tombo82685 Posted December 27, 2011 Author Share Posted December 27, 2011 Verbatim, looks like mix/rain for South Jersey, no? yea you guys go over to rain...basically everyone from a central chester county to pottstown to abe on east changes over...though everyone gets good snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 27, 2011 Author Share Posted December 27, 2011 fwiw, the ggem is a spit image of the euro, except a little colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 http://www.facebook.com/WxRisk DT on what the Euro shows on snowfall from the 12z run. THIS IS NOT HIS FORECAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 27, 2011 Author Share Posted December 27, 2011 http://www.facebook.com/WxRisk DT on what the Euro shows on snowfall from the 12z run. THIS IS NOT HIS FORECAST. i just commented on this in the mid atl forum. I dont see how the heck he came up with those numbers. Esp in the boston area, where they go over to rain and waste a good amt of qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 i just commented on this in the mid atl forum. I dont see how the heck he came up with those numbers. Esp in the boston area, where they go over to rain and waste a good amt of qpf. Not sure how either. Even down at the shore 4-8" looks pretty generous IMO. But we all know in 12 hours the slot machine will give us another spin. It is nice though to see a little consistency with the Euro and have the GGEM climb on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/meteomadness/snow-tonight-clippers-euro-out-to-lunch/59531 This pretty much locks up a storm for next week. Henry M. from accu never said the euro is out to lunch next week and he threw it in the trash. I'm heading out for bread and milk now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I guess the good is that the ridging in the west helps us get the storm, my concern is while the NAO is supposed to be headed to neutral, we have no real blocking to keep this from ending up a cutter. With that said, this could be one that would help shuffle the deck. Will be fun to see how next weeks potential plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 27, 2011 Author Share Posted December 27, 2011 I guess the good is that the ridging in the west helps us get the storm, my concern is while the NAO is supposed to be headed to neutral, we have no real blocking to keep this from ending up a cutter. With that said, this could be one that would help shuffle the deck. Will be fun to see how next weeks potential plays out. thats why its critical as to where and how strong the ridge axis occurs, further west towards seattle argues for cutter, further east would push the storm further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Indeed. 12z Euro shows a coastal monster. A foot plus for I-95 back to the western burbs. lolz The thing that worries me about the Euro solution is that it may be TOO amplified compared to reality. It was playing up the amplification on the phantom Christmas storm that the GFS quickly fizzled on as the southern energy was much weaker and held back. It was rare to see the GFS be the one to hold back the southern wave for once...but it was right in doing so (see today's weather). I think we'll see rain from this as well...and it wouldn't surprise me if it were on Monday in time for the hockey game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 27, 2011 Author Share Posted December 27, 2011 The thing that worries me about the Euro solution is that it may be TOO amplified compared to reality. It was playing up the amplification on the phantom Christmas storm that the GFS quickly fizzled on as the southern energy was much weaker and held back. It was rare to see the GFS be the one to hold back the southern wave for once...but it was right in doing so (see today's weather). I think we'll see rain from this as well...and it wouldn't surprise me if it were on Monday in time for the hockey game. The fact that it has support from other guidance and its ensembles, deff shows their is some potential. It may turn out to be all rain, but this is the best shot we have had if that ridge is modelled correctly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 http://www.facebook.com/WxRisk DT on what the Euro shows on snowfall from the 12z run. THIS IS NOT HIS FORECAST. Decent fantasy storm. I expect sunny skies 7 days from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 http://www.accuweath...-to-lunch/59531 This pretty much locks up a storm for next week. Henry M. from accu never said the euro is out to lunch next week and he threw it in the trash. I'm heading out for bread and milk now. This is good news. At least this looks like an interesting storm to track. It's nice seeing some agreement between the Euro and the GGEM. It all comes down to the placement of the PNA ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 The fact that it has support from other guidance and its ensembles, deff shows their is some potential. It may turn out to be all rain, but this is the best shot we have had if that ridge is modelled correctly The Canadian likes to overphase as well. If the GFS were showing something remotely similar I might be interested. There's a shot, yes, but I'm kinda "meh" on the potential at this point. Adam's "thread the needle" is probably the most accurate statement that can be said for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 If the Euro holds serve tonight I'm in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 The Canadian likes to overphase as well. If the GFS were showing something remotely similar I might be interested. There's a shot, yes, but I'm kinda "meh" on the potential at this point. Adam's "thread the needle" is probably the most accurate statement that can be said for this. With the NAO trending towards neutral next week, a less amped solution with the modeled ridge axis might be what we want at this juncture as it might fight the urge to cut....agreed?