Quakertown needs snow Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 local ski areas will have a tough time making snow with this pattern, bummer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 22, 2011 Author Share Posted November 22, 2011 12z GFS shows no sign of a -NAO... fast zonal flow with heights and temps pending on the orientation of the PV sitting in Central/eastern canada. Pretty volitile pattern. key notes though, NO -NAO pacific firehouse is pouring in the entire conus. yea the op is just dredful...the ens are better...shows a nice trof signature at the end of the period. Still really no blocking available. The pos pna is the main culprit of this, as the other teleconnections are not very favorable. If We lose that pna signature and develop a strong pv over ak again, sh^t will hit the fan again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 22, 2011 Author Share Posted November 22, 2011 Tom, Last winter overall did average about 1.8F colder than the 1971-2000 normals. While Feb was warmer, December and January combined were colder than normal, December by nearly 5F. yea i figured last yr had a good shot, but i didnt know if the warm february mucked it up...that has to be the last below normal winter out of the past 5 seasons...in the past 10 the only other one i can think of was the 2002-2003 with the presidents day storm and that cold december...i remember ice on on the skook river that year in december Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 I believe a few good Decembers of late have spoiled us. I am 47 years old and for the most part i never would expect snow and cold until the New Year. I'm just as guilty as anyone for wanting to see snow now but reality says despite the October snowstorm for some of us, our normal highs are still in the low 50"s for this time of year. Patience most likely will pay off down the road. But it could be a long road to drive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherjedi Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 yea i figured last yr had a good shot, but i didnt know if the warm february mucked it up...that has to be the last below normal winter out of the past 5 seasons...in the past 10 the only other one i can think of was the 2002-2003 with the presidents day storm and that cold december...i remember ice on on the skook river that year in december As was the winter before i.e 2009-2010. PHL was .9 degrees BELOW normal for DJF. So that last two winters have been below normal for Philly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 As was the winter before i.e 2009-2010. PHL was .9 degrees BELOW normal for DJF. So that last two winters have been below normal for Philly! Here are the last ~30 years of winter temperatures at PHL. You can see that the median and average are both about 35.35. Rank AvgT Date 1 41.3 2001-2002 2 40.4 1997-1998 3 39.0 1990-1991 4 38.3 1998-1999 5 37.6 1991-1992 6 37.5 1996-1997 7 37.4 1994-1995 8 37.0 2005-2006 9 36.9 2007-2008 10 36.6 2006-2007 11 36.5 1982-1983 11 36.5 1992-1993 13 36.3 1999-2000 14 35.6 1988-1989 15 35.5 1989-1990 16 35.2 2004-2005 17 34.9 2008-2009 18 34.8 1984-1985 19 34.1 1986-1987 20 33.8 2009-2010 21 33.6 1987-1988 21 33.6 2000-2001 23 33.0 1993-1994 24 32.9 2010-2011 25 32.7 1985-1986 26 32.5 2003-2004 26 32.5 1983-1984 28 31.8 1995-1996 29 31.3 2002-2003 30 31.1 1981-1982 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Here are the last ~30 years of winter temperatures at PHL. You can see that the median and average are both about 35.35. Rank AvgT Date 1 41.3 2001-2002 2 40.4 1997-1998 3 39.0 1990-1991 4 38.3 1998-1999 5 37.6 1991-1992 6 37.5 1996-1997 7 37.4 1994-1995 8 37.0 2005-2006 9 36.9 2007-2008 10 36.6 2006-2007 11 36.5 1982-1983 11 36.5 1992-1993 13 36.3 1999-2000 14 35.6 1988-1989 15 35.5 1989-1990 16 35.2 2004-2005 17 34.9 2008-2009 18 34.8 1984-1985 19 34.1 1986-1987 20 33.8 2009-2010 21 33.6 1987-1988 21 33.6 2000-2001 23 33.0 1993-1994 24 32.9 2010-2011 25 32.7 1985-1986 26 32.5 2003-2004 26 32.5 1983-1984 28 31.8 1995-1996 29 31.3 2002-2003 30 31.1 1981-1982 The data shows that most of our warmer winters have occured within the last 20 years. What's ironic is that even though the 80's were colder, they were less snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 The data shows that most of our warmer winters have occured within the last 20 years. What's ironic is that even though the 80's were colder, they were less snowy. Since average lows are much more influenced by the increasing urban heat island than average highs, I think the following is more telling as far as "warmer" winters go... the 20 warmest average winter highs (and this is for all available PHL area data). Yes, there are still several recent years on there, but there are plenty of winters from "back in the day" too. 1 50.0 1931-1932 2 49.8 1889-1890 3 49.6 2001-2002 4 47.6 1990-1991 5 47.5 1997-1998 6 47.4 1879-1880 7 46.9 1912-1913 8 46.8 1932-1933 8 46.8 1949-1950 8 46.8 1948-1949 11 46.4 1998-1999 12 46.0 1936-1937 13 45.9 1953-1954 14 45.6 1991-1992 14 45.6 1952-1953 14 45.6 1951-1952 17 45.2 1918-1919 18 45.1 1974-1975 19 45.0 1994-1995 20 44.8 1908-1909 20 44.8 1996-1997 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 22, 2011 Author Share Posted November 22, 2011 took this from ray... