Rainshadow Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 I've revised my Christmas wish list, winter 2011-12 certified tiki tourch Without my glasses on, I thought those were golf clubs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 going off the 0z gfs, but a decent amount of the indiv ens members have rain going over to some wet snow that could accum a bit. Granted these events never materialize, can't even remember the last time this occured. Just wanted to bring it back up again since their is a small possibility of some anafront kind of action, though small. ALso, the gfs is really the only model showing this.... Maybe, maybe not snow to PHL this time, but this looks like one of the three systems du jour for the upcoming winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Not much to really say at this point. I suppose you guys still should watch how or if that cold can seep south after the 9th. If it's anything like the euro or gfs show, sometimes it can seep a little further south than modeled...the shallow stuff that is. Of course a lot of time lies between now and then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Your mansion is that far from the office, eh? If I had a mansion, I would build it in New Jersey, so it'd be much, much further away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Fortunately, the 00z GFS is still cold. Dry, though, but there are some hints of storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 going off the 0z gfs, but a decent amount of the indiv ens members have rain going over to some wet snow that could accum a bit. Granted these events never materialize, can't even remember the last time this occured. Just wanted to bring it back up again since their is a small possibility of some anafront kind of action, though small. ALso, the gfs is really the only model showing this.... There has to be some kind of wave of low pressure for it to work, the stronger the better. As for a straight ana-front going from rain to snow... .yeah, I don't remember the last time that worked either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Fortunately, the 00z GFS is still cold. Dry, though, but there are some hints of storms. We're in the low 40's late next week verbatim. Just want to define what "cold" models out to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 We're in the low 40's late next week verbatim. Just want to define what "cold" models out to be. It looks like the GFS has trended "colder" in week 2 now that its mjo outlook is mirroring the circle of death solution. Otherwise the gwo is in the circle of death and no signs of a ssw. The naefs weekly outlooks are vacillating between near normal and warmer percentages. Pretty much meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 It looks like the GFS has trended "colder" in week 2 now that its mjo outlook is mirroring the circle of death solution. Otherwise the gwo is in the circle of death and no signs of a ssw. The naefs weekly outlooks are vacillating between near normal and warmer percentages. Pretty much meh. Euro weeklies are not good for snow lovers. Cooler than two weeks ago, but still +temp anomalies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Euro weeklies are not good for snow lovers. Cooler than two weeks ago, but still +temp anomalies. Is that thru December and into Jan or just for Dec? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Is that thru December and into Jan or just for Dec? 32 days would end on Jan 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 It looks like the GFS has trended "colder" in week 2 now that its mjo outlook is mirroring the circle of death solution. Otherwise the gwo is in the circle of death and no signs of a ssw. The naefs weekly outlooks are vacillating between near normal and warmer percentages. Pretty much meh. So basically my new snowblower will remain brand new until further notice. Given the last two rather active winters, it will be interesting to see how this winter turns out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 32 days would end on Jan 3. Thanks, I could see a pattern change possibly coming sometime in the 1st half of Jan or at least the raging polar vortex weakening enough to make the pattern more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 So basically my new snowblower will remain brand new until further notice. Given the last two rather active winters, it will be interesting to see how this winter turns out. There's always next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Thanks, I could see a pattern change possibly coming sometime in the 1st half of Jan or at least the raging polar vortex weakening enough to make the pattern more interesting. Thanks, Wes. I'm struggling to find something to force the pattern to change until we get the MJO in the Western Hemisphere... which I can't see before mid-Jan. What do you think would weaken the PV? