tombo82685 Posted December 29, 2011 Author Share Posted December 29, 2011 some of gfs ens members have the late week storm, throwing some precip up this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 some of gfs ens members have the late week storm, throwing some precip up this way Some......1/3, 1/4, half? havent had time to look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 29, 2011 Author Share Posted December 29, 2011 Some......1/3, 1/4, half? havent had time to look i just went off sv, its hard to tell. Once some of them come out on e wall i will post them... the ggem looks interesting next tuesday. Not sure how much or if any of that precip is snow. also develops a miller b later in the week, but affects primarily nyc on north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 29, 2011 Author Share Posted December 29, 2011 Some......1/3, 1/4, half? havent had time to look here are some of the gefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 29, 2011 Author Share Posted December 29, 2011 looking at the gem prcp type maps, looks like that is rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Does anyone think we could see some decent squalls with the Arctic front next week? I would take a nice coating of snow, over brown ground . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 29, 2011 Author Share Posted December 29, 2011 Does anyone think we could see some decent squalls with the Arctic front next week? I would take a nice coating of snow, over brown ground . tuesday would be the best shot imho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 FWIW, the EC ensembles for the past couple of runs show trough west, ridge east after day 12 (getting towards mid Jan). The pattern looks to be cold Mon-Thu AM, moderating into a mild weekend (1/7-1/8). Mild overall with a variably cool a couple of days (maybe) most of week of 1/9 although 0z GFS wants to send a cold shot in Jan 13-14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 FWIW, the EC ensembles for the past couple of runs show trough west, ridge east after day 12 (getting towards mid Jan). The pattern looks to be cold Mon-Thu AM, moderating into a mild weekend (1/7-1/8). Mild overall with a variably cool a couple of days (maybe) most of week of 1/9 although 0z GFS wants to send a cold shot in Jan 13-14. This would be consistent with its MJO projections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Joe Bastardi Arctic attack next week in the east. Snow squalls to bury snow belts into WVA! CLipper next week could bring snows DC to NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 30, 2011 Author Share Posted December 30, 2011 im still shoveling out from his last snow prediction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 im still shoveling out from his last snow prediction At least Thunder Road didn't have to eat a hat! (See p. 20). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 At least Thunder Road didn't have to eat a hat! (See p. 20). Oh yeah, I forgot about that. Yeah when has a clipper ever snowed on DC and NYC at the same time anyway? I mean sure it can become a Miller B, but just a clipper itself? I don't think so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 im still shoveling out from his last snow prediction Actually he's no worse than other forecasters this winter. He has his strong points too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Actually he's no worse than other forecasters this winter. He has his strong points too. LOL this is like saying a squirrel finds a nut every now and again.....in weather you cant strike out, because there is always another chance for something...........His Record speaks for itself, a real blow hard that tries to hype everything to bring attention to himself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
540line Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 With J.B you take the good with the bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 But mostly the bad!! That PV just does not want to die or move from the davis straights. It's killing out snow chances. Cold? yea, at times, but its gonna prevent any blocking from keeping anything sustained. BUckle up, this is gonna be a long slow ride till our next snow oppurtunity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 That PV just does not want to die or move from the davis straights. It's killing out snow chances. Cold? yea, at times, but its gonna prevent any blocking from keeping anything sustained. BUckle up, this is gonna be a long slow ride till our next snow oppurtunity. This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 31, 2011 Author Share Posted December 31, 2011 This. clippers ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Actually he's no worse than other forecasters this winter. He has his strong points too. If you are talking about the long range, then I might buy this. Not as far as the shorter term goes, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 If you are talking about the long range, then I might buy this. Not as far as the shorter term goes, however. Agreed. He is an awful short range forecaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Looking through the past AO monthly averages on CPC's site, there has never been a November with an average AO above 1 followed by a December with an average AO above 1. So what we witnessed this year is pretty unusual to be sure. This might not happen, but just looking at episodes with a December average AO above 1 followed by a January average AO above 1, we get the following winters: 1972-73 1988-89 1992-93 1999-00 2006-07 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 let the cool down begin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Looking through the past AO monthly averages on CPC's site, there has never been a November with an average AO above 1 followed by a December with an average AO above 1. So what we witnessed this year is pretty unusual to be sure. This might not happen, but just looking at episodes with a December average AO above 1 followed by a January average AO above 1, we get the following winters: 1972-73 1988-89 1992-93 1999-00 2006-07 We did go through the flip of this into most of last winter. January 2011 culminated a record breaking 16 consecutive months in which the NAO was negative, so the rubber band did snap back big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 let the cool down begin Doesn't look to cool! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 In honor of the WOTY being awarded today, the 12Z GFS run looks pretty decent other than a few warm shots in the longer term. It shows a gradient pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 In honor of the WOTY being awarded today, the 12Z GFS run looks pretty decent other than a few warm shots in the longer term. It shows a gradient pattern. It has been kind of showing that for a few runs now. Of course to cash in we have to be on the right side of the boundary.I'm encouraged by HM's post in the general thread. I don't believe this month will be as horrible as some think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 When HM speaks, I listen... Happy New Year Ji. You ready for some snow? Post New Years cold blast...check Pattern change Jan 8th (Jan 10-15 snowstorm?) or so? I am liking the new 00z runs; let's hope it continues. Torch fail .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Second week of January looks pretty toasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Agreed. One of the better long range forecasters but not good on the short term at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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