blizzardmeiser Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Interesting. Lets hold out hope When HM speaks, I listen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Second week of January looks pretty toasty. Good grief... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 When HM speaks, I listen... Wow, someone is going to be wrong about that week. If the MJO can keeping going, I'd be more optimistic toward the middle of the month. As a clarification (I think most of you know this), the displayed week could be 0.5F warmer than normal and this chart would technically be correct. Its not a raw temperature departure from normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Fantasy storm at hour 372 on the 12z GFS today for 1/15ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Fantasy storm at hour 372 on the 12z GFS today for 1/15ish. Right in its fantasy wheelhouse. This winter is starting to get humurous in its persistent lack of even long range threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Second week of January looks pretty toasty. Congrats southern Baja. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Right in its fantasy wheelhouse. This winter is starting to get humurous in its persistent lack of even long range threats. In some ways maybe its better that way. Nothing to fret over when it fails. At least, that's what I'm starting to think out here with this ridiculous dry spell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 In some ways maybe its better that way. Nothing to fret over when it fails. At least, that's what I'm starting to think out here with this ridiculous dry spell. True. Less of a roller coaster ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 May be a model burp, but the 60Z GFS AO looks nice. \ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Happy New Year everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Happy 2012 folks. May it snow on us soon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
p626808 Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 After last year.. I'll take no snow for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 At this rate rock salt, snow shovels and blowers will be going on sale soon. The poor plow guys are not so happy either. Happy New Year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 No overtime for municipal or Padot drivers. Sales for bird seed, sleds, skis and snow tires may result as well. Happy New Year everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 well the thought of phase 7-1 mjo was extremely short lived.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 well the thought of phase 7-1 mjo was extremely short lived.. From COD into phase 4/5. Ugh. At least the EC keeps it in the COD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Denverweather Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 From COD into phase 4/5. Ugh. At least the EC keeps it in the COD. I honestly dont know if I buy that hard left turn that the MJO models are suggesting... but I hope they prove me wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 I honestly dont know if I buy that hard left turn that the MJO models are suggesting... but I hope they prove me wrong That's just the GEFS. Most of the other models want to keep it in the COD for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 That's just the GEFS. Most of the other models want to keep it in the COD for a while. Just a hunch, but I'm guessing he was referring to the hard left turn INTO the COD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Denverweather Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Just a hunch, but I'm guessing he was referring to the hard left turn INTO the COD. Yeah I was. I am probably wrong but I just dont see that hard left happening as the models say... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 From COD into phase 4/5. Ugh. At least the EC keeps it in the COD. After the 8th til March that's fine with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Hour 168 on the EC. EC does spit some minor accumulations between Philly and DC as it moves through. GFS has a more pronounced low that develops off the coast at 192 from a different wave that develops along the front farther south. GFS has this move through at 150 but south of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Looks like the euro goes from cold before any precip to warm during precip to cold after the precip departs. Just one of the many ways that this winter is cursed it seems... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Yeah I was. I am probably wrong but I just dont see that hard left happening as the models say... I'm not posting they are right this time, but It did happen a month ago, just one phase lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 I'm not posting they are right this time, but It did happen a month ago, just one phase lower. It sure did make the turn about a month ago. Phases 4 or 5 are sort of the nina attractors so such a turn isn't really that far fetched. I guess the good news is that the mjo often isn't that easy to predict so the models could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 12z euro at 216-240 connects Siberian ridge going to the PNA ridge in the long term. That would be awesome to see, but that's way down range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Also, some excitement about some warming going on in the strat thought would help flip the ao more neutral to negative by mid-late jan. We'll see how things progress and would line up well with the heigher heights building up into the artic regions. This could be the start of something.. or it could just be another tease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Happy New Year, everyone. Back at the grind today. Looks like a rollercoaster pattern is shaping up for January. This quickie cold shot will be followed by warmth for about 5 days, then we get another cool shot in the Jan 10-15 timeframe, followed by a re-establishment of the SE ridge towards the end of the month. After that, it gets interesting. The polar vortex is going to be taking a few body blows over the next few weeks. When IO convection and associated Himalayan mountain torque gets going again around Jan 20, we could see a full on assault on the PV. If, and it's a big if, the Rossby waves generated by the MT land a knockout blow on the PV, we could see a SSW around Feb 1, which would lead to -AO/-NAO for most of February. I'm not forecasting that yet, but it's on the table. In the mean time, the only help we'll get from the tropics is in the IO. Don't expect the MJO to make it into 8-1-2 any time over the next month, with the Walker Circulation dominating any MJO influence near the dateline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 3, 2012 Author Share Posted January 3, 2012 Happy New Year, everyone. Back at the grind today. Looks like a rollercoaster pattern is shaping up for January. This quickie cold shot will be followed by warmth for about 5 days, then we get another cool shot in the Jan 10-15 timeframe, followed by a re-establishment of the SE ridge towards the end of the month. After that, it gets interesting. The polar vortex is going to be taking a few body blows over the next few weeks. When IO convection and associated Himalayan mountain torque gets going again around Jan 20, we could see a full on assault on the PV. If, and it's a big if, the Rossby waves generated by the MT land a knockout blow on the PV, we could see a SSW around Feb 1, which would lead to -AO/-NAO for most of February. I'm not forecasting that yet, but it's on the table. In the mean time, the only help we'll get from the tropics is in the IO. Don't expect the MJO to make it into 8-1-2 any time over the next month, with the Walker Circulation dominating any MJO influence near the dateline. what about the -epo that is forecasted to develop. That could bring some chances of wintry weather to some part of the region if that gradient pattern set up, ala 93-94 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 what about the -epo that is forecasted to develop. That could bring some chances of wintry weather to some part of the region if that gradient pattern set up, ala 93-94 It will be a battle between the SE ridge and cool air seeping eastward from the Plains. I like SNE's chances a lot better than ours, considering there isn't a lot of ambient cold to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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