Rainshadow Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 I saw Wes's post in the nao thread, the point I was trying to make was that the GFS has been underforecasting the +ao and the ec's strato outlook has it more centered over the globe than the GFS trying to ease it into Hudson Bay. That being said the NAEFS week two temperature outlooks have slowly been favoring near normal for us which is an obvious step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 The infamous massive coastal at 384 on the GFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 I saw Wes's post in the nao thread, the point I was trying to make was that the GFS has been underforecasting the +ao and the ec's strato outlook has it more centered over the globe than the GFS trying to ease it into Hudson Bay. That being said the NAEFS week two temperature outlooks have slowly been favoring near normal for us which is an obvious step in the right direction. So just checking, is that the GFS's forecast from 240 hours ago? If so, wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 3, 2011 Author Share Posted December 3, 2011 i hope the 0z euro ens are wrong, because thats a wretched looking map for day 10 on. Flattened flow across the us, meaning pacific air storms the conus...insanely pos nao and ao. what sucks, going off the mjo forecasts, their really isnt any really driving force to change the current pattern we are in, its just doing loops in the same given areas that arent favorable for big cold and coastal snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 So just checking, is that the GFS's forecast from 240 hours ago? If so, wow. Yeah that was the 240hr 500mb forecast that was valid at 06z this morning. I was really more interested on how the GFS was handling the pv after seeing Wes's thread comments. I don't know if this was within this family of runs, but the GFS did very poorly in the longer term with the system in the middle of this past week. It didn't close the low off and was way too progressive with the cold front and pcpn (starting it Sunday, ending it on Monday morning) which would just compound the errors further down the line in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Tombo, good post about the 240 euro ensemble mean, it is ugly in all the ways you note. I guess the only good news si that in the longer range the models haven't been very good but there are reasons to think the pac idea and positive nao be around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 This pattern is so bad the gfs can't even cook up its usual fantasy storms. I don't remember a winter like that lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 This pattern is so bad the gfs can't even cook up its usual fantasy storms. I don't remember a winter like that lol 07-08 was like that. Fail city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 3, 2011 Author Share Posted December 3, 2011 12z euro has a coastal developing that skirts the coastal locations...temps are pretty warm so i would imagine it would be a mix or rain..if it were to track closer prob would be some wet snow for the burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 This pattern is so bad the gfs can't even cook up its usual fantasy storms. I don't remember a winter like that lol It did last night, though at the very end of the run. Still a lot of model disagreement with even the storm with the front, so I'm remaining cautiously optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 It did last night, though at the very end of the run. Still a lot of model disagreement with even the storm with the front, so I'm remaining cautiously optimistic. The good thing is that the pattern is about to change to a colder one. The next step is to get some snow. Patience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 The good thing is that the pattern is about to change to a colder one. The next step is to get some snow. Patience. You need the pattern to lock in colder first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 THE SECOND CAMP (SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST ECMWF AND THE LATEST NAEFS SLATE OF FORECASTS) SUGGESTS THAT THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY EJECTED FROM THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL COME OUT IN PIECES. THESE SOLUTIONS ALSO SUGGEST A COLDER OVERALL SOLUTION...WHICH COULD MEAN A PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUE FOR LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY NORTH AND WEST OF THE I 95 CORRIDOR...AND EVEN THE LATEST GEFS PLUMES SUPPORT SOME TYPE OF PRECIPITATION ISSUE HERE. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THIS: IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THERE WILL BE A SECOND SHOT OF PRECIPITATION LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT TIMING WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE. THE AIRMASS SOURCE IS STILL MOIST... WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE HEAVY RAIN. WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE A PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUE IS STILL MUCH TOO EARLY TO CALL...BUT WILL HAVE TO BE EXAMINED WITH TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soadforecaster Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 THE SECOND CAMP (SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST ECMWF AND THE LATEST NAEFS SLATE OF FORECASTS) SUGGESTS THAT THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY EJECTED FROM THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL COME OUT IN PIECES. THESE SOLUTIONS ALSO SUGGEST A COLDER OVERALL SOLUTION...WHICH COULD MEAN A PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUE FOR LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY NORTH AND WEST OF THE I 95 CORRIDOR...AND EVEN THE LATEST GEFS PLUMES SUPPORT SOME TYPE OF PRECIPITATION ISSUE HERE. looks like 18z gfs agrees, shows a poss storm comming up the coast. best shot we have had since oct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 3, 2011 Author Share Posted December 3, 2011 Just going off the gfs solely, deff two potential threats. The first one the interrior has the best shot. I just don't see any driving mechanism to drain the ll cold air down into the coastal plain till the storm leaves, or it would have to take a perfect track. The weekend threat i think has a better shot at snow for a lot of people outside the coast. Cold air should be easy tapped or already established, just need to see what kind of track its going to take. without any blocking any system has the chance of running inland. As modelled now i like the ridge axis progged by the gfs for a coastal, time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Tom This really has the look of a fascinating winter....few shots at big coastal lows but fairly frequent overrunning events with precip type issues. This sure feels like a chance at a few significant ice events during the winter. Should be interesting to track Enjoy Paul Just going off the gfs solely, deff two potential threats. The first one the interrior has the best shot. I just don't see any driving mechanism to drain the ll cold air down into the coastal plain till the storm leaves, or it would have to take a perfect track. The weekend threat i think has a better shot at snow for a lot of people outside the coast. Cold air should be easy tapped or already established, just need to see what kind of track its going to take. without