Riptide Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 The wunderground maps had no snow on them. Even the gfs down there looking at the soundings as is would be mostly rain. There is nothing terribly exciting in NAEFSland or with the MJO. I'm no stratosphere expert, based on observations temperatures they have warmed to normal on the ecmwf site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Yup, (almost) all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 congrats on everyone's clouds on Saturday AM if the NAM is right (dark gray=clouds) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF0.5_0z/ecmwfloop.html The Christmas Eve, Christmas Day time period is looking a little interesting for now. Euro has a little snow possibly. The GFS has a storm around that period and the Canadian is the most impressive of all. With a horrible pattern right now at least it is something to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 15, 2011 Author Share Posted December 15, 2011 http://www.meteo.psu.../ecmwfloop.html The Christmas Eve, Christmas Day time period is looking a little interesting for now. Euro has a little snow possibly. The GFS has a storm around that period and the Canadian is the most impressive of all. With a horrible pattern right now at least it is something to track. yea its mainly rain philly area, rain over to snow further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 would feel a lot better if the Euro were farther north and stronger than it is...hanging your hat on the 18z GFS ensembles is really throwing it out on the limb. We have some people showing 312 hour gfs ensembles like it's a lock in some of the other forums. I guess some will show anything that backs up their forecast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 We have some people showing 312 hour gfs ensembles like it's a lock in some of the other forums. I guess some will show anything that backs up their forecast! Consider this your warning. I'm tired of your wishcasting and denigrating good weather discussion. Next step will be post restrictions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Speaking of maps, how did the long term look on the Op Euro and the ens? I've read that some are seeing the signs of change that we've been waiting for. Unfortunately we've all seen that before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Speaking of maps, how did the long term look on the Op Euro and the ens? I've read that some are seeing the signs of change that we've been waiting for. Unfortunately we've all seen that before. Some signs of PNA ridging around Christmas, but still a raging +NAO. I actually am buying off on a short term PNA ridge due to the tropical forcing, but the Atlantic will remain hostile for some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Last night I was seeing signs that the MJO was possibly headed for 7, which would be a more fav. position for cold in the east. Wouldnt that help to get the NAO finally heading negative? Thanks for the update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Last night I was seeing signs that the MJO was possibly headed for 7, which would be a more fav. position for cold in the east. Wouldnt that help to get the NAO finally heading negative? Thanks for the update Not really. The MJO doesn't have much correlation to the NAO. What it does help with is the position of ridging (or lack thereof) across the Pacific. A P7-P8-P1 can help develop a -NAO, but only indirectly by affecting the Pacific/EPO/PNA pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 15, 2011 Author Share Posted December 15, 2011 Last night I was seeing signs that the MJO was possibly headed for 7, which would be a more fav. position for cold in the east. Wouldnt that help to get the NAO finally heading negative? Thanks for the update The phase 7-8 is good for coastals because the ridge position is centered over the west and the trof axis is centered to our west, but keeping us cold and allowing storms to turn the corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 15, 2011 Author Share Posted December 15, 2011 I don't see the storm next week doing much around here. I could possibly see it start off and some frozen precip for spots with the departing antecedent airmass, but it should go over to rain quickly. To much has to go right. You need perfect timing. That energy has to eject out as soon as that 2nd clipper comes by. The departing high off the se coast doesnt help either with turning the winds to the south, and thats the kiss of death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Tom are you thinking Poconos up to Scranton rain also? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 The wunderground maps had no snow on them. Even the gfs down there looking at the soundings as is would be mostly rain. There is nothing terribly exciting in NAEFSland or with the MJO. I'm no stratosphere expert, based on observations temperatures they have warmed to normal on the ecmwf site. Sigh. The forecast freezing level at 1 am on Saturday the 17th at Dover off the same GFS run is about 2,300 feet and is still at 1,600 feet at 7 am Saturday morning. (This is off of Twister data). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 15, 2011 Author Share Posted December 15, 2011 Tom are you thinking Poconos up to Scranton rain also? yup, they will go over to rain to. The pocs will have a longer duration of frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Definitely. But I actually agree with him RE: colder temps. Not sure what the Mt Holly forecasts are for this weekend, but Sterling is going for low-mid 40s for highs/upper 20s for lows. At the moment, I'd expect things are a bit colder. Since I was part of this on how "cold" this weekend will be, I will post the pfm max temps I issued that morning for our Mount Holly points and then post verification on Monday. It wouldn't be the first nor the last time I'd be wrong. Sat/Sun highs ABE...40...40. PHL...43...43. ILG....43...43. ACY...44...45. MPO..32...32. TTN...42...42. RDG...40..40. DOV...44...45. GED...47...47. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Kind of surprised nobodyis talking about the Norlun (?) or disturbance coming thru at around 70 hours. Looks like some areas could pick up a light coating anyway: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Kind of surprised nobodyis talking about the Norlun (?) or disturbance coming thru at around 70 hours. Looks like some areas could pick up a light coating anyway: see my shovel pic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 15, 2011 Author Share Posted December 15, 2011 Kind of surprised nobodyis talking about the Norlun (?) or disturbance coming thru at around 70 hours. Looks like some areas could pick up a light coating anyway: steve i think its because these things are poorly modelled 24 hrs before the event yet alone 3 days from the event. 6z had it over nyc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 steve i think its because these things are poorly modelled 24 hrs before the event yet alone 3 days from the event. 6z had it over nyc. did u see the 12z version yet?, notta :lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 15, 2011 Author Share Posted December 15, 2011 did u see the 12z version yet?, notta :lol i was going off the nam, should of clarified that. The nam would have abetter handle on norlun like features because its a meso scale model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 i was going off the nam, should of clarified that. The nam would have abetter handle on norlun like features because its a meso scale model 12z nam looks better for flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 15, 2011 Author Share Posted December 15, 2011 12z euro dives the clipper south of us and gives dc area some flakes and delaware Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 steve i think its because these things are poorly modelled 24 hrs before the event yet alone 3 days from the event. 6z had it over nyc. This. The Euro has it down over DC/Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 15, 2011 Author Share Posted December 15, 2011 12z euro keeps it interesting for christmas with a coastal developing along a cold front. Issue being, cold air, story of the winter..ftl...as of now their is some pretty decent agreement that a storm will be taking shape that may affect us. Ithink thats all you can ask for right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Is there a lag between the MJO phase space and the potential affects once it leaves its weak phase? Latest forecasts eventually drag it into phase 5, but will the phase 5 affects take time to evolve? My hunch is yes, something like 2-3 days since it is just getting more defined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Is there a lag between the MJO phase space and the potential affects once it leaves its weak phase? Latest forecasts eventually drag it into phase 5, but will the phase 5 affects take time to evolve? My hunch is yes, something like 2-3 days since it is just getting more defined. No, they're pretty much real time. There are no lags in the correlation images people post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 No, they're pretty much real time. There are no lags in the correlation images people post. It's real time because the MJO phase is a representation of the general spacing of the troughs and ridges, right? So, if the MJO is in phase X, the ridges and troughs are generally in the positions associated with phase X? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 It's real time because the MJO phase is a representation of the general spacing of the troughs and ridges, right? So, if the MJO is in phase X, the ridges and troughs are generally in the positions associated with phase X? -ish. The MJO phase is a representation of the upward/downward vertical motion in tropics, but the upward motion releases extra latent heat, which helps to build ridges downstream. Transport of the latent heat from the tropics to the mid-latitudes is a fairly quick process though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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