Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 No, they're pretty much real time. There are no lags in the correlation images people post. Thanks So essentially December is cooked, but I guess most already new that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Thanks So essentially December is cooked, but I guess most already new that... Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 15, 2011 Author Share Posted December 15, 2011 Yup cue... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Adam's avatar just says it all. No words needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Hadn't seen the blowtorch pic for the previous 2 winters... Not too shabby.! Heard the euro was trying to build some heights into the artic region towards the end of it's run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 15, 2011 Author Share Posted December 15, 2011 Hadn't seen the blowtorch pic for the previous 2 winters... Not too shabby.! Heard the euro was trying to build some heights into the artic region towards the end of it's run? it does, but the 11-15 day ens look horrible...fwiw here is the cfs forecast for next 3 months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 FWIW, The weeklies continued the theme of se ridging through the period, but they gradually build the Aleutian ridge as we get into January. Perhaps this is due to Nina climo and the battering of MT events and warming in the Stratosphere over this region. They have a pretty strong +AO through the period....almost Dec '07 like with confluence in se Canada. The trend of flattening the ridge in the Aleutians as we get closer is concerning, but I guess sooner or later..we'll see that ridge build. Also, the PNA appears to want to go + and believe it or not...the EC has busted too low with it. I remember some thoughts from a few people of the persist transient -EPO ridge just west of NAMR and that might be related to the model busting too low. Either way, the AO has overpowered everything...but I thought I'd share this with you guys. I think we may be well into Jan before any sig changes in the AO region, but with any luck..we can get the PV to weaken a bit as we head through the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 15, 2011 Author Share Posted December 15, 2011 someone on my fb posted the ukmet monthlies...ouch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 it does, but the 11-15 day ens look horrible...fwiw here is the cfs forecast for next 3 months Holy Fook!! We're gonna need a bigger flame.... This could get ugly. Time is on our Side for now. Still have hope for Jan and Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Holy Fook!! We're gonna need a bigger flame.... This could get ugly. Time is on our Side for now. Still have hope for Jan and Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 need to put out the flame somehow Joe Bastardi Wait'll you get a load of the motherlode of arctic air that shows up in western Canada in Jan. Warmingistas, get ready to make excuses Joe Bastardi Pac northwest... after Jan 5th, and probably by Jan 15th major and severe cold will invade US.. You guys first. plains in it too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 JB tweet this evening.."Massive battleground between fierce cold and major warmth...pushes slowly southeast through US in January. PAC NW after Jan 5th and probably by the 15th - major and severe cold will invade US" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 He's keeping it west of the ms river it seems like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 He's keeping it west of the ms river it seems like. Makes sense given the state of the AO so far this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 it does, but the 11-15 day ens look horrible...fwiw here is the cfs forecast for next 3 months Ouch. Talk about a strong signal . The PNA is just no match for the AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 0z GFS says that's not warm enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Winter Classic Tourch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 12z GFS 288, almost a full Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fsu_wxgirl Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 12z GFS 288, almost a full That should be interesting for my vacation in Virginia! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 That should be interesting for my vacation in Virginia! Cool, VA obs but your on vacation so no posting allowed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fsu_wxgirl Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Cool, VA obs but your on vacation so no posting allowed I'll only post if I get good grill pictures from my parents deck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 I'll only post if I get good grill pictures from my parents deck. That's the spirit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 12Z CMC has a Miller A around Christmas. Still in the long range but its the nicest model porn this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 12Z CMC has a Miller A around Christmas. Still in the long range but its the nicest model porn this year Antecedent cold air FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 12Z CMC has a Miller A around Christmas. Still in the long range but its the nicest model porn this year I don't know that I would call that a Miller A with only a sub-1016mb sfc reflection. Sure it's nice to dream though. (Now this part isn't directed at you, but just in general:) Anyone who's expecting a Miller A out of this pattern needs a reality check. With a raging +AO and +NAO, we're stuck with progressive flow (too progressive for significant cyclogenesis) and we'll be lucky if we even see the SE ridge relax enough to get a storm to track to our south. Sure if we get a transient +PNA pattern with just the right timing then we might me able to squeeze something out, but the two storms that come to mind that were mostly PNA-dependent were 1/26/11 and 2/11/06, and both occurred much later in the season when we had a bit more cold to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 I don't know that I would call that a Miller A with only a sub-1016mb sfc reflection. Sure it's nice to dream though. (Now this part isn't directed at you, but just in general:) Anyone who's expecting a Miller A out of this pattern needs a reality check. With a raging +AO and +NAO, we're stuck with progressive flow (too progressive for significant cyclogenesis) and we'll be lucky if we even see the SE ridge relax enough to get a storm to track to our south. Sure if we get a transient +PNA pattern with just the right timing then we might me able to squeeze something out, but the two storms that come to mind that were mostly PNA-dependent were 1/26/11 and 2/11/06, and both occurred much later in the season when we had a bit more cold to work with. Well I say Miller A because the energy origionates in the SW on the CMC, gets ejected out into the MS Valley and phases, then it tracks up through GA and there is secondary cyclogenesis off Cape Hatteras. Perhaps its more of a hybrid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 cue... Winter of 2011-2012 "Sanduskied" so far! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 oh canada, 12/31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 For those of us who are "heights"-challenged, why the comment "Oh Canada"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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