Quakertown needs snow Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 For those of us who are "heights"-challenged, why the comment "Oh Canada"? its the Canadian model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Latest from JB on the evolution of the pattern "moral is this stratwarm should have western cold first, then a press after that, but only after a major and prolonged period of ridging over the southeast, If you want cold to overwhelm the pattern, and I know a bunch of you guys that read this will then rewrite it, so I am stating it now, THE WARMING MUST COME ALL THE WAY ACROSS TO GREENLAND! That is at least 3-4 weeks off and what should happen is we go to the western trough and the southeast ridge by Jan 10th, except there will be frigid air in the trough in the west, not Pacific air as we have seen" Below is his snow map for the next 2 weeks "The blue line where there should be at least an inch of snow on one of the nights over the next 2 weeks. Why nights. Cause what good is snow if there are not holiday lights shining on it, right?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Latest from JB on the evolution of the pattern "moral is this stratwarm should have western cold first, then a press after that, but only after a major and prolonged period of ridging over the southeast, If you want cold to overwhelm the pattern, and I know a bunch of you guys that read this will then rewrite it, so I am stating it now, THE WARMING MUST COME ALL THE WAY ACROSS TO GREENLAND! That is at least 3-4 weeks off and what should happen is we go to the western trough and the southeast ridge by Jan 10th, except there will be frigid air in the trough in the west, not Pacific air as we have seen" Below is his snow map for the next 2 weeks "The blue line where there should be at least an inch of snow on one of the nights over the next 2 weeks. Why nights. Cause what good is snow if there are not holiday lights shining on it, right?" Eh, I wouldn't call our airmass "pacific", with lows in the single digits and highs around 40 just about every day since 12/1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/MRF_12z/mrfloop2.html 12z gfs not bad, not great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 EC after Christmas is cold/dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 EC after Christmas is cold/dry. Cue in evil laughter, this is exactly where we want the models to be in that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 Cue in evil laughter, this is exactly where we want the models to be in that range. The ens mean at 240 hrs is anything but cold across the country. We're still not that torchy but...... I think the pattern has it right where it want us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soadforecaster Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 nice phase around 180, now if only that trough went neg tilted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 Euro looks interesting for some kind of frozen precipitation christmas weekend primarily north and west of I95 but im only looking at the crappy maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 Euro looks interesting for some kind of frozen precipitation christmas weekend but im only looking at the crappy maps Day 10 on the Euro looks very interesting. GFS has been hinting at something in this time period for a coupleof days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Since I was part of this on how "cold" this weekend will be, I will post the pfm max temps I issued that Tuesday morning for our Mount Holly points and then post verification on Monday. It wouldn't be the first nor the last time I'd be wrong. Sat/Sun highs ABE...40...40. PHL...43...43. ILG....43...43. ACY...44...45. MPO..32...32. TTN...42...42. RDG...40..40. DOV...44...45. GED...47...47. Time to pay the piper, it was a split decision over the weekend, Saturday was ok, but Sunday was cold. In DC, National Airport's highs were 43 and 44 respectively, so Sterling's temp forecasts were pretty much spot on both days. Sat/Sun fcst highs ABE...40...40. PHL...43...43. ILG....43...43. ACY...44...45. MPO..32...32. TTN...42...42. RDG...40..40. DOV...44...45. GED...47...47. Sat/Sun actual highs ABE...39...35. PHL...42...36. ILG....42...37. ACY...47...36. MPO..32...27. TTN...44...35. RDG...40..37. DOV...44...38. GED...46...40. Looking ahead, yeah the pattern still doesn't look great with generally weak progressive waves. But with the gradual lowering of normal temps, at least it looks like places north and west of I95 have the chance of seeing some snow with these waves vs none at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 +1 for JB? haha. Just bustin chops. Was it because of clearer skies? Or were temps just that much lower than forecasted?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 19, 2011 Author Share Posted December 19, 2011 +1 for JB? haha. Just bustin chops. Was it because of clearer skies? Or were temps just that much lower than forecasted?? the thicknesses were pretty low, sub 525, supports the cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 0Z GFS dosen't look that bad. Showing a coastal around the 26th. It Doesn't look as torchy in the long term with progressive trofs coming through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Looks like from the NYC board that the 00z Euro gets some snow in our area too on Christmas.. more NW of Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 EC tries to drag in some extremely marginal cold air right on the tail end of the system and may change it over to snow, but again, its *extremely* marginal. I wouldn't get excited yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Looks like from the NYC board that the 00z Euro gets some snow in our area too on Christmas.. more NW of Philly. Just going off the wundermaps, it's marginal, as