Rainshadow Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 well, both if that's reasonable. I heard one met's take on this: High solar activity can cause +nao, and that lower solar activity would mean a shift to -nao. Is this is strong sign? In your opinion, is this happening now? I honestly don't know. I'm sure there is some solar influence. These NAO flips that average about 30 years seem to coincide with the duration of three solar cycles. I was just asking you for a clarification for anyone that is better at space weather than me (which is probably 99% of everyone out there). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 I honestly don't know. I'm sure there is some solar influence. These NAO flips that average about 30 years seem to coincide with the duration of three solar cycles. I was just asking you for a clarification for anyone that is better at space weather than me (which is probably 99% of everyone out there). Thanks Tony for your responses. I guess it's an interesting theory, and it gets my attention when I hear things like this. I am at best a novice pertaining to meteorology, but I try to learn more about these things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Here is that NAEFS verification for the week ending 1/6. Outlooked: Verification: This is as close as I can generate a map. BTW on Dec 30, PHL's departure from normal was +10. I know the NAEFS has gone back to outlook us milder in week 2 again last night. There is going to be a lot of cold air that is going to come into Canada, I guess it will depend on the location of that Siberian Ridge, as to our "angle of the cold". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 8, 2012 Author Share Posted January 8, 2012 fwiw, the euro continues to show a 1-2 event mon night with the system passing to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Tom, Per JB along your lines "Well now this would be neat. 60s Saturday, snow on Monday. Check this 48 hour euro out as it take a piece of the southwest trough out and phases it in time for some snow in the mid atlantic states tomorrow" fwiw, the euro continues to show a 1-2 event mon night with the system passing to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 fwiw, the euro continues to show a 1-2 event mon night with the system passing to our south. If the 12z GFS shows it I'm in on this... NAM did trend a bit north from 0z to 12z...certainly can't rule it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 If the 12z GFS shows it I'm in on this... NAM did trend a bit north from 0z to 12z...certainly can't rule it out. The 00z GFS and NAM were really the only two models that didn't have much precip getting into the CWA, most of the others backed it much farther. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 8, 2012 Author Share Posted January 8, 2012 If the 12z GFS shows it I'm in on this... NAM did trend a bit north from 0z to 12z...certainly can't rule it out. 12z gfs is now trending towards the euro to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 12z gfs is now trending towards the euro to Tombo, Well we're going to "Golf For It" this afternoon, Ramblewood again white/blue about 6200 yds, we're going to scramble because my neck and back are bothering me because of the wood we got yesterday. I shoot an 88 and my wife a 92 by ourselves last time we played there. So post some scores/wx in the golf thread and I'll post our "results" later. See what the Ukie does with this run, its been always fairly sane with its qpf up close and this 36hr magic time about matches the Euro 12z run on Friday in late October. Looks cold next weekend, doubt we'll be golfing then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 don't know if anyone saw or posted this yet but DT is pretty excited about a flip................ http://www.wxrisk.com/2012/01/historic-pattern-flip-coming/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 8, 2012 Author Share Posted January 8, 2012 12z ggem going with 1-2 for the region...best chance for accum if temps support it is south and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 12z gfs is now trending towards the euro to Not really... http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVNEAST_12z/tr6f36.php (look at the far right and 3rd from right...no real huge change between 0z and 12z) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 8, 2012 Author Share Posted January 8, 2012 i was comparing 12z to 6z which brought precip further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Do we really want to talk about the Monday threat here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 euro is a touch weaker with the low for Monday...gets the uber light QPF into SE PA but the steadiest precip stays south of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 8, 2012 Author Share Posted January 8, 2012 Do we really want to talk about the Monday threat here? make a thread on it...deff a shot of atleast some snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 8, 2012 Author Share Posted January 8, 2012 euro is a touch weaker with the low for Monday...gets the uber light QPF into SE PA but the steadier precip stays south of the city. yep. .1 qpf just south of the city...deff a shot though of some lgt snow later tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 make a thread on it...deff a shot of atleast some snow... Done, go play there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 12z Euro ensembles with a massive area of positive height anomalies developing over western Greenland/eastern Canada past day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Serious cold air building up on our side of the world at 240 on the 12Z euro ensembles, Most models have been trending colder towards this solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 8, 2012 Author Share Posted January 8, 2012 Serious cold air building up on our side of the world at 240 on the 12Z euro ensembles, Most models have been trending colder towards this solution. displace that pv over the hudson bay and its game on for some serious cold, but that could also be a supressive pattern to... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Wanted to pop these up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Would be a better comparison if they were the same runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I hope everyone saw Wes' post yesterday in the MA forum. I don't have much to add there. It looks like we'll get the wave breaking associated with the current +AAM state later this week (with snow possible to the north - and the LV/Poconos may still have something to watch) and we'll see the PV shift toward Hudson Bay. However, medium range prospects for a -NAO don't appear in the cards and by Jan 20, we see the Pacific jet undercutting the -EPO and cross polar flow. So even though we'll finally get some cold air into Canada, there doesn't appear to be a mechanism to usher it all the way into our area. We'll certainly increased chances of transient cold shots, but I don't see much change for our snow prospects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I hope everyone saw Wes' post yesterday in the MA forum. http://www.americanw...ost__p__1255337 I don't have much to add there. It looks like we'll get the wave breaking associated with the current +AAM state later this week (with snow possible to the north - and the LV/Poconos may still have something to watch) and we'll see the PV shift toward Hudson Bay. However, medium range prospects for a -NAO don't appear in the cards and by Jan 20, we see the Pacific jet undercutting the -EPO and cross polar flow. So even though we'll finally get some cold air into Canada, there doesn't appear to be a mechanism to usher it all the way into our area. We'll certainly increased chances of transient cold shots, but I don't see much change for our snow prospects. PAC flow and heights rising just to our east, are definitely not a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 That's the "normal progression," if there is such a thing. You usually can't sustain high +AAM very long due to baroclinic instability, especially in Nina. Looks like it's heading there. Good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I hope everyone saw Wes' post yesterday in the MA forum. http://www.americanw...ost__p__1255337 I don't have much to add there. It looks like we'll get the wave breaking associated with the current +AAM state later this week (with snow possible to the north - and the LV/Poconos may still have something to watch) and we'll see the PV shift toward Hudson Bay. However, medium range prospects for a -NAO don't appear in the cards and by Jan 20, we see the Pacific jet undercutting the -EPO and cross polar flow. So even though we'll finally get some cold air into Canada, there doesn't appear to be a mechanism to usher it all the way into our area. We'll certainly increased chances of transient cold shots, but I don't see much change for our snow prospects. Wes is pretty dosh garn good. When I grow up, I want to be like Wes. I don't have much to add other than arrivals are often outlooked too fast, then breakdowns are sometimes also. There has been a definite negative bias in the NAO outlook with the GFS ensembles, so I'd be pretty skeptical of anything sustained occurring there until we get pretty close to initialization time. I'm going back to work this afternoon and look at my glaam binder again, I saw the Wheeler like diagram in HM's thread, I was thinking more meridional outside of the tropics. If that doesn't make much sense either, then I have to go re-read the binder again, its been a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 The models are now putting a pocket of colder air ahead of the rain on Wednesday night. North of I-78 could see some accumulations before the changeover, according to the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 The models are now putting a pocket of colder air ahead of the rain on Wednesday night. North of I-78 could see some accumulations before the changeover, according to the 12z GFS. You should make a new thread for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soadforecaster Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 funny how the gfs shows a double low storm that gives this area tons of snow, while euro has nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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