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 27, 2011 Author Share Posted December 27, 2011 The Canadian likes to overphase as well. If the GFS were showing something remotely similar I might be interested. There's a shot, yes, but I'm kinda "meh" on the potential at this point. Adam's "thread the needle" is probably the most accurate statement that can be said for this. that track and strength is a thread the needle for sure. If we have that deep of a trof/ridge axis, some type of storm is going to come out of the south, its just where will it track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 that track and strength is a thread the needle for sure. If we have that deep of a trof/ridge axis, some type of storm is going to come out of the south, its just where will it track. So when will you start the PBP that we all so long for?? I think I speak for many that enjoy it. Maybe 0z tonight or 12z tomorrow if the solution continues to show itself? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 The Canadian likes to overphase as well. If the GFS were showing something remotely similar I might be interested. There's a shot, yes, but I'm kinda "meh" on the potential at this point. Adam's "thread the needle" is probably the most accurate statement that can be said for this. If the GFS was showing what the Euro is showing i would be concerned,not interested. We all know it takes the GFS a few days to sniff a storm out. If it had the Euro solution right now i would say congrats Fargo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 If the GFS was showing what the Euro is showing i would be concerned,not interested. We all know it takes the GFS a few days to sniff a storm out. If it had the Euro solution right now i would say congrats Fargo. the GFS at day 7 isn't that bad...it's days 4-5 that are pretty "meh" I would not be surprised if the Euro loses the storm in a couple days, only to see the GFS pick it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 that track and strength is a thread the needle for sure. If we have that deep of a trof/ridge axis, some type of storm is going to come out of the south, its just where will it track. Keep in mind the EC overamplified the pattern for Christmas and had that Christmas storm on the models when the GFS cashed out on that idea a couple of days prior. Northern stream seems to be playing a bit stronger these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 the GFS at day 7 isn't that bad...it's days 4-5 that are pretty "meh" I would not be surprised if the Euro loses the storm in a couple days, only to see the GFS pick it up. Isn't that what happened with the storm after Christmas last year? Didn't the Euro show a huge storm 7 days out, keep it for a few runs then lose it. I also remember the Feb 2006 storm where the Euro and GGEM showed a massive snowstorm, lose it and the now famous JMA was the one to pick up on it. Has there ever been a storm that models agreed on a week out? Maybe March 1993? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Keep in mind the EC overamplified the pattern for Christmas and had that Christmas storm on the models when the GFS cashed out on that idea a couple of days prior. Northern stream seems to be playing a bit stronger these days. That's what i keep thinking also. Certainly the 18z GFS hasn't budged a bit. Nothing. Who will blink first? I say the Euro will, but that doesn't mean it won't be right in the end with some kind of storm next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 http://ggweather.com/loops/gfs_18z_slp_all.htm lol, the GFS does have the Euro solution, just a week later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 27, 2011 Author Share Posted December 27, 2011 Keep in mind the EC overamplified the pattern for Christmas and had that Christmas storm on the models when the GFS cashed out on that idea a couple of days prior. Northern stream seems to be playing a bit stronger these days. really didn't watch that event closely, since it was christmas time and had tons of stuff to do. How many runs did it have the storm? Was it like a couple runs or was it like a couple days worth? Im pretty sure the gfs had it to at some point, but it lost the idea first while the euro hung on correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 27, 2011 Author Share Posted December 27, 2011 http://ggweather.com...18z_slp_all.htm lol, the GFS does have the Euro solution, just a week later. 07/08 ice storm type storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 07/08 ice storm type storm only 56 more runs of the GFS to lock it up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 27, 2011 Author Share Posted December 27, 2011 So when will you start the PBP that we all so long for?? I think I speak for many that enjoy it. Maybe 0z tonight or 12z tomorrow if the solution continues to show itself? its gotta be within the 5 day range. Its 8 days out, not worth it yet. Plus i have to be up at 515 for work, and the euro comes out at 1250, so you can see my sleep gets severely disrupted lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Jan 1996 redux anyone? 500mb similar in this respect: http://www.njfreeway...llibarMaps.html (thanks ray) You're too late, they already did WOTY nominations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 27, 2011 Author Share Posted December 27, 2011 ill take p001 ftw alex..thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 ill take p001 ftw alex..thanks Crazy ensemble member FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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