tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2012 Author Share Posted January 16, 2012 also of note, maybe some lgt snow friday with the clipper that passes to the north. It doesn't appear to be much since we will be on the wrong side of the system, but the pocs could see some accums, while areas further south may see some snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 I don't know enough about the climate of KNYC to comment intelligently. I actually don't have much of a problem with what he posted in terms of the actual weather. My post was more about how he decided to frame his forecast. I know I'm a "warminista," but to me, the biggest weather story in the next two weeks is the exceptionally warm temps showing up in Week 2, not the transient cold this weekend or late next week. Lowest temp at Central Park Sun/Mon was 15F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Lowest temp at Central Park Sun/Mon was 15F. BOS got to 6. Not surprised he busted low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 GFS op model continues to trend deeper with a -NAO towards the end of the month. No such trend on the EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 GFS op model continues to trend deeper with a -NAO towards the end of the month. No such trend on the EURO I wouldn't look for an NAO shift until the end of the month at the earliest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 GFS op model continues to trend deeper with a -NAO towards the end of the month. No such trend on the EURO It looks much less impressive when you look at H5. It's a transient crappy ridge as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 What's with that wave the GFS is showing for Saturday? Looks more impressive each run (relative to any other wave we had all winter anyway). This could be our big one for the year coming up based on the pattern we're locked into. Let's hope the clipper forces things south so we can lock in enough cold for all snow! This will be our last shot before the extended torch coming next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 12z Euro has a nice snowstorm (4-6") for areas north of I-78. North of I-76, it starts as snow but changes to rain fairly quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 12Z GFS ensemble mean shows rain for most of us except up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Looks more impressive each run (relative to any other wave we had all winter anyway). This could be our big one for the year coming up based on the pattern we're locked into. Let's hope the clipper forces things south so we can lock in enough cold for all snow! This will be our last shot before the extended torch coming next week. It could be a couple to a few days of warmth instead. We also have a 2 potential chances of snow (clipper and overrunning). That is better than we had recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 torch is definitely muting though for Sun-Mon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 torch is definitely muting though for Sun-Mon. STL-IND-CVG ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 torch is definitely muting though for Sun-Mon. let the muting begin! :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 STL-IND-CVG ftw Yep...hoping we still snag 60+ out of it...that looks pretty likely though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Torch still looks healthy on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Yep...hoping we still snag 60+ out of it...that looks pretty likely though. Yeah, I still think at least one of the days next week will be in the mid-to-upper 60s. But I was hoping the whole week would be like that... of course, trying to get +25 anomalies for an entire week is kinda hard to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Yeah, I still think at least one of the days next week will be in the mid-to-upper 60s. But I was hoping the whole week would be like that... of course, trying to get +25 anomalies for an entire week is kinda hard to do. The event at 120-132 hrs ..I am seeing the 540 line basically North into NE PA by 126 hrs..Do you really think this would end up as an interior snow event or more in the way of icing potential...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 The event at 120-132 hrs ..I am seeing the 540 line basically North into NE PA by 126 hrs..Do you really think this would end up as an interior snow event or more in the way of icing potential...? I don't think the frozen area will be as widespread as advertised by the 12z Euro, but I do think there is a threat on the table for that period. My guess is that it would be snow changing over to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 I don't think the frozen area will be as widespread as advertised by the 12z Euro, but I do think there is a threat on the table for that period. My guess is that it would be snow changing over to rain. Any updates on today's ECM weeklies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Any updates on today's ECM weeklies? They don't come out for another 90 min and I have to depend on a little birdie to share them with me. If I hear anything, I'll post it here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 They don't come out for another 90 min and I have to depend on a little birdie to share them with me. If I hear anything, I'll post it here. Cool thanks just curious to know whether they continue the above normal theme or not... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Joe Bastardi GFS ensembles hint at Fab Feb for lovers of winter.. as neg ao/nao develop..block heading to Greenland in longer term Joe Bastardi Euro model of choice for end of cold snap snow/ice storm midwest to northeast Friday and Saturday. 7-10 warm up to reverse by feb 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Looks like it's just cold enough on the 18z GFS from 114-120 hours. My worry is that this could easily trend more north, but at least the surface temps look to be holding steady. Maybe it could be ice if not snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Cool thanks just curious to know whether they continue the above normal theme or not... Looks like +5, +9, +3, +4 for PHL in order Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Looks like +5, +9, +3, +4 for PHL in order Thanks ..so yeah they basically keep the warmer then normal theme riding the pattern! There was a week 4 that seemed to be better as of thursday,,,now it seems like that would be warmer then what thursday was showing for that week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Thanks ..so yeah they basically keep the warmer then normal theme riding the pattern! There was a week 4 that seemed to be better as of thursday,,,now it seems like that would be warmer then what thursday was showing for that week? Yep. Week 3 was 0 on Thursday. It's trending warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Looks like it's just cold enough on the 18z GFS from 114-120 hours. My worry is that this could easily trend more north, but at least the surface temps look to be holding steady. Maybe it could be ice if not snow. The high to the north may make this more of an ice threat to areas just below the 850mb 0C line. Today's 12z Euro is very plausible and my closest guess on what will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 18z GFS around 120 had something to bear watching..although its a trend north with temps.. over running type events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 we're in the GFS crap phase...I would be shocked if this doesn't trend north in 24-36 hours on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Yep. Week 3 was 0 on Thursday. It's trending warmer. If you are still around ""Folks, Hot off the press *fwiw*. Sure enough, the brand new Euro weeklies are again going with the trend of -NAO in the first half of Feb. They actually suggest a very strong 500 mb warm anomaly centered from S. Greenland into NE Canada and much of N. Canada. The SE US actually has slightly BELOW (yes, you read that correctly) anomalies and the coldest anomalies in just about all of N. America outside of Alaska! eeping hope that this entire winter will not be in the commode but still accepting whatever happens In week 4, the strongest warm 500 mb anomalies stretch from S. Greenland to NNE Canada north of Hudson Bay. Virtually all of Canada, all of Greenland and the north Atlantic, and the western 2/3 of the US have warm anomalies. Cold is found in most all of Europe. Also, strong cold is centered over the far western Aleutians with below normal over Alaska, the north Pacific, and E. Asia. The eastern 1/3 of the U.S. eastward to Europe as well as MX have slightly below normal anomalies. This could mean storminess near the SE US with the strong block to the north." fantastic" Seems to be different from what you stated... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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