MJO812 Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Even with a PNA ridge out west, the lack of a 50/50 low to force any storm south is the major issue here. We need the Atlantic to cooperate pure and simple Yes it is but the PNA ridge and the -EPO can do the trick if the timing is right, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 In reality yes but certainly going into December there was alot of promise for a cold and potentially stormy month. And wasn't there a surprise snow earlier in the month in Queens/LI? Last year was a dud until Dec 26. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 In reality yes but certainly going into December there was alot of promise for a cold and potentially stormy month. And wasn't there a surprise snow earlier in the month in Queens/LI? I'm not sure about that. I didn't receive any snowfall until the boxing day storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 You know me..I hardly jump ship,but this pattern has been horrible.I thought by now we would start to see some changes looking out 2 weeks or so,but same old same old looking at the latest model runs..I'd say in 10 days if we see nothing encouraging I will be very worried about at least the first part of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 It was very isolated. I remember my boss flying in to JFK saying everything was covered. I think a few isolated spots picked up 3 or 4". Most of the city and N&W got nothing...most of LI I don't think got much either...does anyone else remember this? :-) I'm not sure about that. I didn't receive any snowfall until the boxing day storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Laughable differences on GFS after truncation. Hour 192, then 204 after truncation: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 28, 2011 Author Share Posted November 28, 2011 Laughable differences on GFS after truncation. Hour 192, then 204 after truncation: Progressive fast nina flow with no blocking. That storm has ZERO chance of being anything but far right, after the three inches of rain it gives us with the cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 nice nina cutter on the gfs. LOL at the 6z gfs and people who bought into that pipe dream. Congrats chicago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Last year was a dud until Dec 26. We developed great NAO blocking well before that in the 1st week of December and then it reloaded to even better orientation after the Dec 13 lakes cutter. So there was a reason to think we'd eventually cash in. That is something that is showing no signs of happening this December. Doesn't mean there can't be a great snow event at some point this month, but it gives a lot more reason to be a bit pessimistic going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 lol at the differences. It looks like the ensemble mean has a high precip field just off the coast. This could mean that some nsembles are showing a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 We developed great NAO blocking well before that in the 1st week of December and then it reloaded to even better orientation after the Dec 13 lakes cutter. So there was a reason to think we'd eventually cash in. That is something that is showing no signs of happening this December. Doesn't mean there can't be a great snow event at some point this month, but it gives a lot more reason to be a bit pessimistic going forward. Yeah it was def a chilly month overall.....threats to track.......basically from the 15th on. Nothing encouraging like that happening this december Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 the warmth is nice. there's no sign of blocking or sustained cold on any model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 28, 2011 Author Share Posted November 28, 2011 Ensembles show nothing for the H5 setup people are drooling over. The map anthony is posting is precip that has fallen, its the front that went through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 We developed great NAO blocking well before that in the 1st week of December and then it reloaded to even better orientation after the Dec 13 lakes cutter. So there was a reason to think we'd eventually cash in. That is something that is showing no signs of happening this December. Doesn't mean there can't be a great snow event at some point this month, but it gives a lot more reason to be a bit pessimistic going forward. Well said Will, it was the factors in place so early in the game last year that lead to the blockbuster storm Dec 26th. Besides popping a PNA ridge in the extended, there Is nothing on the data that is encouraging for a large scale pattern change. Even if things fall into place by mid month there is still a lag time to see good results. That would take us to the end of Dec/Early Jan. Even with that said, there are still no guarantees.