Ray said. Everyone NW of 295 has <0 850's for the event, but the 0C isotherm at 850 runs right along 295 until the last frame, which is way too close for comfort. The BL is pretty torchy too, with the 2m 4C isotherm all the way up in the LV at the start, and at the coldest period we still have the 0C isotherm NW of 95. Still though, the exact numbers from tombo would be fun, for s&g's anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 The 0z GGEM is trying to pop something in the Gulf at 144 (a solid 12-18 hours behind the Euro) but the flow aloft is significantly different. The ECM has a trough axis in the OV, while the GGEM is much more broad with the trough and has it centered over the southern Plains, which probably means extrapolated this would be a warm southern slider. Still though, it's nice to see 3 major models developing something around the same time frame 6 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Just going off the wundermaps, it's marginal, as Ray said. Everyone NW of 295 has <0 850's for the event, but the 0C isotherm at 850 runs right along 295 until the last frame, which is way too close for comfort. The BL is pretty torchy too, with the 2m 4C isotherm all the way up in the LV at the start, and at the coldest period we still have the 0C isotherm NW of 95. Still though, the exact numbers from tombo would be fun, for s&g's anyway. The snow map posted had everyone just north of Philly getting a couple to a few inches.. that's good for the Euro lately. The GFS wants to create multiple systems, with the best potential after Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 The snow map posted had everyone just north of Philly getting a couple to a few inches.. that's good for the Euro lately. The GFS wants to create multiple systems, with the best potential after Christmas. just double that and that's pretty close to what the Euro is spitting out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 The snow map posted had everyone just north of Philly getting a couple to a few inches.. that's good for the Euro lately. The GFS wants to create multiple systems, with the best potential after Christmas. Don't you remember what happened the last time the EC showed several inches near/just northwest of Philly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 19, 2011 Author Share Posted December 19, 2011 As ryan said, its pretty torchy the boundry layer south of the lehigh valley. Thicknesses are also a little to high for anyone south of lehigh valley til the storms starts pulling away.,... The track of the low isnt that favorable for the city and burbs with it basically sitting on the beaches. One thing i do like and if we can time it perfect is there is a 1032 plus high thats moving across the region as the storm comes in. While the storm is here though the high slides north of maine and into nova scotia. That may hurt to because of the return flow around it. Only thing im wondering is if the euro is not picking up on the strength of the high pressure. For a 1032 plus high in a good spot it should be evecting cold air down the east side of the apps better. The euro seems like its having a tough time moving it south. Def. a shot of some snow for the area, but i would favor for nw areas right now with maybe rain changing to snow at the end for the burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 19, 2011 Author Share Posted December 19, 2011 teleconnection wise, not really that favorable for a i95 snow. extremely pos nao, the pna is pos but the ridge axis argues for a cutter not a coastal. With the mean axis over seattle not boise. To me the ggem has the more ideal track for what the pattern dictates. Fwiw the euro ens are more offshore with the low, and a good high placement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 19, 2011 Author Share Posted December 19, 2011 heres the next 6 hrs of the euro snowmap in addition to phlwx, to feed the weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 I went halfway between the Euro and GFS today... snow into the Poconos, but kept most of our area as mostly rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 +1 for JB? haha. Just bustin chops. Was it because of clearer skies? Or were temps just that much lower than forecasted?? The 00z/Tue Euro run was colder than the GFS run that night and verified better for our area. Don't I get a +1 for Saturday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Just catching up with last night and this am runs. 0Z GFS looks interesting but probably 6z more reality. Should be a fun Merry week of tracking or Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Just catching up with last night and this am runs. 0Z GFS looks interesting but probably 6z more reality. Should be a fun Merry week of tracking or Congrats on you and Tombo being neighbors. You gotta get him to change his screen name to Quakertown needs snow II Stating the obvious that alot can change between now and the weekend, but the more elevation/distance from the ocean I have, the better I would feel right now. I see Mike2010 took his grill out of the garage and placed it back on his deck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Congrats on you and Tombo being neighbors. You gotta get him to change his screen name to Quakertown needs snow II I think Tom is just temporary with his GF here or has it become permanent with him moving in? If so he never asked if its ok it to invade my/redsky's area . If he is permanent I'll have to be more accurate with snowfall measuring and not fluff up my numbers otherwise he may drive over to verify edit: just saw Tom has locaton as Qtown so it must be permanent? congrats Tom! Just stay in the boro . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Any similarities between this and Xmas Day 2002? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.