NYCSuburbs Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Go with the ensembles. They have been showing cold for severa l days now. Have not change their tune. The 18z GEFS just got colder FWIW, showing even more widespread below average departures for days 11-15. Most likely not sustained cold, but definitely colder than where we are now. I'm not sure that it gets that cold, but the GEFS do signal somewhat colder temperatures for early December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 28, 2011 Author Share Posted November 28, 2011 that is b/c he was humping the 12z GFS.....he wont be humping the 18z nothing wrong with the 18z gefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 28, 2011 Author Share Posted November 28, 2011 Forget the GFS the ECMWF is king when it comes to middle range forecasting. they both have strengths and weakneses, you just can't throw out the gfs, it has come a long way and has its moments ahead of the euro with verification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Forget the GFS the ECMWF is king when it comes to middle range forecasting. This is a bad pattern for the Euro though because when you have that ridge that is just far enough west for disturbances to dig into the SW U.S. it starts its usual bias for cutting them off down there too long...if the ridge centers more over the western U.S. then the Euro is in better position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 and that makes them right? LOL. Most models have had cold of some sorts coming in 2nd half of November.....verification: Historic warmth I remember the GFS was showing an Arctic outbreak for the upper Midwest around Halloween for mid-November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Well then it's official, you really have no clue what you're looking at. Um yea I do, oh sorry the 18z and 12z runs, there happy? A lot of crabby people when it's this warm in late November I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 1322442121[/url]' post='1146904']Um yea I do, oh sorry the 18z and 12z runs, there happy? A lot of crabby people when it's this warm in late November I see. Both the 12z and 18z gfs were cold days 9-15. Relax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 that is b/c he was humping the 12z GFS.....he wont be humping the 18z Wrong! He was talking about the ECM Wxrisk.com "*** ALERT *** ALERT *** DEFLECTORS HAVE SNAPPED ON CAP'N.... Day 9-10 European Model shows FIRST true Arctic Blast of the season Pouring south across US Canada Border over ND SD MN WI MI ...as West Ridge in the Jet Stream becomes STRONGER...Winters coming!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Both the 12z and 18z gfs were cold days 9-15. Relax. There's so many back and forth signals from everyone, I wish everyone had the same general idea and stuck with it instead of flipping back and forth. Some say winter's basically over before it starts, others say it will be a good winter, others don't know, all I hear is potential pattern change, possible pattern change, maybe a pattern change. I know meteorology isn't easy but it's amazing how far apart we are even in 2011, especially when it comes to a winter forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 28, 2011 Author Share Posted November 28, 2011 Surprised no one noticed the end of the op 18z gfs showing higher heights building towards greenland and a few of the ensembles show it too. That would be nice! A fantasy at this range of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 28, 2011 Author Share Posted November 28, 2011 still basically a western atlantic ridge but clearly trying to back west. A split flow with a -NAO is fine and dandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 The last few panels of the GFS are useless for forecasting. It is only slightly better the guessing. The ECMWF is a lot bettr, but after 192hrs the quality goes down, the GFS if it goes against the ECMWF at least 80% correct when is goes against the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 1322443083[/url]' post='1146936']There's so many back and forth signals from everyone, I wish everyone had the same general idea and stuck with it instead of flipping back and forth. Some say winter's basically over before it starts, others say it will be a good winter, others don't know, all I hear is potential pattern change, possible pattern change, maybe a pattern change. I know meteorology isn't easy but it's amazing how far apart we are even in 2011, especially when it comes to a winter forecast. Let's face it. Unless you have a crystal ball, you will never know what January will bring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 28, 2011 Author Share Posted November 28, 2011 The last few panels of the GFS are useless for forecasting. It is only slightly better the guessing. The ECMWF is a lot bettr, but after 192hrs the quality goes down bug time, the GFS if it goes against the ECMWF at least 80% correct when is goes against the GFS. no one thinks the gfs has any real skill at that range but since there is very little to talk about nothing wrong with giving the weenies some hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 I can't wait for snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Tuesday Night: Periods of rain and possibly a thunderstorm. Low around 48. East wind around 16 mph becoming south. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Upton's forecast for NYC on Tuesday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 I can't wait for snow At least we saw snow in October, seems like ages ago because its been so warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 28, 2011 Author Share Posted November 28, 2011 Upton's forecast for NYC on Tuesday night Earthlight will be staying up for the spc wrf to track the one cell that will pass over his house and will report 60mph winds that no one can verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 my temp was down to 48 about a half hour ago and now it's spiking upward quickly... 5 degrees within about the past 30 minutes... almost like a mini warm front came through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 we need a -NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 we need a -NAO I don't need it....I don't need it...I definitely don't need it... (spongebob referrence) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 By the way, some really cold stuff for the south/south central part of the US, even some snow in the forecast while we bake in the mid 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Um yea I do, oh sorry the 18z and 12z runs, there happy? A lot of crabby people when it's this warm in late November I see. Ok, back your post up! Post the "warm" map from the 18Z or 12Z GFS. I have been looking in the long range and haven't found a single warm panel- not ONE! I'm sure you can prove me wrong if you're so sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 I don't need it....I don't need it...I definitely don't need it... (spongebob referrence) i liked that one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 I don't need it....I don't need it...I definitely don't need it... (spongebob referrence) Tom do you still think the blocking and neg nao come back this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Tom do you still think the blocking and neg nao cone back this winter? winter didnt even start yet lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 winter didnt even start yet lol Even with a improving pacific, the atlantic blows.....outside a clipper, everything will cut west the next 3 weeks..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Even with a improving pacific, the atlantic blows.....outside a clipper, everything will cut west the next 3 weeks..... sounds like fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 sounds like fun Can't wait for the gfs to show a snowstorm at day 4 and have the euro have it over buffalo. Then the weenies will try explain why the euro is wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Even with a improving pacific, the atlantic blows.....outside a clipper, everything will cut west the next 3 weeks..... just in time for a blizzard on dec 28-30 via Chris L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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