famartin Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 funny how the gfs shows a double low storm that gives this area tons of snow, while euro has nothing Eh, the models have occasionally been throwing a bone to you guys, only to yank back on the string almost immediately. I would tend to think this is another one of those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soadforecaster Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Eh, the models have occasionally been throwing a bone to you guys, only to yank back on the string almost immediately. I would tend to think this is another one of those. i havent seen the models this bad in a while, they can not get any thing right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 i havent seen the models this bad in a while, they can not get any thing right I don't think they've been especially bad as far as skill goes (though I don't have the stats to back that up so I could be wrong). However, as far as throwing you guys some hope, they've definitely been pretty minimal. Of course, so far that's been "correct". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blinkers88 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 DT is going nuts on facebook... yall dont seem excited at all.. what gives? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 DT is going nuts on facebook... yall dont seem excited at all.. what gives? i think adamtorch has brain washed us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 DT is going nuts on facebook... yall dont seem excited at all.. what gives? Flat zonal flow at 240 hrs on the 12Z Euro is not exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 i think adamtorch has brain washed us I think there is reason to pay attention if you are in the LV/Poconos/N NJ. Not so much for PHL/S NJ/DE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 New Euro weeklies are torchy Days 1-7, near normal D8-14 with a gradient pattern setting up, massive, epic torch D15-21, and above normal D22-28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 New Euro weeklies... But i thought the weeklies are not very accurate past 10 to 14 days?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 But i thought the weeklies are not very accurate past 10 to 14 days?. They're another piece of guidance to use. I certainly don't base my entire medium range forecast on them, but they show skill at MR prediction - mainly because they skill with the MJO out to a month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 They're another piece of guidance to use. I certainly don't base my entire medium range forecast on them, but they show skill at MR prediction - mainly because they skill with the MJO out to a month. So it is showing the MJO stuck in phase 6 for the next month?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 So it is showing the MJO stuck in phase 6 for the next month?. I'm going to move these posts to medium-long range thread, since this is more a humor thread. I don't have the MJO forecasts from it yet, only H5, T85, and 2m temps, but they are all showing a blowtorch. The MJO forecasts usually don't update until tomorrow morning on the NCEP site. If I had to guess, though, I'd bet the MJO is in P5/P6 in Week 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I'm going to move these posts to medium-long range thread, since this is more a humor thread. I don't have the MJO forecasts from it yet, only H5, T85, and 2m temps, but they are all showing a blowtorch. The MJO forecasts usually don't update until tomorrow morning on the NCEP site. If I had to guess, though, I'd bet the MJO is in P5/P6 in Week 3. Are they generally very accurate?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Are they generally very accurate?. Very accurate? I don't know what your measure is. Do they, on average, beat climatology? Yes. Is their output written in stone? Of course not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Very accurate? I don't know what your measure is. Do they, on average, beat climatology? Yes. Is their output written in stone? Of course not. I of course know they are not written in stone, that is what i meant do they beat climatology. So you are not excited like many others seem to be for the upcoming pattern. Thanks for your info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Very accurate? I don't know what your measure is. Do they, on average, beat climatology? Yes. Is their output written in stone? Of course not. Is this the torch side of you or actually what they are saying because every time in the past i transcribe say what Brett anderson interpretation is I am told that it is not accurate...so are they actually that warm outside one week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I of course know they are not written in stone, that is what i meant do they beat climatology. So you are not excited like many others seem to be for the upcoming pattern. Thanks for your info. I've been saying Jan 13-18 or so should be cold here, then the next shot of cold would be around Feb 1. If you believe the weeklies, that might even be wrong. I'm basing Feb 1 on what could in the stratosphere, but the MJO could very well overwhelm anything going on the polar regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I've been saying Jan 13-18 or so should be cold here, then the next shot of cold would be around Feb 1. If you believe the weeklies, that might even be wrong. I'm basing Feb 1 on what could in the stratosphere, but the MJO could very well overwhelm anything going on the polar regions. Would the weeklies pick up on the strat warming downwelling or not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Is this the torch side of you or actually what they are saying because every time in the past i transcribe say what Brett anderson interpretation is I am told that it is not accurate...so are they actually that warm outside one week? For PHL proper: Week 1 +2 Week 2 0 Week 3 +5 Week 4 +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Would the weeklies pick up on the strat warming downwelling or not? I honestly don't know the answer to that question. It's a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere model (it's actually the Euro ensemble coupled to a dynamic ocean), but I don't know how much skill, if any, the Euro ensemble has at forecasting SSWs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I've been saying Jan 13-18 or so should be cold here, then the next shot of cold would be around Feb 1. If you believe the weeklies, that might even be wrong. I'm basing Feb 1 on what could in the stratosphere, but the MJO could very well overwhelm anything going on the polar regions. So basically if we do not get that fantasy storm early next week we are SOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 So basically if we do not get that fantasy storm early next week we are SOL. Not necessarily. Climo is still favorable here for an overrunning type event in the middle of an otherwise crappy pattern. Look what happened in DC today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 For PHL proper: Week 1 +2 Week 2 0 Week 3 +5 Week 4 +1 Sorry if this is a dumb question Adam but when does week one start? Is week one from today through next Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Is week one from today through next Monday? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Yes. So the epic torch week would be right around the week when we usually have the January thaw? The blooming flowers and green grass we have now will appreciate it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Not necessarily. Climo is still favorable here for an overrunning type event in the middle of an otherwise crappy pattern. Look what happened in DC today. Yea but in the DC area very few places got it to stick on the streets it was mainly on grassy areas. I have to get real desperate to hope for that kind of storm. I hope i do not come to that this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 For PHL proper: Week 1 +2 Week 2 0 Week 3 +5 Week 4 +1 To clarify did these just come out today or this past thursday? I am assuming today? They come out twice a week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I am assuming today? They come out twice a week? Correct on both accounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Man, the +5 in the last full week of January is really going to sting if it verifies. They'll be finding the weenie corpses for weeks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 New Euro weeklies are torchy Days 1-7, near normal D8-14 with a gradient pattern setting up, massive, epic torch D15-21, and above normal D22-28 Sounds like the next 3 weeks are going to be "fun fun" for you guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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