Thunder Road Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Rob G is posting on his website of good potential for Jan 1-3 period http://www.liveweath...id=8&Itemid=179 Let's hope it turns out better than his Dec 27 period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 26, 2011 Author Share Posted December 26, 2011 Rob G is posting on his website of good potential for Jan 1-3 period http://www.liveweath...id=8&Itemid=179 still early, but i dont see that as a legit threat for the area. It looks like cold air is going to be an issue again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 im gonna have to agree with tom here. While i think the period up till about jan 5th looks like something might happen, it might be our only window for the forseeable future. Other than that, the GFS and ECM ensembles aren't really showing anything too positive(well actually they are! NAO and AO). La Nina looks to building some momentum. Whether or not it's temporary will be another thing. But it's quite clear, that La Nina is dominating this pattern. Also, some great info being passed along in the "strat warming" thread. Although, don't read the post from 430 this morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 SE ridge dominates this run of the GFS all the way to 384...doesn't look pretty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 PAC jet is screaming, LP over Greenland, SE Ridge.... they are ALL killing us. We need some high lat blocking and soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Also, some great info being passed along in the "strat warming" thread. Although, don't read the post from 430 this morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 0z Euro gets a -NAO after day 8 with a deep trough in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 The GFS has been a bit more consistent lately in the Day 7-8 timeframe with handling the cold front moving in...it doesn't develop any sort of phased bomb post-cold front for the middle of next week...just hanging onto a consistent solution of seasonable chill for 1/2-1/8. (I'm sure JB will hype up the EC solution from last night though). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 27, 2011 Author Share Posted December 27, 2011 0z euro actually has some lgt snow for northern bucks and montco on north with a clipper on the 31 that tracks just to the south of the m/d line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I'm on board with a developing, significant trough east of the Plains next week... but not as far as the Euro operational solution. I'd expect it to be less amplified than last night's run and probably cutting up the Appalachians if it winds up. With liitle blocking and no 50/50, it will be difficult for anything to run up the coast. If anyone gets a big snow out of it, I'd guess it would be the Eastern OH Valley or Interior NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 27, 2011 Author Share Posted December 27, 2011 Still don't see any really light at the tunnel. Only shot i think we have for some snow in the region is when we get that spike in the pna. If we can time it right with a storm we may get something. Other than that, same old tune goes with the teleconnections being unfavorable. Granted there will be cold air mass shots, probably coldest we have seen in a while. But this isnt a pattern where its continuous cold. Its cold for 3 or so days then warms back up. Only we shot we have is if the MJO progs from some of the models occur and push it into phase 7-8. If we go the euros route, we are screwed for another couple of weeks again. In terms of the clippers being shown, unless that polar boundry pushes south of us, we are pretty much screwed for clippers to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I'm on board with a developing, significant trough east of the Plains next week... but not as far as the Euro operational solution. I'd expect it to be less amplified than last night's run and probably cutting up the Appalachians if it winds up. With liitle blocking and no 50/50, it will be difficult for anything to run up the coast. If anyone gets a big snow out of it, I'd guess it would be the Eastern OH Valley or Interior NE. For what it's worth which isn't much, the 12z Canadian has hopped on the 0z Euro bandwagon for next week. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_12z/cmcloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 For what it's worth which isn't much, the 12z Canadian has hopped on the 0z Euro bandwagon for next week. http://www.meteo.psu...2z/cmcloop.html Yeah, the Euro may not be so outrageous after all. And while the first clipper on the GFS looks warm, we may have more success with the ones shown after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Yeah, the Euro may not be so outrageous after all. And while the first clipper on the GFS looks warm, we may have more success with the ones shown after that. HPC in their morning discussion said the very same thing. I wouldn't be surprised though if the Euro coming out soon shows anything from a nothing to a storm hitting Chicago. It's just a little change of pace seeing a nice storm show up on the models. It sure beats Adam's nuclear explosions, Don S saying Philly won't see 10" of snow this year and Wes telling us were screwed more then Lindsey Lohen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 The 12z CMC needs some work, but its getting there, especially for NW areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 HPC in their morning discussion said the very same thing. I wouldn't be surprised though if the Euro coming out soon shows anything from a nothing to a storm hitting Chicago. It's just a little change of pace seeing a nice storm show up on the models. It sure beats Adam's nuclear explosions, Don S saying Philly won't see 10" of snow this year and Wes telling us were screwed more then Lindsey Lohen. I think there is something to track here, but if we get snow from it, it will be a very lucky, thread-the-needle type scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I think there is something to track here, but if we get snow from it, it will be a very lucky, thread-the-needle type scenario. Well, my son won $500 last night on a scratch off lottery ticket so maybe my luck is changing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Euro is a beautiful hit guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Well, my son won $500 last night on a scratch off lottery ticket so maybe my luck is changing! Indeed. 12z Euro shows a coastal monster. A foot plus for I-95 back to the western burbs. lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Indeed. 12z Euro shows a coastal monster. A foot plus for I-95 back to the western burbs. lolz I might have to borrow some money from my son and run out and buy some new underwear! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I'm too afraid of the pattern we're in to get excited, but boy it's nice to see solutions like today's Euro starting to appear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I'm too afraid of the pattern we're in to get excited, but boy it's nice to see solutions like today's Euro starting to appear. Agreed but if you want a model to show this, i'm glad it's the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Although it's just a model and it's 7.5 days out, does anyone have any model pron to post? Pref accums? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poleshiftnow Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 GFS in la la land go Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I'm too afraid of the pattern we're in to get excited, but boy it's nice to see solutions like today's Euro starting to appear. Exactly my thoughts right now. If we had a -NAO to go along with our +PNA, I would be on board 100%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Euro is a beautiful hit guys. Haven't heard that (sincerely) in a long time folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I see that tombo is lurking. Now that all the sugar plum fairies have stopped dancing, does your access to Euro yield any total accumulations yet? Yeah, yeah, I realize I'm just indulging in model pron... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Verbatim, looks like mix/rain for South Jersey, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Jan 1996 redux anyone? 500mb similar in this respect: http://www.njfreeways.com/weather/1996/07-Jan-96-500MillibarMaps.html (thanks ray) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 27, 2011 Author Share Posted December 27, 2011 I see that tombo is lurking. Now that all the sugar plum fairies have stopped dancing, does your access to Euro yield any total accumulations yet? Yeah, yeah, I realize I'm just indulging in model pron... no, i dont get snowfall totals on the euro i have. Going off the 12z euro the city and burbs do change over to rain during the hgt of the storm but thats before several inches of snow before hand, then it goes back to snow as the low passes and the h5 low passes over us...its a backwards storm as dc and balt do the best out of all the cities do to the storm track. If it were all snow it would be a 10-18 inch ordeal Its deffinetely something to watch, but i wouldnt get excited yet. This all comes down to the strength and axis of the ridge out west as to where this low goes. Their isnt any other teleconnections that are in our favor. Granted the nao does creep back towards neutral, but the pna is driving this threat. This will change multiple times because of the different pieces of energy evolved in it and whern it ejects out. I will say though this is the best looking threat if you wanna say since the oct storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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