am19psu Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 what no blow torch pic with your reply? I'm feeling ever more confident that February will at least be cooler compared to normal than Dec/Jan were/are. Hope? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I'm feeling ever more confident that February will at least be cooler compared to normal than Dec/Jan were/are. Hope? http://www.homedepot...tts-232401.html So instead of the torch you can post this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Hopefully people realize that it will take some time to get out of this awful pattern we have been stuck in since November. It won't happen overnight. And people can't keep swinging from model run to model run looking for the big blizzard or the attack of the Arctic. Reading the board this afternoon i noticed people worrying about this afternoons run of the Euro and how it looked to back off on the upcoming pattern change. Despite the hype by the usual pro mets on facebook and the internet, the change isn't going to happen overnight. We might take a step forward and two steps back for awhile. Rarely does a winter turn on a dime, especially one as bad as this one. And there is no guarantee it will ever switch to a cold and snowy scenario. Two guarantees in life, death and taxes, that's it. I have believed for sometime the best part of winter was coming the last two weeks in January through February. I sent a PM to a member here giving him my prediction about that period a month ago. I believe , while our patience is being tested, we will receive some good winter weather in the not to distant future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 This looks like it will be delayed a few days, but with the way the AAM is spiking right now, I wouldn't be surprised to see a decent storm somewhere in the East (not necessarily a coastal) right around the 15th. This is pretty close on the 12z Euro. It might not materialize, but the tropical signals and such are there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 12z NAEFS second run in a row with near normal week 2 temps. The GWO is closer to nino mode than nina mode lately as the flow has become globally more meridional. Overall it still looks like the Pacific is still outlooked to be more disruptive and while the NAO outlooks have verifued more positive, the trend toward neutrality has been maintained. Also credit to ssw or not, the positive ao should keep the pv on our side of the globe, so overall the trend is still looking up (or is that down?). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I'm feeling ever more confident that February will at least be cooler compared to normal than Dec/Jan were/are. Hope? I feel like at least the 1st half of Feb will be cooler than normal, if we can get some sort of a -NAO. We'll have to see how the pattern progresses and if we can get the warming from above to propagate down. I suppose you can get away with more -EPO or -AO ridging in the Poles, but I think you guys want the -NAO. The PNA may try to rise the se ridge again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Lots of global warming talk on the evening network news tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 From JBs post today.... "Though when we total it up, it wont be as cold or snowy nationally as the past two years, this may be the most two faced of the bunch, and well worth the time to look at all that was going on. For the record, this does not mean above normal snowfall in the I-95 corridor. The great flip of 07 had the inland Jet Blue storm ( it sleeted in NYC and they did not have an above normal snow winter) but it does mean that from to Portland Oregon to Portland Maine, including Port Huron and perhaps even the ports of Houston and New Orleans, Winter next week will just begin to fight, next 7 days mild, following 7 wild, following 7, cold that may be vile, and stay a while" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 12z NAEFS second run in a row with near normal week 2 temps. The GWO is closer to nino mode than nina mode lately as the flow has become globally more meridional. Overall it still looks like the Pacific is still outlooked to be more disruptive and while the NAO outlooks have verifued more positive, the trend toward neutrality has been maintained. Also credit to ssw or not, the positive ao should keep the pv on our side of the globe, so overall the trend is still looking up (or is that down?). You mean more zonal right? +AAM = stronger westerlies. Overall, it still looks torchy through Jan 13 or so. I feel like at least the 1st half of Feb will be cooler than normal, if we can get some sort of a -NAO. We'll have to see how the pattern progresses and if we can get the warming from above to propagate down. I suppose you can get away with more -EPO or -AO ridging in the Poles, but I think you guys want the -NAO. The PNA may try to rise the se ridge again. Yeah, I'm expecting a -NAO to pop some time around Feb 1. I have no idea whether it gets sustained through the month, but it looks like a good start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 You mean more zonal right? +AAM = stronger westerlies. Overall, it still looks torchy through Jan 13 or so. Yeah, I'm expecting a -NAO to pop some time around Feb 1. I have no idea whether it gets sustained through the month, but it looks like a good start. Adam, what were those signals that you were looking at, hinting at a storm around the 15th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Adam, what were those signals that you were looking at, hinting at a storm around the 15th? A couple things. The MJO isn't going to fully pop into P8, but there should be some remnant off equatorial convection near the dateline, which ought to allow a temporary +PNA ridge. You've got the GWO showing strong +AAM and +d(AAM)/dt anomalies right now, which, in a normal progression over to G8, would lead to wave breaking event somewhere in the eastern half of the US around that time period. You've also got some warm anomalies in the stratosphere showing up over Hudson Bay, which means the polar vortex should be displaced toward that region, setting up a generally positive LW pattern with a cold air source - at least as positive as you can get without any blocking over the Atlantic. The Euro ensemble at T+192 shows all of those features, but it remains to be seen whether we'll get an actual storm out of it or not. Guidance right now is keeping the surface low well offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 A couple things. The MJO isn't going to fully pop into P8, but there should be some remnant off equatorial convection near the dateline, which ought to allow a temporary +PNA ridge. You've got the GWO showing strong +AAM and +d(AAM)/dt anomalies right now, which, in a normal progression over to G8, would lead to wave breaking event somewhere in the eastern half of the US around that time period. You've also got some warm anomalies in the stratosphere showing up over Hudson Bay, which means the polar vortex should be displaced toward that region, setting up a generally positive LW pattern with a cold air source - at least as positive as you can get without any blocking over the Atlantic. The Euro ensemble at T+192 shows all of those features, but it remains to be seen whether we'll get an actual storm out of it or not. Guidance right now is keeping the surface low well offshore. Ok gotcha. You think we'll head over the G8 from the G5 where we are in the GWO phase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Ok gotcha. You think we'll head over the G8 from the G5 where we are in the GWO phase? That's the "normal progression," if there is such a thing. You usually can't sustain high +AAM very long due to baroclinic instability, especially in Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 12z GFS shows no sign of losing that disgusting PV over NE Canada/Greenland.