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Medium-long range thread


tombo82685

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Hey guys. I have a quick second. Literally, I've never seen the weeklies this warm vs. normal. Week 2 is +10 at least across the whole country. Unreal.

Lolz @ Adam mentioning blowtorch! It's only 47 degrees out right now silly!

On a serious note.... Winter cancel

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Hey guys. I have a quick second. Literally, I've never seen the weeklies this warm vs. normal. Week 2 is +10 at least across the whole country. Unreal.

The GEFS means suggest that a good portion of the CONUS, especially east of the Plains, could experience 2m temperature departures of 8 degree or more above normal beginning around Day 10 and rolled forward, probably continuing through Day 15 at least.

This is supported by the retrograding Polar Vortex. The pattern definitely changed, as evidenced on all global ensembles with a tremendously anomalous ridge forming in the Pacific and moving northward. However, this ridge is too far west...and allows the Polar Vortex to retrograde and re-establish over Alaska, extending even to British Columbia Canada and as far west as the Aleutians. That is a very poor position for us. Because while there very well may be a gradient pattern to the east of it, there is nothing to keep us on the correct side of that gradient....like a -NAO for instance.

So the -EPO/AO regime definitely changed the pattern, but the lack of any high latitude blocking near the NAO region and the positioning of the two anomalous features in the Pacific...suggest that things could get very ugly to close out the month. In fact, if the modeling is generally correct, I would not be surprised if the second half of the month featured the most anomalous positive 2m temperature departures we have seen so far this winter.

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Lovin' the mild winter for a change....heating bills are back to normal!

Agree - my Dec heating bill was 35% less than last year's! Still hoping for one good snowfall, but otherwise I have been enjoying the warm weather on the golf course!

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Hurricane and LC bailed. Wes and Adam were never on board. And JB will go down with the ship. Who's left?

No way in hell am I letting JB take the wheel over on this Titanic weather pattern. If my weather pattern is the Titanic then consider me the string quartet players going until the VERY END. We are in January and people are calling it quits for snow. I hope we get a Superstorm in like in March 93. We have not even had Presidents Day, Valentines Day or the Philly Flower show. Were these the same forecasters who predicted no Irene?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-lwAc5UDdL8

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Hurricane and LC bailed. Wes and Adam were never on board. And JB will go down with the ship. Who's left?

JB bailed on WED

Joe Bastardi was one of the big proponents of a pattern change occurring...now one of his most recent posts...

"Joe Bastardi

strat warm blooms Dec 15-Jan 5, sets up cold coming, but backed away ( so US warms Jan 20-30) new one starting now.. "

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Noticed last night that bushes in the woods are actually showing green sprouts that would normally show in late March.

Things should get real interesting with the vegetation as we run toward the 70's late month.

Could be a long season for the lawn mower...

Meanwhile we have found new uses for our snow thrower: clear plastic bag recycle center and golf shoe holder upperer. :yikes:

post-623-0-16796600-1326466551.jpg

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