Medium-long range thread

[Quakertown needs snow]

surprised no one has mentioned friday, deff has possibility of some snow on the backside as modelled now with a low forming on the cold front.

today is friday and its blue skies

[Rainshadow]

surprised no one has mentioned friday, deff has possibility of some snow on the backside as modelled now with a low forming on the cold front.

I shot a second consecutive 73 at the executive course (par "68", really more like par "62") in Voorhees, how does that factor in with the snow?

At anyrate while the Pacific is going to look better, the rest not yet, maybe more up and down, but nothing great locked in yet.

I was looking at some fall comparisons wrt ssta vs last two winters. The Indian Ocean flipped vs last fall, similar to what it was the nino winter of 2009-10. The warm pool in the northern Pacific looks like its edging eastward (maybe less of a -pdo) and the Atlantic looks meh. I guess if I really knew, I wouldn't be working Thanksgiving.

[phlwx]

surprised no one has mentioned friday, deff has possibility of some snow on the backside as modelled now with a low forming on the cold front.

Meh...not really much to whoop up based on the qpf output. Might snow a bit more north of 80 but here it doesn't look like much other than passing snow showers.

[tombo82685]

Meh...not really much to whoop up based on the qpf output. Might snow a bit more north of 80 but here it doesn't look like much other than passing snow showers.

wasn't saying accumulating snow, just saying snow falling in general

[SP]

I shot a second consecutive 73 at the executive course (par "68", really more like par "62") in Voorhees, how does that factor in with the snow?

At anyrate while the Pacific is going to look better, the rest not yet, maybe more up and down, but nothing great locked in yet.

I was looking at some fall comparisons wrt ssta vs last two winters. The Indian Ocean flipped vs last fall, similar to what it was the nino winter of 2009-10. The warm pool in the northern Pacific looks like its edging eastward (maybe less of a -pdo) and the Atlantic looks meh. I guess if I really knew, I wouldn't be working Thanksgiving.

73.......nice.....Fall Rules? Leaves are swamping the greens and rough.

Winter rules might be in effect this week?

[Quakertown needs snow]

I shot a second consecutive 73 at the executive course

knock off another 10 strokes and you will be a rich man Tony

[Rainshadow]

73.......nice.....Fall Rules? Leaves are swamping the greens and rough.

Winter rules might be in effect this week?

Somehow I managed to not lose any balls yesterday; I don't know if it is coincidence or not, but I started to fan (open) my back foot more with the tee shots and they are going straighter. We found about a half dozen some poor fellow was playing Bridgestone 330 rx balls.

This Euro run is ironic for winter rules, more likely in KY, than here (SJ).

Debbie Downer and Captain Obvious Alert , with a reinvigorated MJO cycling toward warmer phases 3 and 4 and no signs of a ssw or the ao/nao forecast to go negative, even with a "better" Pacific, not much sustained cold to be had.

[Rainshadow]

knock off another 10 strokes and you will be a rich man Tony

That train left the yard a long time ago (not sure even if there was a train.).

[NaoPos]

Somehow I managed to not lose any balls yesterday; I don't know if it is coincidence or not, but I started to fan (open) my back foot more with the tee shots and they are going straighter. We found about a half dozen some poor fellow was playing Bridgestone 330 rx balls.

This Euro run is ironic for winter rules, more likely in KY, than here (SJ).

Debbie Downer and Captain Obvious Alert , with a reinvigorated MJO cycling toward warmer phases 3 and 4 and no signs of a ssw or the ao/nao forecast to go negative, even with a "better" Pacific, not much sustained cold to be had.

NOt thinking too much in the ways of sustained warmth either. Looks to be a

volatile pattern ahead. WIth the Ridge out west pumping shortwaves this way, its gonna be warm 2-3 days, cold 2-3 days...

You don't realize how lucky we had it in winter 09-10, and beginning of last year with that insane blocking that was almost non-stop.

[famartin]

You don't realize how lucky we had it in winter 09-10, and beginning of last year with that insane blocking that was almost non-stop.

I don't know who doesn't, but I certainly do

[Rainshadow]

NOt thinking too much in the ways of sustained warmth either. Looks to be a

volatile pattern ahead. WIth the Ridge out west pumping shortwaves this way, its gonna be warm 2-3 days, cold 2-3 days...

You don't realize how lucky we had it in winter 09-10, and beginning of last year with that insane blocking that was almost non-stop.

