famartin Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I think the BL temps are the least of our concerns right now. Let it take a good track with a source of cold air and we could be in business. That timeframe is the one to watch the most, and no, it's not a certainty. But good to track. If that's how you get your "kicks" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 the fact that the euro has a 1032 high over maine and temps and bl issues are warm says alot. Also the fact it has a weak/perfect storm track for this weekend and its rain says how ****ty this pattern is. The problem too may be (as of today) the amount and depth of snow cover in New England and the St. Lawrence Valley in Canada isn't really too deep. Its not as if that high is building over a 20" plus snow base. Ironically I've spent a chunk of the last two days finalizing stormdata for the late October snowstorm, so haven't looked deeply if our first two waves might build the snowpack up there prior to the arrival of the high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2011 Author Share Posted December 20, 2011 The problem too may be (as of today) the amount and depth of snow cover in New England and the St. Lawrence Valley in Canada isn't really too deep. Its not as if that high is building over a 20" plus snow base. Ironically I've spent a chunk of the last two days finalizing stormdata for the late October snowstorm, so haven't looked deeply if our first two waves might build the snowpack up there prior to the arrival of the high. its just odd. You would think a 1034 high in north of vt would bring in cold temps, when in fact it doesnt do much at all. In the end it hurts us as it moves out it brings an easterly component to the wind off the gulf waters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 The problem too may be (as of today) the amount and depth of snow cover in New England and the St. Lawrence Valley in Canada isn't really too deep. Its not as if that high is building over a 20" plus snow base. Ironically I've spent a chunk of the last two days finalizing stormdata for the late October snowstorm, so haven't looked deeply if our first two waves might build the snowpack up there prior to the arrival of the high. i thought this snippet might be relevant to this: On December 19th, 2010 52.5% of the lower 48 was covered by snow, this December 19th it's 20.9% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 its just odd. You would think a 1034 high in north of vt would bring in cold temps, when in fact it doesnt do much at all. In the end it hurts us as it moves out it brings an easterly component to the wind off the gulf waters stupid HP's are over rated!! bring in the 50-50! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 ps.. 12-19-09.. the start of the best winter ever!!! (and +1 on NYC! ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 JBs map for the 3 waves..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 thanks for the map paul, id take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 JBs map for the 3 waves..... I'm holding him to this. I really am. I'm getting so tired of this man, making completely hype-driven profit-seeking forecasts that are often very wrong, and then bashing the NWS for not doing the same. If I have 3" or more of snow on the ground on the evening of 12/26, I will go out, buy a hat, and eat it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Here are the Trenton seasonal snow totals for winters where there was no measurable snow in November or December (totals since 1981 are unofficial): 2006-07: 12.5" 2001-02: 6.6" 1999-00: 24.1" 1994-95: 16.4" 1965-66: 22.1" 1954-55: 13.1" 1937-38: 7.6" 1934-35: 26.4" 1918-19: 2.0" 1906-07: 32.0" 1905-06: 13.0" 1899-00: 21.0" 1897-98: 14.0" 1891-92: 13.0" 1889-90: 13.0" 1888-89: 10.0" 1875-76: 7.0" If December ends snowless, the odds are stacked against a snowy winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I'm holding him to this. I really am. I'm getting so tired of this man, making completely hype-driven profit-seeking forecasts that are often very wrong, and then bashing the NWS for not doing the same. If I have 3" or more of snow on the ground on the evening of 12/26, I will go out, buy a hat, and eat it. This is almost sig worthy...especially since the GFS and Euro has the third wave as rain in the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2011 Author Share Posted December 20, 2011 Here are the Trenton seasonal snow totals for winters where there was no measurable snow in November or December (totals since 1981 are unofficial): 2006-07: 12.5" 2001-02: 6.6" 1999-00: 24.1" 1994-95: 16.4" 1965-66: 22.1" 1954-55: 13.1" 1937-38: 7.6" 1934-35: 26.4" 1918-19: 2.0" 1906-07: 32.0" 1905-06: 13.0" 1899-00: 21.0" 1897-98: 14.0" 1891-92: 13.0" 1889-90: 13.0" 1888-89: 10.0" 1875-76: 7.0" If December ends snowless, the odds are stacked against a snowy winter. im pushing for it. This weather pattern seriously looks like vince young in the seattle game...I don't see any sign of change. The mjo still is on a merry go round, the teleconnections are horrible...the ssw wasnt even a warming it was a