TheTrials Posted November 27, 2011 Author Share Posted November 27, 2011 12z gfs much improved with PNA ridge position and interaction with the SW cutoff. Lets hope it holds. Two strong chances for something before 12/15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 was anyone else surprised how cold it was last night? NWS was showing a low near 50 and JFK went down to 37. I was. I went outside with no jacket on in the afternoon. I was freezing when I came home from my girlfriend's house at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 27, 2011 Author Share Posted November 27, 2011 12z ensembles are honking for 12/6, probably a swfe snow to rain setup but its something to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 I mentioned it earlier in this thread. It got much colder than forecasted. I noticed it late last night when I went to the window. We actually had a sea-breeze in the afternoon, and then it looked like some radational cooling down to the dews, which were in the upper 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 dec 1-4: Showers, warm; Dec 5-9: Rain and snow, then sunny, cool; Dec 10-12: Sunny, warm; Dec 13-16: Rain and snow, then sunny, cold; Dec 17-20: Snowstorm, then sunny, cold; Dec 21-27: Rain, then sunny, seasonable; Dec 28-31: Rain and snow showers. farmers almanac but.....it seems fairly accurate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 27, 2011 Author Share Posted November 27, 2011 euro gets us seasonably cold by the end of the run with a weak wave in the flow approaching as some cold air gets into the country at the end of the run. Ridge out west into alaska is holding with absolutely no help in the atlantic or the AO. At least the torch's appear to be over for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Right now in this pattern with a +NAO the cold doesn't look to last very long. We still could get some snow or frozen precipitation but any big snows will probably not change until the pattern chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 The 12z ECM goes crazy at hour 240 We're still missing any -NAO/-AO to keep the cold air in place, and it'd probably be transient cold followed by more warming. It also has a SE ridge at hour 192, December 5th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 27, 2011 Author Share Posted November 27, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 The 12z ECM goes crazy at hour 240 We're still missing any -NAO/-AO to keep the cold air in place, and it'd probably be transient cold followed by more warming. It also has a SE ridge at hour 192, December 5th. I would not say it goes crazy I would say it looks similar to last nights means.... The ensemble means of both the ECM and GFS are quite consistent with changing the pattern to a much colder regime.. Also i would not be surprised that the ECM bias is at play at the 12 Z run today in holding energy back in the SW and that sometime between the 6th and 10th we have a major winter storm along the east.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 I would not say it goes crazy I would say it looks similar to last nights means.... The ensemble means of both the ECM and GFS are quite consistent with changing the pattern to a much colder regime.. Also i would not be surprised that the ECM bias is at play at the 12 Z run today in holding energy back in the SW and that sometime between the 6th and 10th we have a major winter storm along the east.. I don't think it's crazy with the idea of a trough covering the eastern/central US, it's likely that we do see a colder pattern for the start of December, although it most likely is crazy with the idea of nearly -30c 850mb temps in southern Canada pouring SE towards the Great Lakes. I also wouldn't be surprised if we end up with at least one snowstorm between the December 6-12 time frame, but with a lack of blocking and a positive NAO/AO, unless the timing and location of any storm end up favorable, which as we saw in October is not impossible, I would favor the interior parts of the region over the coast for any significant snow potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 I would not say it goes crazy I would say it looks similar to last nights means.... The ensemble means of both the ECM and GFS are quite consistent with changing the pattern to a much colder regime.. Also i would not be surprised that the ECM bias is at play at the 12 Z run today in holding energy back in the SW and that sometime between the 6th and 10th we have a major winter storm along the east.. Not sure about major, at least for I-95, but I do believe the pattern Dec 5th-10th supports the potential for a mdt or sig snowfall. If we can get any type of snowfall, even a few inches in that period, it's a success IMO. December's average is 4-5" of snow, so a few inches in a supposedly horrible pattern aint too shabby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 27, 2011 Author Share Posted November 27, 2011 Anyone want to take bets that Noreaster17 is A-L-E-X? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Anyone want to take bets that Noreaster17 is A-L-E-X? I don't think so; his posting style seems quite a bit different. All I know is there are way too many people with the name "noreaster." I always get them confused...the weenie one, the pessimistic one, and now the one who posts stats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 27, 2011 Author Share Posted November 27, 2011 I don't think so; his posting style seems quite a bit different. All I know is there are way too many people with the name "noreaster." I always get them confused...the weenie one, the pessimistic one, and now the one who posts stats. Read them again, they aren't that different, and this broad coastal ct location plus scientific posting with charts and stats is suspicious. Usually the noreaster screen name leads to trouble around here so let's see where it goes. Plus, bluewave and uncle are the only ones who should be putting up charts about climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 The GFS has a bias with overplaying the polar jet. I like the 12z Euro solution to about 168hrs. With the trough hanging back SW. Then I think it's a little too aggressive with the cold shot coming into Northeast after that, against the building SE ridge. Note also the models keep delaying this significant cold shot. First it looked like around Thanksgiving. Then Dec. 1. Now Dec.5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Not sure about major, at least for I-95, but I do believe the pattern Dec 5th-10th supports the potential for a mdt or sig snowfall. If we can get any type of snowfall, even a few inches in that period, it's a success IMO. December's average is 4-5" of snow, so a few inches in a supposedly horrible pattern aint too shabby. It almost seems funny how the last few winters have spoiled NYC snow lovers. Anything that's under about 6 inches seems like a light snowstorm, when even a single 6 inch snowstorm would exceed the average December average. Something like December 08. which had a slightly positive NAO/negative PNA, would end up as a snowier than average December with the 3 consecutive moderate snowstorms in the otherwise not so favorable pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 He is not Alex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Read them again, they aren't that different, and this broad coastal ct location plus scientific posting with charts and stats is suspicious. Usually the noreaster screen name leads to trouble around here so let's see where it goes. Plus, bluewave and uncle are the only ones who should be putting up charts about climo You forgot about Sacrus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 I can't believe how dramatically different the gfs runs are from one run to the next, its like the model has no clue. In any case, the latest runs continue to delay the cold and give us more of the same that we've seen for the past month, warm warm warm, brief cool shot, warm and warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 I can't believe how dramatically different the gfs runs are from one run to the next, its like the model has no clue. In any case, the latest runs continue to delay the cold and give us more of the same that we've seen for the past month, warm warm warm, brief cool shot, warm and warm. Which "runs" are these? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Which "runs" are these? the 12UTC and the 18UTC today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 I can't believe how dramatically different the gfs runs are from one run to the next, its like the model has no clue. In any case, the latest runs continue to delay the cold and give us more of the same that we've seen for the past month, warm warm warm, brief cool shot, warm and warm. The 18z GFS run isn't that bad compared to the 12z GFS, although IMO it makes more sense at hour 192 as I doubt that the arctic air comes spilling in that strong like the 12z GFS showed. It still fluctuates from mild to cold, but there is definitely an improvement in the pattern as the "warm" isn't as warm as it's been this month, and the "cold" isn't as short lasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 the 12UTC and the 18UTC today Well then it's official, you really have no clue what you're looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Forget the GFS the ECMWF is king when it comes to middle range forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Go with the ensembles. They have been showing cold for severa l days now. Have not change their tune. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 DT is getting excited about the cold air coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Go with the ensembles. They have been showing cold for severa l days now. Have not change their tune. and that makes them right? LOL. Most models have had cold of some sorts coming in 2nd half of November.....verification: Historic warmth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 28, 2011 Author Share Posted November 28, 2011 and that makes them right? LOL. Most models have had cold of some sorts coming in 2nd half of November.....verification: Historic warmth here is some more historic warmth if the cmc ensembles are correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 DT is getting excited about the cold air coming. that is b/c he was humping the 12z GFS.....he wont be humping the 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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