I honestly don't know how well this does elsewhere, but did pretty well around our area last winter. A good prog to follow:

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/ensemble/naefs/semaine2_combinee_e.html

Yup, I know its index numbers and there are different methodologies in measuring it, but I couldn't find another stretch in which the NAO was

"indexed" as strongly negative as it was for the 5 consecutive winter months of 2009-10 & Dec 2010 & Jan 2011.

[CoastalWx]

It's close for this area. A big ridge develops over the GOA, but it may be fighting a se ridge which means battle ground could be very close to PHL-NYC area...even perhaps SNE. NAO is gone for a while. but the good news is that it seems models are a little more robust with the ridging in the GOA during the first week of Dec.

Ridge may retro back further west which isn't a bad thing, IF it can maintain amplitude. If it doesn't, and the top of the ridge looks like the dude from Kid N' Play with the flat top....it might mean the se ridge rises once again. Eyes on the Pacific right now.

[cast4]

It's close for this area. A big ridge develops over the GOA, but it may be fighting a se ridge which means battle ground could be very close to PHL-NYC area...even perhaps SNE. NAO is gone for a while. but the good news is that it seems models are a little more robust with the ridging in the GOA during the first week of Dec.

Ridge may retro back further west which isn't a bad thing, IF it can maintain amplitude. If it doesn't, and the top of the ridge looks like the dude from Kid N' Play with the flat top....it might mean the se ridge rises once again. Eyes on the Pacific right now.

Yeah, we need to keep the low out of GOA and have the +PNA. We're not getting help from the NAO or AO.

[phlwx]

There's a decent chance that a bit of a pattern chift is 9-11 days away. 0z GFS/EC have a pretty favorable view for a colder look after 12/5.

GFS does some yo-yo on temperatures in the extended but it certainly isn't looking like days of 60's coming up after next weekend.

[Rainshadow]

There's a decent chance that a bit of a pattern chift is 9-11 days away. 0z GFS/EC have a pretty favorable view for a colder look after 12/5.

GFS does some yo-yo on temperatures in the extended but it certainly isn't looking like days of 60's coming up after next weekend.

Another interesting MJO challenge in the two weeks ahead. While it is cycling toward warmer phases, there is a big difference between the GFS and the EC's outlook the next two weeks. This is similar to what occurred in early November when the GFS was going gang busters for colder phases (the crash and burn pattern change on 11/23 by me) and the EC had the MJO go into the circle of death. Result was a rather muted colder phase pass by the MJO and an uncooperative AO/NAO. Now we have it on the other side of the phase globe with similar outlooks. The GFS outlook of yo-yoing is consistent with its MJO outlook, but maybe not necessarily right.

NAEFS week two outlooks have a +PNA look to them and have been holding with "near normal" for around us.

[SP]

Somehow I managed to not lose any balls yesterday; I don't know if it is coincidence or not, but I started to fan (open) my back foot more with the tee shots and they are going straighter. We found about a half dozen some poor fellow was playing Bridgestone 330 rx balls.

This Euro run is ironic for winter rules, more likely in KY, than here (SJ).

Debbie Downer and Captain Obvious Alert , with a reinvigorated MJO cycling toward warmer phases 3 and 4 and no signs of a ssw or the ao/nao forecast to go negative, even with a "better" Pacific, not much sustained cold to be had.

Yikes, not sure what sucks more....the forecast or leaving a 20 dollar trail of golf balls.

I will go with the golf balls.....since you likely found only 30% of the balls lost.......that would bring the total losses to about 20 balls.....and if they are all similar in brand....that would make for a $65 (with tax) minimum.

[Rainshadow]

Yikes, not sure what sucks more....the forecast or leaving a 20 dollar trail of golf balls.

I will go with the golf balls.....since you likely found only 30% of the balls lost.......that would bring the total losses to about 20 balls.....and if they are all similar in brand....that would make for a $65 (with tax) minimum.

I'd go with the lost balls too, since those actually occurred. My WAG posts about the medium range, may be just that, WAG(s).

