famartin Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 It will be a battle between the SE ridge and cool air seeping eastward from the Plains. I like SNE's chances a lot better than ours, considering there isn't a lot of ambient cold to work with. Yeah, in that regard this definitely isn't 93-94. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Happy New Year, everyone. Back at the grind today. Looks like a rollercoaster pattern is shaping up for January. This quickie cold shot will be followed by warmth for about 5 days, then we get another cool shot in the Jan 10-15 timeframe, followed by a re-establishment of the SE ridge towards the end of the month. After that, it gets interesting. The polar vortex is going to be taking a few body blows over the next few weeks. When IO convection and associated Himalayan mountain torque gets going again around Jan 20, we could see a full on assault on the PV. If, and it's a big if, the Rossby waves generated by the MT land a knockout blow on the PV, we could see a SSW around Feb 1, which would lead to -AO/-NAO for most of February. I'm not forecasting that yet, but it's on the table. In the mean time, the only help we'll get from the tropics is in the IO. Don't expect the MJO to make it into 8-1-2 any time over the next month, with the Walker Circulation dominating any MJO influence near the dateline. The euro ensembles really have a nice 50mb warming developing near AK and then moving east by mid month. It's really come on pretty strong on guidance, and could be related to what you described above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 The euro ensembles really have a nice 50mb warming developing near AK and then moving east by mid month. It's really come on pretty strong on guidance, and could be related to what you described above. You can see the -U momentum flux showing up strongly here at D10 in the Euro ops. This is one of the "body blows" I was talking about. You saw what happened with the IO convection around Christmas (which is related to the current cool down in the East). I expect something similar to happen at the end of January, only with a substantially weaker PV to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 You can see the -U momentum flux showing up strongly here at D10 in the Euro ops. This is one of the "body blows" I was talking about. You saw what happened with the IO convection around Christmas (which is related to the current cool down in the East). I expect something similar to happen at the end of January, only with a substantially weaker PV to start. It's been pretty cool to watch all this unfold. Kind of a learning experience for me as far as the mtn torque processes go, but it will be great to see if all this can actually deliver the blow to Ivan Drago up there by the North Pole. Since we've had little in the way of winter threats, I've taken this time to try and understand some of the long range stuff.....I figure why not since it's so quiet..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 For the snow lovers out there: the 12Z GFS has a few storms for northern DE, southern NJ, and SEPA through hour 384, but they look to be all or mostly rain. The NCEP maps don't illustrate surface temps so I'm just looking at 850's and precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Not good news Sunshine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Wow, that's more bullish on the warmth than I would go on the 8-14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 For the snow lovers out there: the 12Z GFS has a few storms for northern DE, southern NJ, and SEPA through hour 384, but they look to be all or mostly rain. The NCEP maps don't illustrate surface temps so I'm just looking at 850's and precip. The NCEP maps have 2M temps which are more or less surface temps. Click on the link: 10m_wind_precip in the surface parameters section and you will get them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Wow, that's more bullish on the warmth than I would go on the 8-14 Seems like they've updated since that post. More reasonable look to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Looks like its trending overall better for colder weather. Maybe a breakdown in the Pacific train tracks after the middle of the month? Still disconcerting on how the models lost the wave on the front at about 96 hours again (for this weekend). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 I nearly fell asleep just watching the long range GFS and Euro loops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Bastardi's getting hyped up about a January 07 style flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Bastardi's getting hyped up about a January 07 style flip. Yeah, that twitter feed is hilarious. He just loves going after the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 his January 07 comments are so lolworthy. We were in the 70's the first half of January...the pattern the first week-10 days of this January is nowhere near that. We'll be mild later in the week but we've been inching towards a colder pattern with this week's cold shot and the one day shot we had last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blinkers88 Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 DT on facebook: *** ALERT *** 12z GFS and EURO both agree on MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE coming for Mid January . Both Models shows large scale cold air / possibly arctic air mass outbreaks by Day 9-10 over entire eastern half of the CONUS.. not 2 or 3 day shots but some serious WHAMMO!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 I honestly dont know if I buy that hard left turn that the MJO models are suggesting... but I hope they prove me wrong Its happening. Regardless this is the "coldest" I've seen the NAEFS week 2 outlook since an outlook for the last week in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 This map is rated NC-17 (except for Adam where its rated G) Apologies, I just wanted to bump this map to verify it over this weekend. (This is not the new week 2) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 some good news for anyone that purchased a new snow blower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Looks like a rollercoaster pattern is shaping up for January. This quickie cold shot will be followed by warmth for about 5 days, then we get another cool shot in the Jan 10-15 timeframe, followed by a re-establishment of the SE ridge towards the end of the month. This looks like it will be delayed a few days, but with the way the AAM is spiking right now, I wouldn't be surprised to see a decent storm somewhere in the East (not necessarily a coastal) right around the 15th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Not sure if this has been posted, but PSU has a new E-wall for hi-res models. http://www.meteo.psu...ewallhires.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Hr 165ish on the 12z GFS has a 985mb low over the Chesapeake for next week. All rain.. Soo much for deepening and "creating" it's own cold air. There is such a disconnect from the polar jet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Hr 165ish on the 12z GFS has a 985mb low over the Chesapeake for next week. All rain.. Soo much for deepening and "creating" it's own cold air. There is such a disconnect from the polar jet. Both the Euro and GFS are suggesting a soaker next week. After that it looks like cold may take over for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 After that it looks like cold may take over for a while. 5 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 5 days? I'll take it if we could get a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I'll take it if we could get a storm. Does rain storm, cold for 5 days, then SE ridge returning work for you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Does rain storm, cold for 5 days, then SE ridge returning work for you? It wouldn't surprise me, that's for sure. Nina FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Does rain storm, cold for 5 days, then SE ridge returning work for you? what no blow torch pic with your reply? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 what no blow torch pic with your reply? No it will be this one LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 No it will be this one LOL That'd be the 5 day period I was talking about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 what no blow torch pic with your reply? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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