Rainshadow Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Man, the +5 in the last full week of January is really going to sting if it verifies. They'll be finding the weenie corpses for weeks... The forsythias will start blooming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Man, the +5 in the last full week of January is really going to sting if it verifies. They'll be finding the weenie corpses for weeks... All these Euro ensembles tell me is that we might be staring down a gun barrel for some real nasty ice storms of epic proportions. We need to watch the models closely for ice rather than just a plain mega snow event.Yes, we all may want snow but these Euros are hinting something more sinister to come. Someone in the Mt. Holly area is going to see some significant ice storm warnings if these Euros pan out. Somebody needs to look at these ensembles and compare them to previous La Nina years with no blocking and just overrunning events. We maybe surprised on these Euros are saying to us right now. By the way, any weenie corpses will be found floating in the flooded streams with yard sticks in their hands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2012 Author Share Posted January 10, 2012 I don't see anything in the next week or so to get excited about honestly. The wave along the front that may form friday could deliver some snows to pocs or lehigh valley, but outside that looks like bl is to warm. After that goes through we should see another cutter or liquid type storm out ahead of the next surge of cold air when the winds turn to the south. The possibility of something may occur if the models are right are around week 2 when that 2nd batch of arctic air comes down and sets up a gradient somewhere. That will be a focus for storms to traverse along. With brutal cold to the north and warmth to the south of it. The mjo currently is not helping anything as their is no forcing really with it being in cod. Big ticket item that is driving this pattern is the changes in the pacific with the -epo, which is pushing the vortex south away from the pole dropping the ao to neutral to somewhat negative. The atlantic side of things still looks horrid. Til we get some sort of blocking i would be very skeptical on any big coastal snow storms. Not a huge fan of how the ensembles are continuing to retrograde the epo block back west towards asia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I don't see anything in the next week or so to get excited about honestly. The wave along the front that may form friday could deliver some snows to pocs or lehigh valley, but outside that looks like bl is to warm. After that goes through we should see another cutter or liquid type storm out ahead of the next surge of cold air when the winds turn to the south. The possibility of something may occur if the models are right are around week 2 when that 2nd batch of arctic air comes down and sets up a gradient somewhere. That will be a focus for storms to traverse along. With brutal cold to the north and warmth to the south of it. The mjo currently is not helping anything as their is no forcing really with it being in cod. Big ticket item that is driving this pattern is the changes in the pacific with the -epo, which is pushing the vortex south away from the pole dropping the ao to neutral to somewhat negative. The atlantic side of things still looks horrid. Til we get some sort of blocking i would be very skeptical on any big coastal snow storms. I'm skeptical that we even see more than 3-4 days out of the next 14 that are below normal. With the way the vortex drops down in W Canada, we're going to be on the wrong side of the gradient for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2012 Author Share Posted January 10, 2012 I'm skeptical that we even see more than 3-4 days out of the next 14 that are below normal. With the way the vortex drops down in W Canada, we're going to be on the wrong side of the gradient for the most part. looks like their is some disagreement between them. The 0z euro parks the vortex between hudson bay and lake superior, but this is way out in time. To me, a precursor as to why this winter was going to be rough is everytime we got closer to an event beit snow or cold, the models always backed off on it. They never show it progressing or getting better, its always been 5 days away. Some years we have had luck on our side, some years we dont, which this is following. Even the 6z gfs in the 10-15 day period isnt all that cold. Granted days 14-15 are. The previous days arent. The continuous storm tracks to our north turn the winds to the south and the bl cooks, even though the thicknesses and 850s are cold. Their isnt even any snow in that whole 15 day period lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Until we see a -NAO modeled consistently I think we're SOL. We can't even get a sniff of it really even in fantasy land. With our luck it'll show up just in time for St. Patty's day and then hang around long enough to ruin spring like it ruined winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 looks like their is some disagreement between them. The 0z euro parks the vortex between hudson bay and lake superior, but this is way out in time. To me, a precursor as to why this winter was going to be rough is everytime we got closer to an event beit snow or cold, the models always backed off on it. They never show it progressing or getting better, its always been 5 days away. Some years we have had luck on our side, some years we dont, which this is following. Even the 6z gfs in the 10-15 day period isnt all that cold. Granted days 14-15 are. The previous days arent. The continuous storm tracks to our north turn the winds to the south and the bl cooks, even though the thicknesses and 850s are cold. Their isnt even any snow in that whole 15 day period lolz You can see why with the nao verification vs progs. It (the NAO) has been verifying nearly at the most positive end of the ensemble members. I've seen this model bias switch in season, but if or until it does, you really need a strong -epo/+pna to deliver the goods. This is a tournament season we are playing without a putter in the bag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2012 Author Share Posted January 10, 2012 You can see why with the nao verification vs progs. It (the NAO) has been verifying nearly at the most positive end of the ensemble members. I've seen this model bias switch in season, but if or until it does, you really need a strong -epo/+pna to deliver the goods. This is a tournament season we are playing