[tombo82685]

still not to excite about this patter snow wise. Granted we will be returning to normal rather than 15 above. While the pacific will be improving the atlantic side of things is an atrocious still. It seems like a lot of the cold air intrusions are having a hard time in diving south, and are more of a glancing blow. I can see a couple events where we start as snow or ice but then go quickly over to rain. Only chance of accumulating snow in my eyes in the next 2 weeks stil resides from clipper like systems. Till we get the nao back to neutral or somewhat negative as with the ao, snowstorms in terms of noreaster are going to be hard to come by. The mjo, american models have it going to phase 4 and 5 which is warm for us, and the europena models have it going to phase 4 then into the circle of death where the tropical forcing doesn't play as much of a role. Then looking at the teleconnections, they just arent favorable outside of the pna for an i95 or coastal snowstorm...lehigh valley and deff. pocs can sneak it out in this pattern..the upcoming pattern def favors interior.

[phlwx]

Gotta give the EC credit...three straight runs of a pretty strong shot of cold at the end of the run. The core is Midwest/Lakes but we do get in on it next week. Would not surprise if we avoided 40 for a high next week (next Wednesday?) at least once IF the model is right.

The GFS has shown something similar (although the cold scoots along through the Lakes into New England) for a couple of runs as well.

[tombo82685]

till we get some sort of blocking imho, these cold shots are going to be transient...cold then a warm up with a storm then back to cold for a couple days etc... Only shots of snow would be for a storm that is timed perfectly with a trough or clipper systems

[am19psu]

till we get some sort of blocking imho, these cold shots are going to be transient...cold then a warm up with a storm then back to cold for a couple days etc... Only shots of snow would be for a storm that is timed perfectly with a trough or clipper systems

Yep. But, the GLOV stands a good shot to cash in as long as the southern stream stays active.

[NaoPos]

12z GEFS still show no signs of any high lattitude blocking.

My guess is we're gonna need a decent SSWE or big MJO phase 7-1 to get in a favorable pattern for the coastal regions of I-95.

Survey says...

[tombo82685]

fwiw, from brett anderson on accuweather...the euro weeklies through christmas show no blocking at all, with quick intrusions of cold air that lift out. Basically what we will be seeing in the next 2 weeks. The US continues to be dominated by pacific air..

[tombo82685]

12z GEFS still show no signs of any high lattitude blocking.

My guess is we're gonna need a decent SSWE or big MJO phase 7-1 to get in a favorable pattern for the coastal regions of I-95.

Survey says...

Bri, if i remember right with what adam told me. Its just like in computer models, the euro and ukmet forecast are superior to the gfs forecasts even in the mjo..... here are the euros and ukie forecast

[NaoPos]

Gfs really has that MJO pulse amplified going trough 4-5. Big difference there. I get the GFS MJO off of the CPC site.

Where are the ukie and euro ones?

[tombo82685]

Gfs really has that MJO pulse amplified going trough 4-5. Big difference there. I get the GFS MJO off of the CPC site.

Where are the ukie and euro ones?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

[Feb]

fwiw, from brett anderson on accuweather...the euro weeklies through christmas show no blocking at all, with quick intrusions of cold air that lift out. Basically what we will be seeing in the next 2 weeks. The US continues to be dominated by pacific air..

Yep. Will in the New England thread said they are horrible for this area through December 28th. However, like i said earlier in this thread, we have become a little spoiled around these parts in regards to December. But i have to admit, a warm November, followed by a warm December is not a good sign in my opinion. On top of that, Don Sutherland, over in the main forum, is talking about a dud of a winter in these parts. Time will tell i guess.

[Rainshadow]

Bri, if i remember right with what adam told me. Its just like in computer models, the euro and ukmet forecast are superior to the gfs forecasts even in the mjo..... here are the euros and ukie forecast

in a backhanded sense the gfs might in the long run be better, that looks to be too much of an impulse to not get into the Pacific. The UK and EC may be worse just having it die in the circle of death before it can carry a change across. That's probably why those Euro weeklies are showing what they got.

[am19psu]

in a backhanded sense the gfs might in the long run be better, that looks to be too much of an impulse to not get into the Pacific. The UK and EC may be worse just having it die in the circle of death before it can carry a change across. That's probably why those Euro weeklies are showing what they got.

Yup. Here are the weeklies MJO forecast:

[tombo82685]

in a backhanded sense the gfs might in the long run be better, that looks to be too much of an impulse to not get into the Pacific. The UK and EC may be worse just having it die in the circle of death before it can carry a change across. That's probably why those Euro weeklies are showing what they got.

in the long terms scheme of things how do they rank in terms of best to worse to forecasting the mjo? Or does each year dictate a new winner unlike every yr when the euro out performs the gfs.