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 We developed great NAO blocking well before that in the 1st week of December and then it reloaded to even better orientation after the Dec 13 lakes cutter. So there was a reason to think we'd eventually cash in. That is something that is showing no signs of happening this December. Doesn't mean there can't be a great snow event at some point this month, but it gives a lot more reason to be a bit pessimistic going forward. we are toast. the ao/nao wants to stay positive. notice how once the huge AK vortex moved, there's a huge vortex over greenland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 the warmth is nice. there's no sign of blocking or sustained cold on any model run. Yeah its hard to go with any type of sustained cold (beyond 4-6 days at a time) until we see a solid signal for blocking. Even if its the EPO and not the NAO. The NAO looks hopeless for the next couple weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 we are toast. the ao/nao wants to stay positive. notice how once the huge AK vortex moved, there's a huge vortex over greenland If you were forecasting in 1994. you would have busted for the entire winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 It was similar to Dec. 2000. A cold month overall that was saved at the last minute with a huge storm (for some) but a miss for others. So the question is do you want a good pattern that doesn't produce or a bad one where we at least get some storms and have to hope for enough cold air to get some snow out of it. I think it's more frustrating when we have our hopes up because we're in a great pattern, only to see them crushed when there are no storms. In a bad pattern we have no expectations so any snow is a bonus. Yeah it was def a chilly month overall.....threats to track.......basically from the 15th on. Nothing encouraging like that happening this december Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 12z GEFS still looks good in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 If you were forecasting in 1994. you would have busted for the entire winter. I don't see all the negativity. The 12z GFS has no real warmth at all after this current spell - I wouldn't rule out early Dec for snow, but mid-Dec may be more realistic. This is even without the -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 If you were forecasting in 1994. you would have busted for the entire winter. 1994 had a massive block just N of AK that pressed the PV to over Hudson Bay...so it was still a very cold pattern despite a +NAO. December 1983 did a similar trick but displaced a little west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 I don't see all the negativity. The 12z GFS has no real warmth at all after this current spell - I wouldn't rule out early Dec for snow, but mid-Dec may be more realistic. This is even without the -NAO. People depend a lot on the -NAO and - AO. The 12 gfs ensembles look great in the long range. No sign of warm weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 1994 had a massive block just N of AK that pressed the PV to over Hudson Bay...so it was still a very cold pattern despite a +NAO. December 1983 did a similar trick but displaced a little west. we usually do well as long as there's a high latitude block somewhere on our side of the hemisphere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 What a disaster this would be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 People depend a lot on the -NAO and - AO. The 12 gfs ensembles look great in the long range. No sign of warm weather. That's the problem-it's always in the LONG range-it never moves up...that's how you know you are fooked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 we usually do well as long as there's a high latitude block somewhere on our side of the hemisphere Yeah the EPO makes it cold even without a -NAO....which is what will drive our cold shot after Dec 5-6 or so. The EPO goes negative and spills cold air into the northern half of the CONUS, but it doesn't look like the -EPO will develop into a longer term block which is why the cold will likely be fairly transient. If we somehow can keep the PNA positive and the EPO from going back to solidly +, then we might be able to get a period of longer cold and snow threats, but that is not something I would bet on at the moment...I'd think something like that would have to wait until post Dec 20th or perhaps later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 That's the problem-it's always in the LONG range-it never moves up...that's how you know you are fooked. It's been under 10 days now - we either get cold before the precip around hour 180 or it's like a front that goes through. Not a perfect setup yet without the -NAO, but it's still early and I feel we are taking steps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 12z GGEM is interesting at 180 hours. Different than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Yeah the EPO makes it cold even without a -NAO....which is what will drive our cold shot after Dec 5-6 or so. The EPO goes negative and spills cold air into the northern half of the CONUS, but it doesn't look like the -EPO will develop into a longer term block which is why the cold will likely be fairly transient. If we somehow can keep the PNA positive and the EPO from going back to solidly +, then we might be able to get a period of longer cold and snow threats, but that is not something I would bet on at the moment...I'd think something like that would have to wait until post Dec 20th or perhaps later. The west coast ridge retrograding to the GOA is the first bad thing that happens on some of the long range ensemble means. Adding to the problem is the 498dm vortex over the Davis Straight. This pattern could produce a few gradient-type events but it's nothing near what we are looking for as far as a good cold air supply and chances for snowstorms. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSHGTAVGNH_6z/f348.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Be careful. Certain members are taking posts in this thread, the BANTER thread, and taking them seriously! WOW! LOL. :axe: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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