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Medium-long range thread


tombo82685

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i was thinking of firing mine up this weekend and pushing it around my driveway with snow boots , hat and goggles on

I fire mine up every other month year 'round to keep the lovely ethanol-laced gasoline from congealing in the carb,

just in case I need to blow an inch of snow off the driveway some day (next year?).

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JB bailed on WED

Joe Bastardi was one of the big proponents of a pattern change occurring...now one of his most recent posts...

"Joe Bastardi

strat warm blooms Dec 15-Jan 5, sets up cold coming, but backed away ( so US warms Jan 20-30) new one starting now.. "

What is the story with all the strat warming talk this season.

Is this some new industry jargon?

going off the old farmers almanac I am locking up the Blizzard on the 30th-31st

JANUARY 2012: temperature 38° (5° above avg.); precipitation 2.5" (1" below avg.); Jan 1-6: Rain, then sunny, mild; Jan 7-11: Showers, then sunny, seasonable; Jan 12-19: Snow, then sunny, warm; Jan 20-24: Rain to snow, then sunny, cold;Jan 25-29: Rain and snow north; sunny, mild south; Jan 30-31: Blizzard.

FEBRUARY 2012: temperature 28° (5° below avg.); precipitation 4" (1" above avg.); Feb 1-2: Sunny, very cold; Feb 3-4: Snow to rain;Feb 5-9: Sunny; cold, then warm; Feb 10-16: Snowy periods, cold; Feb 17-19: Sunny, very cold; Feb 20-23: Snow showers, cold; Feb 24-26: Rain, mild; Feb 27-29: Stormy; snow north, rain south.

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What is the story with all the strat warming talk this season.

Is this some new industry jargon?

going off the old farmers almanac I am locking up the Blizzard on the 30th-31st

JANUARY 2012: temperature 38° (5° above avg.); precipitation 2.5" (1" below avg.); Jan 1-6: Rain, then sunny, mild; Jan 7-11: Showers, then sunny, seasonable; Jan 12-19: Snow, then sunny, warm; Jan 20-24: Rain to snow, then sunny, cold;Jan 25-29: Rain and snow north; sunny, mild south; Jan 30-31: Blizzard.

FEBRUARY 2012: temperature 28° (5° below avg.); precipitation 4" (1" above avg.); Feb 1-2: Sunny, very cold; Feb 3-4: Snow to rain;Feb 5-9: Sunny; cold, then warm; Feb 10-16: Snowy periods, cold; Feb 17-19: Sunny, very cold; Feb 20-23: Snow showers, cold; Feb 24-26: Rain, mild; Feb 27-29: Stormy; snow north, rain south.

Strat warming that works its way into the troposphere will cause pattern changes. Winters with negative qbo usually have more strat warming events. Since the stable pv over Baffin Island established itself in mid November, the persistent +ao/+nao pattern, people have been following strat warming to see if it can disrupt this stable pattern. While there have been a couple of strat warming episodes, they have not translated down into the trop as the EPVectors have been fluxing more toward the equator and this is not the circulation you want for translation into the trop. With the Atalntic ssta not great for establishing or maintaining a -nao, the -pdo in the pacific, a mjo that has been either in the cod or in warm phases since winter started, other than the occasional transitory mountain torque +pna/-epo shots, the strat warming has been looked at (rightly or wrongly) as the only agent of possible pattern change for this winter.

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Strat warming that works its way into the troposphere will cause pattern changes. Winters with negative qbo usually have more strat warming events. Since the stable pv over Baffin Island established itself in mid November, the persistent +ao/+nao pattern, people have been following strat warming to see if it can disrupt this stable pattern. While there have been a couple of strat warming episodes, they have not translated down into the trop as the EPVectors have been fluxing more toward the equator and this is not the circulation you want for translation into the trop. With the Atalntic ssta not great for establishing or maintaining a -nao, the -pdo in the pacific, a mjo that has been either in the cod or in warm phases since winter started, other than the occasional transitory mountain torque +pna/-epo shots, the strat warming has been looked at (rightly or wrongly) as the only agent of possible pattern change for this winter.

Can volcanic activity disrupt this warming effect? Can ash(sulfuric dust ) in the stratosphere change weather patterns if thrown high enough? The erupting Alaskan volcanoes could be a part of this problem?

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Can volcanic activity disrupt this warming effect? Can ash(sulfuric dust ) in the stratosphere change weather patterns if thrown high enough? The erupting Alaskan volcanoes could be a part of this problem?

I don't know. My knowledge on the subject is on the opposite end in a couple of regards: how volcanic eruptions can cause cold patterns, mainly from tropical eruptions and the delay being usually about a year. I thought the strat warming to a certain extent also depends on ozone concentrations and did we :unsure: start depleted this winter in the arctic?

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I don't know. My knowledge on the subject is on the opposite end in a couple of regards: how volcanic eruptions can cause cold patterns, mainly from tropical eruptions and the delay being usually about a year. I thought the strat warming to a certain extent also depends on ozone concentrations and did we :unsure: start depleted this winter in the arctic?

I have heard that a tropical eruption can cause a +AO prior to the global cooling period... possibly Nabro was bigger than we thought?

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I have heard that a tropical eruption can cause a +AO prior to the global cooling period... possibly Nabro was bigger than we thought?

El Chicon is the poster child for tropical volcanic influence. That ensuing winter we had the strong el nino. In this instance do we credit the el nino, El Chicon or both for the pos AO? Well I guess we'll have our Nabro results after next winter.

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Can this warmth continue into the spring and summer?

I'm just assuming we'll have a garbage spring if this keeps up. We have had a number of election year summers that have not been brutally hot, but this is just off the top of my head thoughts, no scientific backing at all. Solar peak summers have been hot of late 1980, 1991, 2002 so if its 2012 vs 2013, maybe it will trump the election year wag thought.

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I'm just assuming we'll have a garbage spring if this keeps up. We have had a number of election year summers that have not been brutally hot, but this is just off the top of my head thoughts, no scientific backing at all. Solar peak summers have been hot of late 1980, 1991, 2002 so if its 2012 vs 2013, maybe it will trump the election year wag thought.

My guess is that Spring may be crappy..especially up here. Some of that stats show this and if a -NAO finally does come....it could very well be warmer up here next week, then on Memorial Day...lol.

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Beyond the torch, I'm still not sure what is going to happen post-Feb 1. We're going to see a MT over the Himalayas at the end of the month, which will give us a -EPO to start the month. I'm not sure whether that will translate to blocking on the Atlantic side though and without that, the colder temps will be mostly to our west.

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