any blocking any system has the chance of running inland. As modelled now i like the ridge axis progged by the gfs for a coastal, time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Tom This really has the look of a fascinating winter....few shots at big coastal lows but fairly frequent overrunning events with precip type issues. This sure feels like a chance at a few significant ice events during the winter. Should be interesting to track Enjoy Paul I agree and I guess it's back to reality for us coastal dwellers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 4, 2011 Author Share Posted December 4, 2011 gfs for the first system on wed night into thurs, colder for the storm, but cause of this it surpresses the storm. Dc area may see some snow, can't really tell til the soundings come out, interrior south jersey may see some small accum to, but thicknesses are very borderline, soundings will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 4, 2011 Author Share Posted December 4, 2011 gfs for the first system on wed night into thurs, colder for the storm, but cause of this it surpresses the storm. Dc area may see some snow, can't really tell til the soundings come out, interrior south jersey may see some small accum to, but thicknesses are very borderline, soundings will tell. precip actually never makes it into these areas, skew t shows huge dry air pocket...if the precip was heavy enough it would wet bulb it down to where it could snow... also looking at the gfs, their is no precip at all really in the cold section...so while you want the storm to track closer, it will also bring in warmer temps, which are borderline to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 6z GFS looks nice for Wednesday night-Thursday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Good morning to the 6 Z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 A-town I just mainly sit back and listen to the discussions but 6z gfs looked pretty nice to me, would that be snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 A-town I just mainly sit back and listen to the discussions but 6z gfs looked pretty nice to me, would that be snow? Temperatures .... At 108 hrs they are in the 30s but not below freezing...but the above are indeed good for snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Not sure why but unable to see your attachments atown-wow didn't really expect to see that. Big difference from Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Not sure why but unable to see your attachments atown-wow didn't really expect to see that. Big difference from Euro Not sure why either. Pretty much was expecting this after i seen the 00z ensemble means,,,the ECM means and the UKMET..I can see all the images though that i have posted... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Not sure why but unable to see your attachments atown-wow didn't really expect to see that. Big difference from Euro the low wave is a bit more amplified which in turn brings the track closer to us. In the grand scheme of things, a 100-150 mile difference four days out isn't really huge and is pretty much "typical" for modeling differences. I'm pretty sure you'll see many more of these types of differences pop up through the winter. Also, for those keeping track on rain/snow lines you need this to be a bit stronger and colder at the surface. Bottom atmosphere is kinda warm for everyone outside of the Lehigh Valley and Berks...and even there you run the risk of not getting much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 ^ adding one major asterisk to the above, the GFS has been awful over the last ten days or so with handling disturbances within the pattern. It was pretty putrid with last week's storm system...Euro ended up being closer to right. Euro has also been a bit more consistent with handling this coming week's frontal system as well whereas the GFS went from bombing low on the 12z yesterday to a weaker wave on 0z to a Thursday night/Friday storm on 6z. Lots of inconsistency run-to-run right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 ^ adding one major asterisk to the above, the GFS has been awful over the last ten days or so with handling disturbances within the pattern. It was pretty putrid with last week's storm system...Euro ended up being closer to right. Euro has also been a bit more consistent with handling this coming week's frontal system as well whereas the GFS went from bombing low on the 12z yesterday to a weaker wave on 0z to a Thursday night/Friday storm on 6z. Lots of inconsistency run-to-run right now. With last week's storm in the medium range, it even did worse than the navy nogaps, congrats 4th place. BTW 06z run also statistically has been the worst run of the day the last month. That being said if a second wave does come by temps could be marginal, so there is a chance vs no chance at all. Dr.No is flatter and has some light measurable snow centered in lower Delmarva on Thursday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 4, 2011 Author Share Posted December 4, 2011 the low wave is a bit more amplified which in turn brings the track closer to us. In the grand scheme of things, a 100-150 mile difference four days out isn't really huge and is pretty much "typical" for modeling differences. I'm pretty sure you'll see many more of these types of differences pop up through the winter. Also, for those keeping track on rain/snow lines you need this to be a bit stronger and colder at the surface. Bottom atmosphere is kinda warm for everyone outside of the Lehigh Valley and Berks...and even there you run the risk of not getting much. soundings wise, this as all snow for the airport...the problem area is right around the 800-700mb zone where their is a warm punch, which is whats making the thicknesses higher... I agree with your overall assessment though, gfs has been putrid so don;t hold your breath on it. Though, the fact the euro is still threatening, and wouldn't take much to come a little further west shows it deff has potential... i still don;t like this for the coastal plain, i think the burbs on out have the best shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 soundings wise, this as all snow for the airport...the problem area is right around the 800-700mb zone where their is a warm punch, which is whats making the thicknesses higher... I agree with your overall assessment though, gfs has been putrid so don;t hold your breath on it. Though, the fact the euro is still threatening, and wouldn't take much to come a little further west shows it deff has potential... i still don;t like this for the coastal plain, i think the burbs on out have the best shot. hadn't looked at soundings (Barker's site didn't have the 6z up) and looked at the thickness map verbatim. Looked a bit warm in the lower levels through given the 540 was west while the 850 was east. I do see the 1000-850 showing a colder surface but temps are surface are still above freezing (IIRC) most everywhere except LV and Berks. Am not enthused about this to be honest...we're threading a small needle with a rather big piece of string...not an easy task. Given the GFS' tendency to flip all over the place the last few runs I'm not really buying anything of substance. Euro seems much more reasonable at this point...even if it trends a touch north and throws some sh*t into the n & w burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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