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 12z GFS shows no sign of a -NAO... fast zonal flow with heights and temps pending on the orientation of the PV sitting in Central/eastern canada. Pretty volitile pattern. key notes though, NO -NAO pacific firehouse is pouring in the entire conus. Totally agree. The fire hose will open up with flooding and mudslides in the Pac west, heavy snows and avalanches into the Rockies and severe weather and tornadoes in the mid south and southern states. Rain and ice storms more problematic for us. I see some nasty ice storms this year for us with this setup. You watch , the fricking PV will settle in after a major ice storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 winters in general have been running much warmer...how many below normal winters have we had in the last 10 yrs? six on the new normals (35.3ish) 02-03, 03-04, 04-05 (just barely), 08-09, 09-10, 10-11. It's not 80's cold but the last three have been colder than average...even on the old averages it's been 4 of 10, with 08-09 coming in dead average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 EC ensembles for the last two runs have a squeeze play between SE ridge and a trough in Eastern Canada in about two weeks. The mean has a bit of a ridge in Western Canada. GFS ens mean has trough over the Lakes in a couple of weeks' time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 I get annoyed when I'm more confident in the D11-15 forecast than I am the D6-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 23, 2011 Author Share Posted November 23, 2011 I get annoyed when I'm more confident in the D11-15 forecast than I am the D6-10 in terms of, 11-15 u feel torch, while 6-10 is up in the air? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 in terms of, 11-15 u feel torch, while 6-10 is up in the air? Yeah. Gradient flow with WSWrlies aloft and rain systems moving through the flow. D6-10 is all dependent on how the stupid cutoff evolves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 23, 2011 Author Share Posted November 23, 2011 the teleconnections are getting a little better in the longer range...ao heading towards neutral...pna neutral to slightly pos, and nao neutral to slightly negative... if correct should see some colder air work down into southern canda and into the conus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 the teleconnections are getting a little better in the longer range...ao heading towards neutral...pna neutral to slightly pos, and nao neutral to slightly negative... if correct should see some colder air work down into southern canda and into the conus. about time you post a little bit of good news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 23, 2011 Author Share Posted November 23, 2011 about time you post a little bit of good news lol yea, but who knows how thats going to pan out. The long range forecast to verification are horrendous...plus the epo is still positive atleast the gfs ens are still showing this with the pv hanging around...as long as thats like that we wont get a serious dump of arctic air..thankfully you dont need a serious dump of arctic air to get snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 23, 2011 Author Share Posted November 23, 2011 gfs is trying develop a -nao in the long range, but not really west based...a lobe from the main pv breaks off and sits over the hudson bay areadoes transition the pattern to a normal to maybe slightly below pattern after the cutoff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 23, 2011 Author Share Posted November 23, 2011 The end of the 12z euro the pacific improves pretty good...almost looks like an omega block with a huge ridge going into alaska...now just.have to get the atl to cooperate...still a positive ao and nao....bit atleast with a pacfic looking as is cold air can.come down into the conus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 23, 2011 Author Share Posted November 23, 2011 -epo ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 23, 2011 Author Share Posted November 23, 2011 hr 168-174 of the euro has some snow for nj, from the del river on east as a coastal storm comes up the coast at the same time as a cold front is moving in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 18z Long range fantasy GFS has an east coast (snow?)storm along the east coast around the 6th of December. Don't take this the wrong way, but try and keep this in the banter thread. especially beyond the 200+ hour range. The GFS has been spitting out a different solution every run the last week.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 The cold that occurs post next week storm looks short-lived. GFS tries to warm us up a bit in advance of a day 10 storm. Euro is a bit delayed on showing the mini warm up (day 10+) but it's there as well. Just remember -- average high on December 1 is 50. It doesn't have to be uber cold out of the gate on 12/1 to get negative departures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 GFS has more cold runs than warm now (in the long range), so that's good to see. Looks like warm after today and then a cold shot, but we still don't know how long the cold lasts, and now much re-enforcement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 That PNA/EPO combo is nice on the 12z GFS. some deep Cold comes In in the longer range, also, some attempts at building a -NAO. Pure speculation at this point. But the Alaska PV doesnt make an appearance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 That PNA/EPO combo is nice on the 12z GFS. some deep Cold comes In in the longer range, also, some attempts at building a -NAO. Pure speculation at this point. But the Alaska PV doesnt make an appearance. Yeah, the 12Z GFS OP tries to bring a nice +PNA in in the longer term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 0z focuses most of the colder air over the Lakes and we continue the back-and-forth between cool-to-cold and mild with each system that moves through (mild ahead, cool behind). The EC sorta buys into this for next weekend...Saturday is rather chilly (30's?) but we see temps shoot quickly back 50 on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 25, 2011 Author Share Posted November 25, 2011 surprised no one has mentioned friday, deff has possibility of some snow on the backside as modelled now with a low forming on the cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 25, 2011 Author Share Posted November 25, 2011 It wouldnt be much and primarily concentrated in the burbs but deff has the first shot since oct of some flakes in the air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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