without a putter in the bag. sometimes that helps my game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2012 Author Share Posted January 10, 2012 I'm skeptical that we even see more than 3-4 days out of the next 14 that are below normal. With the way the vortex drops down in W Canada, we're going to be on the wrong side of the gradient for the most part. ala 12z gfs, after the first big cold its pretty meh because of the placement of the pv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 ala 12z gfs, after the first big cold its pretty meh because of the placement of the pv Yeah looks like january is in big trouble....kudos to adam with his forecast...pattern change just seems to have gone away on the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Yeah looks like january is in big trouble....kudos to adam with his forecast...pattern change just seems to have gone away on the models It doesn't mean this will go according to plan, but you can see the impending/ongoing problem(s), the mjo, chances are will be in the circle of death and if anything emerge on the warm phase side based ont the EC which is the model with the most skill with MJO forcing. The stratospheric warming based on the ep vectors fluxing big time toward the equator seems to be not working downward, the 10 and 30mb winds while weakened, have not switched and temps have cooled again. The -epo has brought cold air into canada, but with the nao remaining positive, can exit stage right. Coupled with the ensemble retrogression of the pv and siberian ridge, permits the pacific fire hose to open again. I had January as the coldest month relative to normal in my analogs I have nothing to personally gain by these shortening bursts of cold air other than more golfing rounds. Adam, Yeah I got my signs all messed up. I was applying the reverse wind signs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 As far as the winter goes, while the Fat Lady might not be singing, she is certainly warming up. (No pun intended) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Look at the moisture feed on this bad boy. Models may have to update their QPF totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 This is starting to feel like Winter 2001 all over. Heck at least we had 4 inches of snow on Jan 19th that winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Don't be sad about the 12Z GFS... trust me it's easily the coldest run in a long time when extrapolated... there's more to the atmosphere than the bottom 90% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2012 Author Share Posted January 10, 2012 Don't be sad about the 12Z GFS... trust me it's easily the coldest run in a long time when extrapolated... there's more to the atmosphere than the bottom 90% im over winter, this just isnt our year it was clear a month ago...im game for warmth, baseball, beach, and bikinis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 im over winter, this just isnt our year it was clear a month ago...im game for warmth, baseball, beach, and bikinis I just need one sled-worthy event for my little girl, and then I'm totally with you...Hopefully we get all this 'not our year' crap (Phillies, Eagles, Weenies) out of our system, and come back next year ready to play ball and/or make with the frozen precip... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 im over winter, this just isnt our year it was clear a month ago...im game for warmth, baseball, beach, and bikinis this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 While I lol'd, not appropriate for this thread, Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 While I lol'd, not appropriate for this thread, Feb. This winter has clearly gotten to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 <p>12Z GFS... WOW!!! </p> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 18z GFS has an October-like pattern. Torch on the east coast with a tropical system approaching way out in fantasy land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 No comments on the 0z or 6z suite of models on 1/11?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 No comments on the 0z or 6z suite of models on 1/11?! If you are referring to the moderate snowstorm that the EC depicts, then I would say lets watch it at least show that solution or something similar several times before you get excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2012 Author Share Posted January 11, 2012 No comments on the 0z or 6z suite of models on 1/11?! the euro in the long range has been changing every run... the clipper the gfs has the euro has nothing...both models in the long range dictate a gradient like pattern which looks like we may be on the wrong side of...it all depends where that pv drops, if its western canada kiss any snow chances good bye. The return of the ak vortex without any blocking that most models show us reverting back to is basically the kiss of death for us in terms of cold and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 If you are referring to the moderate snowstorm that the EC depicts, then I would say lets watch it at least show that solution or something similar several times before you get excited. he's a fan of the CAD event at hour 162 on the 6z GFS. IMO, we gotta get through this storm before we get some consistency regarding late next week. Not getting my hopes up yet...even the pattern "change" that some hyped up really isn't that much of a shift...we were colder last week than we will be this Friday-Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 It keeps getting worse and worse for snow lovers the last 1/3 of January. The Euro ensemble is starting to show the same blowtorch the weeklies were showing in that timeframe. It's rare to see +6-8C anomalies at the T+360 prog and they are showing up for a large portion of the country this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Rainshadow better get those tee times earlier. OUCH! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Rainshadow better get those tee times earlier. OUCH! Yikes That is not good for snow business. Working on the golf game sounds about right! You know its becoming a bit frustrating taking the crew to the cabin each weekend for ski racing and missing out on stellar winter beach days at home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 JB tweet Sunday-Tuesday Cold shot in the NE - 0 in Boston and single digits in NYC monday morning....direct discharge of arctic air will beat models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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