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Thanks, Wes. I'm struggling to find something to force the pattern to change until we get the MJO in the Western Hemisphere... which I can't see before mid-Jan. What do you think would weaken the PV? I'm not even half of Wes on my best day, so just WAGing that the chances for ssw events increase as we go deeper in the winter. Last time I checked the qbo did go negative but I don't know if its the rate, value or tendency that would increase the chances further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 I'm not even half of Wes on my best day, so just WAGing that the chances for ssw events increase as we go deeper in the winter. Last time I checked the qbo did go negative but I don't know if its the rate, value or tendency that would increase the chances further. Southwesterly events increasing as we go deeper into the winter would tend to open the door to more ice. Right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Southwesterly events increasing as we go deeper into the winter would tend to open the door to more ice. Right? I might be using the wrong acronym, but meant stratospheric warming in this post. But to answer your question yeah. I'm not sure if Al has had the college volunteers working on updating our ice climatology, but feel at least down our way January is an insufferable month for ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 I'm not even half of Wes on my best day, so just WAGing that the chances for ssw events increase as we go deeper in the winter. Last time I checked the qbo did go negative but I don't know if its the rate, value or tendency that would increase the chances further. Hey Tony, the revised HT relationship adds solar into the equation. -QBO/-solar and +QBO/+solar are good for SSWs. As of right now, we are -QBO/+solar, so I think we're going to need to see the sun quiet down before we can get a SSW. That said, I'm paying very close attention to what the solar guys are saying for this very reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Hey Tony, the revised HT relationship adds solar into the equation. -QBO/-solar and +QBO/+solar are good for SSWs. As of right now, we are -QBO/+solar, so I think we're going to need to see the sun quiet down before we can get a SSW. That said, I'm paying very close attention to what the solar guys are saying for this very reason. Adam, Thank-you. Never knew that. One of our co-workers (well there are two) that are into space weather told me that there is a tendency to have a pair of better, sometimes block buster winters in the ascending phase and near the peak (2002-3 as an e.g.). There are obviously other variables and exceptions involved, but he was not that enthused about a three peat for this winter because we had the ascending couplet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Thanks, Wes. I'm struggling to find something to force the pattern to change until we get the MJO in the Western Hemisphere... which I can't see before mid-Jan. What do you think would weaken the PV? Maybe a ssw event now that the QBO has gone negative. I'd also watch the ozone to see whether it is increasing in the poles. Right now I think the raging low level easterlies are going to limit how far east the convection gets in the tropical Pacific which is another reason why I think it might be hard to get a pattern change until sometime in Jan. Also, looking at the plot and comparing it with the baldwin Dunkerton Figure. Note that the cold vortex events last about two months in the composite before weakening. They looked at 30 cold vortex events. I look at the fist figure and it looks to me like we have about another 30 days or so it this cold vortex event follows the composite but that just a WAG. That's all I'm capable of in the longer time ranges. No one has much skill for snow levers that should be come consolation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 I might be using the wrong acronym, but meant stratospheric warming in this post. But to answer your question yeah. I'm not sure if Al has had the college volunteers working on updating our ice climatology, but feel at least down our way January is an insufferable month for ice. Ah okay. I was not quite sure if that is what you meant but yeah those southwesterly flow events are no picnic (as you know). Gotta love all of the acronym's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 This is the way I feel right now. Think positive for winter Ok I know what I want for Christmas now. A Cummins powered snow thrower. Thanks!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Tom shouldn't be too sad, there's still been more snow back home so far this "winter" than here in Elko, and it doesn't look like I'll be getting any more for a while. At this rate, there might not be any here til I'm back East for the holidays. Figures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 GFs goes bat$hit crazy with the PNA.. 1st frame is hour 123: 2nd is hour 264: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 0z Euro looks like it has a rain to snow solution with the frontal boundary. Little to no accumulation, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoSnow Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 ^ interesting to note the changes from it's 12z run are rather drastic though. When euro does that, it always catches my eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 0z Euro looks like it has a rain to snow solution with the frontal boundary. Little to no accumulation, though. The greater accumulation would be N & W into the ABE region where it would be 2-4 inches according to pro met Bobby Martrich... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 0z Euro looks like it has a rain to snow solution with the frontal boundary. Little to no accumulation, though. The boundary layer on the EC is torchy...540 is generally along/west of 95 and surface temps are a bit warm. If precip is heavy enough, it *could* end as snow but we know that a lot of those post-frontal snows don't verify from modeling outside of the Poconos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/MRF_6z/mrfloop2.html Interesting runs of the GFS overnite. 0z and 6z both colder in the long term and both show a coastal storm at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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