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NYC Banter and BS Thread Part IV


TheTrials

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12z GFS says what -NAO you talking bout WILLIS!? rather volitile pattern after the huge cutoff low..

but it def. cools down and we see cold air get on the eastern side of canada finally.

Gotta watch that close 500 low. Looks like a vort comes down the back side, could pop something.

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?? Haha someone is bitter. Just adding to the convo. Not Sure how me saying the gfs says no -NAO is weenish... But my point was that even though the CPC was showing a somewhat neutral to slightly negative NAO, the gfs says no way. That's about as unbiased of a breakdown as I can give.

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The only cool day of the next 7 looks to be Thanksgiving and even that is just near normal. We'll finish the month +3 at least.

I'm willing to go with lower 60s in NYC and 63-65 degrees near Newark next weekend... strong ridge, 850mb temps above 10c, and SW winds all support well above average temps. Even the cold biased GFS has upper 50s, and the DGEX FWIW already has widespread lower 60s.

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The only cool day of the next 7 looks to be Thanksgiving and even that is just near normal. We'll finish the month +3 at least.

This should be the third 4-5 day torch event of the month so far, after the two 70-degree warm spells earlier this month. At this rate, we're easily going to finish the month well above normal.

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euro do not look good

ggem and gfs do.

They definitely aren't as good as the GFS/CMC are... At hour 168, they are somewhat better, but get worse again by hour 240. There's only a transient ridge near eastern Canada moving out, with a west trough and rising heights in the east. At least it's somewhat better than what we have now.

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As i said 2 weeks ago, when everyone was predicting post turkey day cool down, this will be a warm winter, with maybe a few mediocre storms. Now we are looking at late december cool down...we had an exciting weather year, one of the best ever. Maybe its time to realize that the weather has been so "good" past decade because we werent used to so much snow in the past. Absence makes the heart grow fonder. A few bad years and then one great year, thats my prediction.

A poor 2011-2012 and 2012-2013, but a great 2013-2014...arrowheadsmiley.png

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70" of snow per winter or bust.

:axe:

I have not seen anyone call for 70 inches of snow....

Furthermore I for one would not be expecting to see any snow in the month of November...

Quite frankly i would not be expecting to see any snow until mid to latter December...

Anything that manages to fall before that time frame counts as bonus...

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where can i find monthly temps up this point against the avg? looking all around noaa but no good so far.

My station is running about 3 degrees above normal this month based on my 35 years of record. With the generally mild pattern for the rest of the month this will probobly wind up as one of the warmest novembers on record for me.

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I have not seen anyone call for 70 inches of snow....

Furthermore I for one would not be expecting to see any snow in the month of November...

Quite frankly i would not be expecting to see any snow until mid to latter December...

Anything that manages to fall before that time frame counts as bonus...

Lol it was a joke, playing on the fact that people may expect last winter again.

My call a few weeks back was for Dec 15 to be the date when things start to flip.

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