tombo82685 Posted December 28, 2011 Author Share Posted December 28, 2011 hr 144 finally gets some what of a storm going, but its well offshore.. (insert mattinpa for optimistic approach) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 28, 2011 Author Share Posted December 28, 2011 -18 850s over the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 28, 2011 Author Share Posted December 28, 2011 atleast ray gets the warmth he so longs for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 atleast ray gets the warmth he so longs for Warm and dry is better than cold and dry... hasn't been more than a trace of precip here in about 6 weeks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 28, 2011 Author Share Posted December 28, 2011 coldest night of the year looks to be wed morning...15-20 in the city single digits northern suburbs and lehigh valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Looks like the GFS has taken the Euro to the woodshed once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 28, 2011 Author Share Posted December 28, 2011 Looks like the GFS has taken the Euro to the woodshed once again. eee...its 50/50...the euro took the gfs to school in the h5 setup, which the gfs has been slowly moving to. The gfs took the euro to school in the storm idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Model showing any hint of blocking? eee...its 50/50...the euro took the gfs to school in the h5 setup, which the gfs has been slowly moving to. The gfs took the euro to school in the storm idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 eee...its 50/50...the euro took the gfs to school in the h5 setup, which the gfs has been slowly moving to. The gfs took the euro to school in the storm idea. True. A week out, i guess we shouldn't totally write off the threat but it does seem to be on life support at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 28, 2011 Author Share Posted December 28, 2011 Model showing any hint of blocking? in terms of -ao or -nao, -epo or all of them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Yeh, meant to ask what you see over Greenland per say. in terms of -ao or -nao, -epo or all of them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 28, 2011 Author Share Posted December 28, 2011 Yeh, meant to ask what you see over Greenland per say. very pos nao...the ao starts out negative in the medium range but then goes back way positive towards the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Denverweather Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 very pos nao...the ao starts out negative in the medium range but then goes back way positive towards the end. You trust guidance that far out? as far as the long range is concerned... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 28, 2011 Author Share Posted December 28, 2011 another brutally cold airmass coming down from o canada at the end of the run, driven by another pna ridge. That would prob be the tipping pt for mpost people as it would probably rain before that front comes through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 28, 2011 Author Share Posted December 28, 2011 You trust guidance that far out? as far as the long range is concerned... well, its been correct so far. We have had maybe 3 days of -ao so far? Why not ride with it till it throws you off. Of course its not set in stone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 You trust guidance that far out? as far as the long range is concerned... I hope this one was in the running for WOTY... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Denverweather Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 I hope this one was in the running for WOTY... please... im a lurker. I comment every now and then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 meh....after the last two winters here, I am OK with what is being shown. I could use the added coin from low enegry bills these days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 just to be clear, the Euro as depicted will not be the greatest thing for the energy bills, as there is some PNA driven cold coming up, just not very snowy, and no long-term switch in the atlantic meh....after the last two winters here, I am OK with what is being shown. I could use the added coin from low enegry bills these days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Ok I'm going to take a shot at the evolution of the Euro the last 4 runs. It seems that the Pac ridge was at first modeling a huge ridge in the west which allowed a more neutral or negatively tilted trough in the eastern seaboard. As time progressed a PAC low was included that knocked down the ridge somewhat. allowing the trough to go more positive Because the trough is more positively progged the energy goes out to sea. OK take it easy just a rank AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 just to be clear, the Euro as depicted will not be the greatest thing for the energy bills, as there is some PNA driven cold coming up, just not very snowy, and no long-term switch in the atlantic Correct, but I believe it is also showing any cold spell being of the short duration type. Which is fine. I guess it would be better if those short durations included snow. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 I think the Euro/GGEM threats from yesterday are done. However, there's more potential for a Miller B event from a s/w dropping down from Canada while the trough is still carved over the eastern US. The 18z op GFS shows this just offshore, but its ensembles are more aggressive. I've found that when there are multiple pieces of energy, models normally key in on the first one and not make the second one seem like much of a threat, and I think that is happening with next week's situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 I think you guys need to stop looking at the models a week+ out hoping for a threat that appears in only one or two runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Looks cold in the long run if the GFS is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Promising.. models been hinting at a more amplified mjo heading into phase 7.. we'll see. COuld still hit the outskirts of the COD, minimizing the overall impacts of a phase 7 MJO. However, the cold in the GFS showing up has creedance here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Well, a legit significant storm threat to track would have been nice, but today's medium range guidance puts me in a philosophical mood....seems like we have seasonably cold to somewhat below normal temps for at least a time next week....as HPC noted in todays extended disco, shortwave details remain a low confidence proposition, and thats not necessarily a bad thing. Sitting here waiting for a great pattern with major sustained favorable blocking is a fools erand IMO. Whats coming up this week is what I am hoping for....that our colder shots, if however brief, are legitimately cold for the time of year, and that in the fast flow something can pop to give us an accumulating snow...I think our best shots at snow are not going to be clear cut 6"+ threats that first pop in the 5-7 day range....i think they will be vague threats that don't solidify til 72 hours out at the ealiest and will be of the 2-4 or 3-6 inch variety...I think we have a better chance at getting stretches of time where the pattern doesn't totally suck like this coming week than we do a significant stretch where the pattern is highly favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Well, a legit significant storm threat to track would have been nice, but today's medium range guidance puts me in a philosophical mood....seems like we have seasonably cold to somewhat below normal temps for at least a time next week....as HPC noted in todays extended disco, shortwave details remain a low confidence proposition, and thats not necessarily a bad thing. Sitting here waiting for a great pattern with major sustained favorable blocking is a fools erand IMO. Whats coming up this week is what I am hoping for....that our colder shots, if however brief, are legitimately cold for the time of year, and that in the fast flow something can pop to give us an accumulating snow...I think our best shots at snow are not going to be clear cut 6"+ threats that first pop in the 5-7 day range....i think they will be vague threats that don't solidify til 72 hours out at the ealiest and will be of the 2-4 or 3-6 inch variety...I think we have a better chance at getting stretches of time where the pattern doesn't totally suck like this coming week than we do a significant stretch where the pattern is highly favorable. Of late there has been the lack of the run-of-the-mill snowstorm, it seems we have segued to all or nothing at all events. If you remove last winter from the equation and the big one in 1996 pretty much what you described is the m.o. for nina type winters, we don't get the bigger ones along I95, more the nickel and dime events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 29, 2011 Author Share Posted December 29, 2011 long shot, but watch out for the 2nd shortwave that dives down mid to late next week, could spawn something off the se coast. Issue being is you need the amplification in the ridge out west for this to turn the corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 long shot, but watch out for the 2nd shortwave that dives down mid to late next week, could spawn something off the se coast. Issue being is you need the amplification in the ridge out west for this to turn the corner. Seems that way, we have plenty of time for it to trend back the coast........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 29, 2011 Author Share Posted December 29, 2011 Seems that way, we have plenty of time for it to trend back the coast........ it cant take its time getting up here either because that trof is trying to lift out also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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