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_t70_nh_f216.gif 70hpa strat temps @216hrs... Compared to 24 hrs from now http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_t70_nh_f24.gif You can see the best strat warming temps don't reach central/ eastern Canada till about day 10-14... So while I think we'll be bored till the 20th or so, I'm liking what I'm seeing. Not completely writing off feb, but I'm liking to start our chances come February. Then again, this is all dependent on the actual strength of the warming and whether or not it propagates downward to the 500mb level. I believe Adam had mentioned about the qbo going negative, which bodes well in aiding down-welling these strat temps to the troposphere. Still have work to do to get where we want. Nonetheless, it's a good start. I believe the models will keep delaying a true pattern change till later jan rather than the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 That's the "normal progression," if there is such a thing. You usually can't sustain high +AAM very long due to baroclinic instability, especially in Nina. I'll tell ya, the warming at 50mb on the EC ensembles gets more and more impressive. Lets get some MT going to work this down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I'll tell ya, the warming at 50mb on the EC ensembles gets more and more impressive. Lets get some MT going to work this down. I thought fluxing toward the equator was not a good sign for into tropospheric propagation, although I'm sure there are exceptions in either direction. Regardless it looks as though there are other factors in hand that are trending us colder, maybe a semantical discussion as to what gets credit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 You mean more zonal right? +AAM = stronger westerlies. Overall, it still looks torchy through Jan 13 or so. Yeah, I'm expecting a -NAO to pop some time around Feb 1. I have no idea whether it gets sustained through the month, but it looks like a good start. I don't have the paper at home, I may be getting my signs wrong, wouldn't be the last time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I think we are sort of in between warmings. Those vectors aren't good for propagating, that's true..but I think we have seen some propagation regardless. The second wave seems pretty strong..maybe we see results in 2-3 weeks? It's definitely not my field of expertise, but just what I noticed. I never thought I would be discussing EPV vectors instead of where mesoscale banding may set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I think we are sort of in between warmings. Those vectors aren't good for propagating, that's true..but I think we have seen some propagation regardless. The second wave seems pretty strong..maybe we see results in 2-3 weeks? It's definitely not my field of expertise, but just what I noticed. I never thought I would be discussing EPV vectors instead of where mesoscale banding may set up. I was reading WES's paper this morning, it seems either way whether its from the stratosphere or another trigger, the stable vortex is near the end of its shelf life. Trust me. Its not my field of expertise either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I was reading WES's paper this morning, it seems either way whether its from the stratosphere or another trigger, the stable vortex is near the end of its shelf life. Trust me. Its not my field of expertise either. MY paper? I just posted a new CWG piece on the Mid Altantic Forum. Are you and my wife sharing stuff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 MY paper? I just posted a new CWG piece on the Mid Altantic Forum. Are you and my wife sharing stuff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 MY paper? I just posted a new CWG piece on the Mid Altantic Forum. Are you and my wife sharing stuff? Can't say that we are. But that (Baldwin and Dunkerton) article was the one I read at the doctor's office this morning. I also read Entertainment Weekly fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Can't say that we are. But that (Baldwin and Dunkerton) article was the one I read at the doctor's office this morning. I also read Entertainment Weekly fwiw. I always check out the rags at the check out counter at grocery stores. Hope all was OK at the doctors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Latest JB tweets "Cold to engulf northwest too. Portland Oregon to Portland Maine, to perhaps Port Charlotte fla, all going to taste winter Jan 13 on....operational models will have problems with strong temp gradients euro ensemble uncorks 2cnd beast in the east cold shot 16-20" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 I always check out the rags at the check out counter at grocery stores. Hope all was OK at the doctors. Wes, Yeah I do too, only way I found out the aliens were endorsing Clinton. Yup everything thankfully was fine. I don't know about sustained cold beyond the week ending January 14th, still kind of looks choppy (which is I suppose given climo better than blowtorch), maybe more north central oriented. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 what are thoughts on decreasing solar activity leading to a -nao? thanks. (apologies if this has been discussed previously) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Wes, Yeah I do too, only way I found out the aliens were endorsing Clinton. Yup everything thankfully was fine. I don't know about sustained cold beyond the week ending January 14th, still kind of looks choppy (which is I suppose given climo better than blowtorch), maybe more north central oriented. Like you I don't see sustained cold as the ridge looks to far west to deliver the goods consistently without help from a negative NAO and the latter does not appear to be in the works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 what are thoughts on decreasing solar activity leading to a -nao? thanks. (apologies if this has been discussed previously) In general as in a less active solar cycle, or what is going on now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 In general as in a less active solar cycle, or what is going on now? well, both if that's reasonable. I heard one met's take on this: High solar activity can cause +nao, and that lower solar activity would mean a shift to -nao. Is this is strong sign? In your opinion, is this happening now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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