JTA66 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Doesn't it seem we get more than our fair share of springs like that? Lately, it does. Any theories? Warm AMO??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bilas Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Can I guess from the comments I have been reading here that winter is over? I could of swore I heard this was the first day of winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Can I guess from the comments I have been reading here that winter is over? I could of swore I heard this was the first day of winter? It's the 22nd day of meteorological winter. And it's not "over," but it's crippled and is facing a long and painful recovery, at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 It looks to me like Jan is going average above to much above normal. However, the MJO is going to head back to the P2-P3 areas around the New Year (it may not show up in the Phase Space plots given the lack of subsidence over the Maritime Continent), which will set off a mountain torque event off the Himalayas, leading to the possibility of some -AO conditions around Jan 10-15 or so. After that, I think we'll head back to a torch. IOW, overall the month is going to suck (or be awesome, depending on your frame of reference), but there should be a brief window around mid-month to sneak a system through, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Tonight's GFS and Euro ensembles show a +PNA and east coast trough in the long-range so the pattern isn't a total disaster. It's probably gonna produce a lot of weak systems passing by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 adam, you are hooked on this "mountain torque" event. fixed Tonight's GFS and Euro ensembles show a +PNA and east coast trough in the long-range so the pattern isn't a total disaster. It's probably gonna produce a lot of weak rain systems passing by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 adam, you are hooked on this "mountain torque" event. Amazingly, it's still showing up well in the statistical guidance. It's nice when things work out like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 It looks to me like Jan is going average above to much above normal. However, the MJO is going to head back to the P2-P3 areas around the New Year (it may not show up in the Phase Space plots given the lack of subsidence over the Maritime Continent), which will set off a mountain torque event off the Himalayas, leading to the possibility of some -AO conditions around Jan 10-15 or so. After that, I think we'll head back to a torch. IOW, overall the month is going to suck (or be awesome, depending on your frame of reference), but there should be a brief window around mid-month to sneak a system through, I haven't been to the stratospheric warming thread in a while, is the consensus that its not going to make it to the troposphere? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 I haven't been to the stratospheric warming thread in a while, is the consensus that its not going to make it to the troposphere? The consensus (from Don S, Wes, Jorge, myself) is that it is a relatively unimportant event. The warming is going on at 1-10mb and the E-P flux is pointed equatorward. It may cause some weak blocking over the Pacific, but that's about it. It's certainly not a SSW or anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 The consensus (from Don S, Wes, Jorge, myself) is that it is a relatively unimportant event. The warming is going on at 1-10mb and the E-P flux is pointed equatorward. It may cause some weak blocking over the Pacific, but that's about it. It's certainly not a SSW or anything. I think that may be changing. The ep flux on berlin site looks to be shifting towards the poles and the 30mb temps are forecast to rise to at or jsut above climo. That suggests that at the very least that the polar vortex may be weakening if the euro is right. The wave certainly is downwelling some, the question is how much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 I think that may be changing. The ep flux on berlin site looks to be shifting towards the poles and the 30mb temps are forecast to rise to at or jsut above climo. That suggests that at the very least that the polar vortex may be weakening if the euro is right. The wave certainly is downwelling some, the question is how much. Yeah, I'd posted that before I saw the new E-P flux forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 im just solely basing this off the gfs. Don't have access to the 11-15 day euro ens, but to hr 240 euro really doesn't have any changes to the pattern, but then again all these changes on the gfs are post 240. But if you want colder times the last 2 runs of the gfs in the longer run would do the trick. I also like seeing more clipper like systems being shown. I think this is our only shot at all snow in this unfavorable pattern. Granted most of the clippers will be further north along the polar jet, but some may sneak down. Here is the 0z and 6z gfs runs, which if they were "true" would soon advertise a colder pattern after new years.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 lol just saw this, hb that 1059 on the west slopes in canada lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 This map is rated NC-17 (except for Adam where its rated G) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 This map is rated NC-17 (except for Adam where its rated G) blasphemy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 This map is rated NC-17 (except for Adam where its rated G) lol, Florida is below normal. Head south FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Nice TS off the coast of SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plokoon111 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 The caption for this thread, I keep singing it like that green day song. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Weeklies look fantastic especially week 2 and 3 with a return of HLB rejoice weenies (courtesy jd) so nice to see blues! Taken from the NE thread. Not sure if it offers us good news but it doesn't sound bad. Maybe Adam could give an update or at least a standard blowtorch picture! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Taken from the NE thread. Not sure if it offers us good news but it doesn't sound bad. Maybe Adam could give an update or at least a standard blowtorch picture! LOL. I don't know that guy, but don't trust any analysis from him ever again. Every single week is +2 or better on the anomalies down here. Week 3 is the coldest and SNE might get to normal. Maine is the only blue area that week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 LOL. I don't know that guy, but don't trust any analysis from him ever again. Every single week is +2 or better on the anomalies down here. Week 3 is the coldest and SNE might get to normal. Maine is the only blue area that week. He's in the Yankees thread and hard for me to distinguish between his troll and serious posts, which means I guess he is pretty good at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 The caption for this thread, I keep singing it like that green day song. I suggested Tombo in previous posts just wake up after December ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 I suggested Tombo in previous posts just wake up after December ends. At this point maybe you should say January.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 At this point maybe you should say January.... With the caveat that I had January as the coldest winter month relative to normal in the analog series, I'm holding out some impartial, objective hope for the month, especially the second half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 With the caveat that I had January as the coldest winter month relative to normal in the analog series, I'm holding out some impartial, objective hope for the month, especially the second half. As I posted yesterday, I think the mid-month period holds the most promise. 10-15 days after MJO-related convection gets going in the IO, we should see a -EPO response, allowing for some (*some*) cold air to get into the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 LOL. I don't know that guy, but don't trust any analysis from him ever again. Every single week is +2 or better on the anomalies down here. Week 3 is the coldest and SNE might get to normal. Maine is the only blue area that week. Gotcha. By the way, any chance i could borrow your blowtorch over Christmas. I got a sledgehammer i would like to introduce it to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Gotcha. By the way, any chance i could borrow your blowtorch over Christmas. I got a sledgehammer i would like to introduce it to. Based on that photo, it looks like Adam is using a nuclear weapon for a blowtorch these days. I'm not sure if we should be introducing your sledgehammer to his nukes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Based on that photo, it looks like Adam is using a nuclear weapon for a blowtorch these days. I'm not sure if we should be introducing your sledgehammer to his nukes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 The NAEFS is starting to look better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Rob G is posting on his website of good potential for Jan 1-3 period http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&topicid=238&groupid=8&Itemid=179 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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