dryslotted Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Meanwhile we have found new uses for our snow thrower: clear plastic bag recycle center and golf shoe holder upperer. Ours has the baby's beach toys hanging off the handles lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Meanwhile we have found new uses for our snow thrower: clear plastic bag recycle center and golf shoe holder upperer. i was thinking of firing mine up this weekend and pushing it around my driveway with snow boots , hat and goggles on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 i was thinking of firing mine up this weekend and pushing it around my driveway with snow boots , hat and goggles on You can borrow my snow if you want to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 i was thinking of firing mine up this weekend and pushing it around my driveway with snow boots , hat and goggles on I fire mine up every other month year 'round to keep the lovely ethanol-laced gasoline from congealing in the carb, just in case I need to blow an inch of snow off the driveway some day (next year?). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 It looks like one last chance of flurries for the month with a clipper on Thursday or Friday. Then bring on the torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Beach day? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Paramℑ=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fgfs%2F20120114%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_276_500_vort_ht.gif&fcast=276&imagesurls=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=500_vort_ht&cycle=01%2F14%2F2012+12UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=46&nextImage=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Beach day? http://mag.ncep.noaa...6&nextImage=yes Looks like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 JB bailed on WED Joe Bastardi was one of the big proponents of a pattern change occurring...now one of his most recent posts... "Joe Bastardi strat warm blooms Dec 15-Jan 5, sets up cold coming, but backed away ( so US warms Jan 20-30) new one starting now.. " What is the story with all the strat warming talk this season. Is this some new industry jargon? going off the old farmers almanac I am locking up the Blizzard on the 30th-31st JANUARY 2012: temperature 38° (5° above avg.); precipitation 2.5" (1" below avg.); Jan 1-6: Rain, then sunny, mild; Jan 7-11: Showers, then sunny, seasonable; Jan 12-19: Snow, then sunny, warm; Jan 20-24: Rain to snow, then sunny, cold;Jan 25-29: Rain and snow north; sunny, mild south; Jan 30-31: Blizzard. FEBRUARY 2012: temperature 28° (5° below avg.); precipitation 4" (1" above avg.); Feb 1-2: Sunny, very cold; Feb 3-4: Snow to rain;Feb 5-9: Sunny; cold, then warm; Feb 10-16: Snowy periods, cold; Feb 17-19: Sunny, very cold; Feb 20-23: Snow showers, cold; Feb 24-26: Rain, mild; Feb 27-29: Stormy; snow north, rain south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 What is the story with all the strat warming talk this season. Is this some new industry jargon? going off the old farmers almanac I am locking up the Blizzard on the 30th-31st JANUARY 2012: temperature 38° (5° above avg.); precipitation 2.5" (1" below avg.); Jan 1-6: Rain, then sunny, mild; Jan 7-11: Showers, then sunny, seasonable; Jan 12-19: Snow, then sunny, warm; Jan 20-24: Rain to snow, then sunny, cold;Jan 25-29: Rain and snow north; sunny, mild south; Jan 30-31: Blizzard. FEBRUARY 2012: temperature 28° (5° below avg.); precipitation 4" (1" above avg.); Feb 1-2: Sunny, very cold; Feb 3-4: Snow to rain;Feb 5-9: Sunny; cold, then warm; Feb 10-16: Snowy periods, cold; Feb 17-19: Sunny, very cold; Feb 20-23: Snow showers, cold; Feb 24-26: Rain, mild; Feb 27-29: Stormy; snow north, rain south. Strat warming that works its way into the troposphere will cause pattern changes. Winters with negative qbo usually have more strat warming events. Since the stable pv over Baffin Island established itself in mid November, the persistent +ao/+nao pattern, people have been following strat warming to see if it can disrupt this stable pattern. While there have been a couple of strat warming episodes, they have not translated down into the trop as the EPVectors have been fluxing more toward the equator and this is not the circulation you want for translation into the trop. With the Atalntic ssta not great for establishing or maintaining a -nao, the -pdo in the pacific, a mjo that has been either in the cod or in warm phases since winter started, other than the occasional transitory mountain torque +pna/-epo shots, the strat warming has been looked at (rightly or wrongly) as the only agent of possible pattern change for this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Strat warming that works its way into the troposphere will cause pattern changes. Winters with negative qbo usually have more strat warming events. Since the stable pv over Baffin Island established itself in mid November, the persistent +ao/+nao pattern, people have been following strat warming to see if it can disrupt this stable pattern. While there have been a couple of strat warming episodes, they have not translated down into the trop as the EPVectors have been fluxing more toward the equator and this is not the circulation you want for translation into the trop. With the Atalntic ssta not great for establishing or maintaining a -nao, the -pdo in the pacific, a mjo that has been either in the cod or in warm phases since winter started, other than the occasional transitory mountain torque +pna/-epo shots, the strat warming has been looked at (rightly or