Snow_Miser Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Um... does anyone else think that the CPC could be having some problems with the AO map? The AO likely did not drop to negative as this graph shows, and it's probably just some graphing error, because the CPC Observations show the AO has reached the most positive state it has ever been this fall and summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Time to open the windows again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Time to open the windows again. My dad sealed all the windows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Another 2 or 3 days of 60s left... today is NYC's 11th 60+ degree day this month. The last 2 Novembers only had 6 days over 60 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 The 1st half of December is shot for big snows. The 2nd half is still up in the air. I wouldn't completely rule out the first half. There could be a sneaky storm in there somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Gfs is certainly cold due to a big PV to our north. -10 line to NYC at hour 180. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Gfs is certainly cold due to a big PV to our north. -10 line to NYC at hour 180. The PNA ridge looks nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Most guidance is developing a fairly anomalous PV over the Davis Straight by hour 300. Yikes. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSHGTAVGNH_6z/f300.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 1322411789[/url]' post='1145612']The PNA ridge looks nice. Although it didn't show anything, looking at upper air maps, there are several chances at snow squalls and near miss coastals. The day 9-13 period needs to be watched, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 That is a beautiful PNA ridge on the GFS. Tries to get something going around the 5-6th while we have that nice looking trough over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 That is a beautiful PNA ridge on the GFS. Tries to get something going around the 5-6th while we have that nice looking trough over us. That is the first accumulating snow threat. The second one would be 12/12-13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Another 2 or 3 days of 60s left... today is NYC's 11th 60+ degree day this month. The last 2 Novembers only had 6 days over 60 degrees. there was 16 in 1979...13 in 1948 and 1975... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 The 12z GFS develops a nice PNA ridge and a -EPO in the long range.It looks to get really cold in the east in the long range. The ensembles have been steadfast with the idea of cold in the east as we head into December. There also look to be several chances of snow in this pattern . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 That is a beautiful PNA ridge on the GFS. Tries to get something going around the 5-6th while we have that nice looking trough over us. But it's going to collapse, its not sustained, with a +NAO any cold air will only last a few days and then go to warm or transition between warm and cold. It becomes difficult to time a snow event in that kind of pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 But it's going to collapse, its not sustained, with a +NAO any cold air will only last a few days and then go to warm or transition between warm and cold. It becomes difficult to time a snow event in that kind of pattern. Once again, we don't need a -NAO to get snow. Yes it's essential, but it's not a must. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 1322412349[/url]' post='1145641']But it's going to collapse, its not sustained, with a +NAO any cold air will only last a few days and then go to warm or transition between warm and cold. It becomes difficult to time a snow event in that kind of pattern. Who gives a ****? If it produces accumulating snow then so what? People are too concerned about sustained cold patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 JB also talked about the potential of a storm near the 5th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 But it's going to collapse, its not sustained, with a +NAO any cold air will only last a few days and then go to warm or transition between warm and cold. It becomes difficult to time a snow event in that kind of pattern. That's actually 100% false. You CAN'T get storms without temperature contrasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Once again, we don't need a -NAO to get snow. Yes it's essential, but it's not a must. It's sometimes difficult to get snow even in a perfect pattern so when you have a strong +NAO, the difficulty increases tenfold. Snows can happen in a +NAO but it's very difficult. The PNA, though it may not hold for too long will be our aid this time. PNA driven storms are difficult to time too but it's a lot better than having a +NAO/-PNA going into December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 It's sometimes difficult to get snow even in a perfect pattern so when you have a strong +NAO, the difficulty increases tenfold. Snows can happen in a +NAO but it's very difficult. The PNA, though it may not hold for too long will be our aid this time. PNA driven storms are difficult to time too but it's a lot better than having a +NAO/-PNA going into December. It's really difficult to get snow when the PNA,NAO,AO and EPO are all positive. What we have in our favor going forward is the PNA ridge in the west and a -EPO. The -EPO and the + PNA will deliver the cold air into the region. While it might be transient, there will be a few chances of getting snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Once again, we don't need a -NAO to get snow. Yes it's essential, but it's not a must. Nice English there Ant lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Who gives a ****? If it produces accumulating snow then so what? People are too concerned about sustained cold patterns. Agree. Let it snow anyway it can. I don't care if it's 60 the next day. It's still better than no snow at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 was anyone else surprised how cold it was last night? NWS was showing a low near 50 and JFK went down to 37. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Agree. Let it snow anyway it can. I don't care if it's 60 the next day. It's still better than no snow at all. Yeah. Spoiled people here only chase KU storms. Give me 2" of snow with temps in the mid 20's and I'm thrilled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Once again, we don't need a -NAO to get snow. Yes it's essential, but it's not a must. Exactly, Ant. I'd be perfectly fine with getting a snow event then letting the trough move out and us be mild for a day or two before another one looks to be dropping in soon after. Like the GFS shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 JB also talked about the potential of a storm near the 5th. Did you watch the video? It's a midewest storm...nothing but warmth and rain for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Did you watch the video? It's a midewest storm...nothing but warmth and rain for us. GFS has highs in the 30's and lows in the mid 20's for several days under the big PV to our north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Yeah. Spoiled people here only chase KU storms. Give me 2" of snow with temps in the mid 20's and I'm thrilled. A couple of 2-4 inch snows in December are fine with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Exactly, Ant. I'd be perfectly fine with getting a snow event then letting the trough move out and us be mild for a day or two before another one looks to be dropping in soon after. Like the GFS shows. Remember when 1-3, 2-4 inch snows use to be the theme for our area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 was anyone else surprised how cold it was last night? NWS was showing a low near 50 and JFK went down to 37. I mentioned it earlier in this thread. It got much colder than forecasted. I noticed it late last night when I went to the window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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