NaoPos Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 for a good neg nao for us and especially south, you want that sucker to ridge back towards the davis straights and baffin island region, ala last year. If it every happens, (which im skeptical) it would be a good start.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 29, 2011 Author Share Posted November 29, 2011 If it every happens, (which im skeptical) it would be a good start.. agreed, it would be a good start..but you see how the hgest anomalies are on the east side of green land you want them on the west side, then we are talking turkey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 only thing you have to watch out with those graphs is...yes its technically a -nao, and its ten times better than what we have now, but this -nao is east based which isnt that great, but still better than a pos nao. So its good that we are getting a -nao, but it still may not yield snow. I wih they had nao graphs that break it down towards east based or west based. [/quo Another negative factor is the AO which looks to remain steadily positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 agreed, it would be a good start..but you see how the hgest anomalies are on the east side of green land you want them on the west side, then we are talking turkey. Exactly, i just was a wee bit excited to see the greenland ridging disconnected from the North Atlantic Ridge. Baby steps though... Hell, even a little 50/50 Low But like i mentioned earlier, whether or not it's a transient feature or it's gonna hold, remains to be seen. (or if it even happens!!) But like you said Tom, baby steps. For anyone that's not sure between greenland ridging and Ridging from the NAR extending into greenland , here's a pretty decent depiction between the 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Cold focus seems to be setting up for Lakes more than EC...still cold though compared to now...love the reload at 240 on the Euro...subzero in the Midwest FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 30, 2011 Author Share Posted November 30, 2011 Cold focus seems to be setting up for Lakes more than EC...still cold though compared to now...love the reload at 240 on the Euro...subzero in the Midwest FTW. it makes sense with the position of the ridge out west to be aimed at the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 0z gfs is Mehh long range. Gradient flow thanks to se ridge and PV sitting more towards the central conus/ Canadian border. Nothing to get excited about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 0z gfs is Mehh long range. Gradient flow thanks to se ridge and PV sitting more towards the central conus/ Canadian border. Nothing to get excited about. It has cold air, though transient. The warmth also doesn't last. The -PNA at the end wouldn't be good, but that's far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 As is the case the ensemble means are different and the ECM really is the model you want to watch not the GFS... ECM blows the GFS out of the waters! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Congrats Minneapolis! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 30, 2011 Author Share Posted November 30, 2011 0z euro went back to the idea it had on yesterdays 0z run...it brings a closed h5 low to the south of us next wednesday and forms a low offshore along baroclinic zone which is just offshore...prob brings a couple inches of snow to the area especially from the city on north...long range on the euro looks meh...flattens out the pac ridge, with a neutral pna, pos epoc...and has a n. atl ridge... euro ens back the the op up, with flattening the pacific ridge which teleconnects for some response by the se ridge, and the atl pattern features not much blocking still. Everything screams no sustained cold and transient shots of cold for a couple days, blah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 ^^ couple inches of the wet or white? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 30, 2011 Author Share Posted November 30, 2011 ^^ couple inches of the wet or white? white Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 white Verbatim, there is nothing south of ABE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 30, 2011 Author Share Posted November 30, 2011 Verbatim, there is nothing south of ABE. Yea i didnt look at the wunderground site to see how much falls...i just assumed it was snow with sub 530 thicknesses and -5 to -8 850 with temps in the 30s though above freezing from abe south...so its prob a case of its snowing but not sticking. Qpf isnt a ton but prob. 1-.25 over the region esp north of city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Yea i didnt look at the wunderground site to see how much falls...i just assumed it was snow with sub 530 thicknesses and -5 to -8 850 with temps in the 30s though above freezing from abe south...so its prob a case of its snowing but not sticking. Qpf isnt a ton but prob. 1-.25 over the region esp north of city. Oh. Yeah, I should have clarified. My maps have 2" as a threshold. So "nothing" = less than 2 inches. My bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 30, 2011 Author Share Posted November 30, 2011 Oh. Yeah, I should have clarified. My maps have 2" as a threshold. So "nothing" = less than 2 inches. My bad. Lol that is basically nothing but to some seeing snow would be a plus rather than this warm crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 verbatim the 850 is north of the city on the 2nd of the two events (hour 222+, the one for later next week)...the first event (174-186, next Wednesday) could bring snow showers into the city but you're relying on wrap-around moisture on a downslope...probably more a flizzard than anything of note. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Yea i didnt look at the wunderground site to see how much falls...i just assumed it was snow with sub 530 thicknesses and -5 to -8 850 with temps in the 30s though above freezing from abe south...so its prob a case of its snowing but not sticking. Qpf isnt a ton but prob. 1-.25 over the region esp north of city. The wunderground Euro snowfall maps appears more sophisticated than an AWIPs "snowfall" product generator we have for the GFS and NAM. Its always accumulating with them. It looks like the up an down thoughts continue to have legs. It also looks like the GFS is cooling its MJO jet, joining the circle of death crowd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 It looks like the up an down thoughts continue to have legs. It also looks like the GFS is cooling its MJO jet, joining the circle of death crowd. And then back to a torch once the EPO ridge goes down mid-month... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 verbatim the 850 is north of the city on the 2nd of the two events (hour 222+, the one for later next week)...the first event (174-186, next Wednesday) could bring snow showers into the city but you're relying on wrap-around moisture on a downslope...probably more a flizzard than anything of note. I wonder if we can input that word into our forecast database. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 And then back to a torch once the EPO ridge goes down mid-month... Meh its all Mike's and mine fault. Mike buys the new snow thrower and I go out and buy a fireplace insert with half a cord of wood waiting to be burned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 30, 2011 Author Share Posted November 30, 2011 Meh its all Mike's and mine fault. Mike buys the new snow thrower and I go out and buy a fireplace insert with half a cord of wood waiting to be burned. well you can time the burning on the 2-3 day cold snaps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Meh its all Mike's and mine fault. Mike buys the new snow thrower and I go out and buy a fireplace insert with half a cord of wood waiting to be burned. Add me to the blame list. i dropped a few grand on a new wood burning stove with 3 cords all seasoned and ready! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 No worries its not December yet but I did tune-up my snowblower in 60+ degree temps over the weekend . Hopefully the local ski areas will see some snow making temps soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Add me to the blame list. i dropped a few grand on a new wood burning stove with 3 cords all seasoned and ready! snow shovel for the kids . . . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Meh its all Mike's and mine fault. Mike buys the new snow thrower and I go out and buy a fireplace insert with half a cord of wood waiting to be burned. Add me to the blame list. i dropped a few grand on a new wood burning stove with 3 cords all seasoned and ready! Well, we are screwed now for this winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 snow shovel for the kids . . . . . took the snow thrower out of the barn 4 weeks ago...... my bad...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 From DT *** ALERT *** POTENTIAL -- POTENTIAL for Severe cold outbreak DEC 6-10 for Entire Eastern half of the US ..2 waves of serious cold FIRST wave of cold DEC 5-6-7... 2nd wave of serious Cold DEC 9-10-11.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 From DT *** ALERT *** POTENTIAL -- POTENTIAL for Severe cold outbreak DEC 6-10 for Entire Eastern half of the US ..2 waves of serious cold FIRST wave of cold DEC 5-6-7... 2nd wave of serious Cold DEC 9-10-11.. West of Apps, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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