wrongly) as the only agent of possible pattern change for this winter. Can volcanic activity disrupt this warming effect? Can ash(sulfuric dust ) in the stratosphere change weather patterns if thrown high enough? The erupting Alaskan volcanoes could be a part of this problem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Can volcanic activity disrupt this warming effect? Can ash(sulfuric dust ) in the stratosphere change weather patterns if thrown high enough? The erupting Alaskan volcanoes could be a part of this problem? I don't know. My knowledge on the subject is on the opposite end in a couple of regards: how volcanic eruptions can cause cold patterns, mainly from tropical eruptions and the delay being usually about a year. I thought the strat warming to a certain extent also depends on ozone concentrations and did we start depleted this winter in the arctic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 I don't know. My knowledge on the subject is on the opposite end in a couple of regards: how volcanic eruptions can cause cold patterns, mainly from tropical eruptions and the delay being usually about a year. I thought the strat warming to a certain extent also depends on ozone concentrations and did we start depleted this winter in the arctic? I have heard that a tropical eruption can cause a +AO prior to the global cooling period... possibly Nabro was bigger than we thought? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Can this warmth continue into the spring and summer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 I have heard that a tropical eruption can cause a +AO prior to the global cooling period... possibly Nabro was bigger than we thought? El Chicon is the poster child for tropical volcanic influence. That ensuing winter we had the strong el nino. In this instance do we credit the el nino, El Chicon or both for the pos AO? Well I guess we'll have our Nabro results after next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Can this warmth continue into the spring and summer? I'm just assuming we'll have a garbage spring if this keeps up. We have had a number of election year summers that have not been brutally hot, but this is just off the top of my head thoughts, no scientific backing at all. Solar peak summers have been hot of late 1980, 1991, 2002 so if its 2012 vs 2013, maybe it will trump the election year wag thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 HM tweet this AM: Climate model came out this morning and it continues to show warmth overwhelming the country through March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 I'm just assuming we'll have a garbage spring if this keeps up. We have had a number of election year summers that have not been brutally hot, but this is just off the top of my head thoughts, no scientific backing at all. Solar peak summers have been hot of late 1980, 1991, 2002 so if its 2012 vs 2013, maybe it will trump the election year wag thought. My guess is that Spring may be crappy..especially up here. Some of that stats show this and if a -NAO finally does come....it could very well be warmer up here next week, then on Memorial Day...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 HM tweet this AM: Climate model came out this morning and it continues to show warmth overwhelming the country through March. which HM ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 HM tweet this AM: Climate model came out this morning and it continues to show warmth overwhelming the country through March. Which HM is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Which HM is that? Henry Maquacksky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 JB: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Which HM is that? i asked 1st looks like the its the big daddy one and not our hm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 i asked 1st looks like the its the big daddy one and not our hm Yup if we were on Jeopardy, I'd be locked out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 GFS torches major on Monday. Some +12 850's in MD and DE... That's probably our best shot at 70+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Which HM is that? which HM ? The one who wears the big daddy hat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 GFS torches major on Monday. Some +12 850's in MD and DE... That's probably our best shot at 70+ Its a sad state of affairs when the GFS passes a 1040+ high across sern Canada and it still outlooks rain for the Poconos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Beyond the torch, I'm still not sure what is going to happen post-Feb 1. We're going to see a MT over the Himalayas at the end of the month, which will give us a -EPO to start the month. I'm not sure whether that will translate to blocking on the Atlantic side though and without that, the colder temps will be mostly to our west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 What's with that wave the GFS is showing for Saturday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 What's with that wave the GFS is showing for Saturday? There's some overrunning snow on the northern edge of the precip shield in both the GFS and Euro. It's a definite wait and see who, if anyone, will get anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 What's with that wave the GFS is showing for Saturday? Euro has rain for Philly & south, light snow north. It was mostly rain until a couple of runs ago....IMO, it'll trend milder and be rain mostly below the Poconos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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