return to normalcy Hallelujah! Holy ****! Where's the tylenol?... bring on the torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Here are the Trenton seasonal snow totals for winters where there was no measurable snow in November or December (totals since 1981 are unofficial): 2006-07: 12.5" 2001-02: 6.6" 1999-00: 24.1" 1994-95: 16.4" 1965-66: 22.1" 1954-55: 13.1" 1937-38: 7.6" 1934-35: 26.4" 1918-19: 2.0" 1906-07: 32.0" 1905-06: 13.0" 1899-00: 21.0" 1897-98: 14.0" 1891-92: 13.0" 1889-90: 13.0" 1888-89: 10.0" 1875-76: 7.0" If December ends snowless, the odds are stacked against a snowy winter. That would average out to 14.92941 inches (don't want to short change us;) ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 its just odd. You would think a 1034 high in north of vt would bring in cold temps, when in fact it doesnt do much at all. In the end it hurts us as it moves out it brings an easterly component to the wind off the gulf waters Yeah basically its too fast, without Rob's 50/50 low it makes a hasty exit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 im pushing for it. This weather pattern seriously looks like vince young in the seattle game...I don't see any sign of change. The mjo still is on a merry go round, the teleconnections are horrible...the ssw wasnt even a warming it was a return to normalcy Hallelujah! Holy ****! Where's the tylenol?... bring on the torch Thank-you Captain Obvious post by me, the NAEFS week two temperature outlooks are getting uglier and uglier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Thank-you Captain Obvious post by me, the NAEFS week two temperature outlooks are getting uglier and uglier. So are the Euro weeklies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 So are the Euro weeklies. Its amazing the effect Mt. Holly mets have on the winter weather pattern by just going out and buying a brand new snow thrower. (BTW I bought my new one for the winter of 2007-8 ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2011 Author Share Posted December 20, 2011 So are the Euro weeklies. so is everything else weather related Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Update from DT http://www.wxrisk.com/2011/12/xmas-day-east-coast-storm-and-update-on-sswe/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 So are the Euro weeklies. Just out of curiosity, do the weeklies come out just on Thursday, twice a week or once daily? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 Just out of curiosity, do the weeklies come out just on Thursday, twice a week or once daily? Thanks. Tony, im not positive on this, but from reading around the board i think they come out twice a week thursday and like around the monday timeframe. give or take a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Tony, im not positive on this, but from reading around the board i think they come out twice a week thursday and like around the monday timeframe. give or take a day. Yep, Monday and Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Its amazing the effect Mt. Holly mets have on the winter weather pattern by just going out and buying a brand new snow thrower. (BTW I bought my new one for the winter of 2007-8 ) Tony, I hope me your snow thrower never meet cause it would get ugly Saw an accu posting the other day that snowlies had no winter for us till "maybe" the 4th week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Saw an accu posting the other day that snowlies had no winter for us till "maybe" the 4th week. If you're talking about the weeklies, "maybe" is generous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Yep, Monday and Thursday Thank-you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 If you're talking about the warmlies, "maybe" is generous. fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 http://ggweather.com...18z_slp_all.htm I imagine a large H located over Georgia on New Years Day and beyond is good for one thing, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Thankfully by the end of the run the high in Georgia has moved off the coast and a new one takes over in Mississippi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 If we have a mild and snowless winter, so be it. They happen. And after the last two winters, there's really no reason to complain. BUT ... if a pattern change to below normal temps occurs in mid/late March and we have another cold, rainy spring, yeah I'll probably get 5-posted or banned. Nothing like running the heat until Memorial day and then turning on the AC three days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 If we have a mild and snowless winter, so be it. They happen. And after the last two winters, there's really no reason to complain. BUT ... if a pattern change to below normal temps occurs in mid/late March and we have another cold, rainy spring, yeah I'll probably get 5-posted or banned. Nothing like running the heat until Memorial day and then turning on the AC three days later. Doesn't it seem we get more than our fair share of springs like that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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