been 36 on 11/5 and 11/18. The answer to your question is 1998. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 29, 2011 Author Share Posted November 29, 2011 Maybe some members are picking up on the coastal storm? nope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Which oddly wasn't an overly warm month. It was only about .5 above normal. The answer to your question is 1998. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Matt Noyes http://www.mattnoyes...-next-week.html Larry Cosgrove on facebook Time for a reality check. I have had my fill of the premature "winter is over" calls. If you check the computer models (ALL of them), you notice three prominent ridge signatures through December 15. -EPO, -NAO and Cuban subtropical high. Teleconnections on said ridges produce what is essentially a full-latitude trough with Arctic air drainage into the Great Plains, Midwest and Northeast. With an active storm track from NM and TX into either S QC or (in the longer term) VA or NC.Sounds wintry to me.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Matt Noyes http://www.mattnoyes...-next-week.html Larry Cosgrove on facebook I really don't see any -NAO that Larry is talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 ^ I see some heights building into the Davis straights that are in response to the flow around the PV near Hudson bay, but it's nothing with staying power(Maybe 3 days) . Other than that, not seeing any signs of an -NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 29, 2011 Author Share Posted November 29, 2011 euro could be trying to throw the weenies a bone again. Stand by Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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