phlwx Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 well i must say 00z gfs looks better, crazy how we were talking about the vorts, you can see this time a small piece drops down into the system and deff gives it a different look, and the 00z euro takes that low north of Ottawa and then keeps us mild/warm through the 23rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Hey guys, I will not post anything from him anymore if it upsets folks. I am not agreeing or supporting him by by post. Simply passing on information. Let me know and I will not post any more quotes from his musings! Hey Paul, By all means, you can continue to post his forecasts. I always find them interesting, even if I disagree with them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 We can talk about it here, too, but I posted on the main board about the interesting tropical forcing dilemma on the main board if anyone is interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 We can talk about it here, too, but I posted on the main board about the interesting tropical forcing dilemma on the main board if anyone is interested. i'm afraid to look. does it involve any kind of flame thrower / veince type streets? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Himalayan mountain torque medium-long range quote of the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Some more possible good news (just one more element to look at) for colder pattern? I'm far from being an expert but there are many in this thread that are so expert's please chime in . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 14, 2011 Author Share Posted December 14, 2011 Some more possible good news (just one more element to look at) for colder pattern? I'm far from being an expert but there are many in this thread that are so expert's please chime in . thats showing the warmer temperatures moving in towards the pole, displacing the pv away from the pole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 14, 2011 Author Share Posted December 14, 2011 We can talk about it here, too, but I posted on the main board about the interesting tropical forcing dilemma on the main board if anyone is interested. yea i saw that when i looked at the roundy link you posted awhile back this morning. It is interesting like you said. The roundy map, which i circled shows a quick blurp into phase 7-8 before going back towards the phase 4-6. A ohase 7-8 should correlate to a building ridge out west and a developing trof in the lakes east coast area. This is during the same time an impending storm will be galloping across the conus. The euro mjo looks completely different as you alluded to. That is prob why the euro has a warm lake cutter. With a west coast trof east coast ridge which is expected with a phase 5 look. You can see the difference pretty vastly from the euro and gfs on the 19-20th storm. Its pretty interesting the new pna forecast has a little pop in the pna to a pos1 on the ensembles. Just looking at teleconnections. Its isnt horrible...near neutral na0, pos pna, neutral to negative ao...assuming these forecast are correct which hasn't been the case. Off the 0z euro, the euro brings in a strong closed wave that phases with the northern stream and send it right up to marquette. While the gfs keeps the shortwave separate from the northern stream. It drives the pv further south and leads to confluence over the northeast which allows the storm to slide ene instead of cut. The euro has the pv a lot further north. The gfs actually has somewhat of a transient 50/50 low....I also noted just looking at the gfs ens, op, and the euro. A clipper before the storm comes out of south could be a big component to. Seems like the gfs and its ensembles are bringing the clipper through first and further south. While the euro doesn't do this, its phasing that clipper with southern stream energy. So without the clipper coming down we dont get a fresh batch of cold air and a dropping pv. Just my 2 cents, this may be completely wrong, just trying to add some food for discussion. I think the solution lies inbetween both camps, with maybe a lean more towards the gfs. The euro has a tendancy from i believe to over phase storms coming out of sw. I don't think the pattern argues for that big of a cutter. Especially if the roundy and pna forecasts are correct with a pos pna. That pv is going to be around, how close will determine if it cuts or not. Also, i think the gfs is driving the cold air to far south with the pv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Hey guys, I will not post anything from him anymore if it upsets folks. I am not agreeing or supporting him by by post. Simply passing on information. Let me know and I will not post any more quotes from his musings! Thanks! Paul Although I'm an infrequent poster, I'm an avid lurker. IMO, his comments often provoke an interesting discussion of the finer details of a forecast. As a result, I often learn something new. I say keep posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Just my 2 cents, this may be completely wrong, just trying to add some food for discussion. I think the solution lies inbetween both camps, with maybe a lean more towards the gfs. The euro has a tendancy from i believe to over phase storms coming out of sw. I don't think the pattern argues for that big of a cutter. Especially if the roundy and pna forecasts are correct with a pos pna. That pv is going to be around, how close will determine if it cuts or not. Also, i think the gfs is driving the cold air to far south with the pv. Yes Yes Yes!!!! Good analysis, tombo... you wrote out what I was thinking that I didn't have time to post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Hi Tony, Will do....all the best! Paul Paul, I agree with what Ray posted. I don't think anyone or should I say I don't have any objections to you posting JB's meteorological thoughts on upcoming events. But if you wouldn't mind, please delete the non-meteorological parts. I would appreciate it. Ignorance is truly bliss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 12z gfs, southern system close but not close enough Saturday, flurries late Sunday? Xmas looks interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 14, 2011 Author Share Posted December 14, 2011 12z gfs, southern system close but not close enough Saturday, flurries late Sunday? Xmas looks interesting the gfs ens are further north with the first storm, and delivers some precip to the area. Also continues the idea for the clipper over the weekend with giving us something that 2nd clipper messes it up for us on the op gfs...you need that clipper to come out ahead of that system to reinforce the cold air since everything is transient. What happens with the gfs is they both come at us at once. With the clipper tracking across the north we get a southerly flow which warms it up. The gfs ens are mixed for the christmas day event some colder and south some further north and warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 For what ever it is worth some of the sref members on the latest run now have a clipper coming down late this weekend which IMO is a good thing if you want any kind of wintry precip from next weeks storm. Still thinking the GFS maybe trying to pick up on a good old fashion over running even for next week but will wait some more runs to see where the models go. there was a slight shift towards the GFS on the canadain and euro today but not major yet. No matter what happens going to be an interesting event next week and heck maybe a few flurries over the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 14, 2011 Author Share Posted December 14, 2011 swfe on the 18z gfs...some lead off frozen stuff then over to rain, obv more frozen further north. This is going to change 50 million times so dont get hung up on each run. The amount of energy bottled up in southwest and over texas is epic fail for models in the making. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 1st event on Saturday will probably just throw clouds to near Philly, with maybe flakes down near the DE Beaches. NBD. 2nd clipper has something to it if it can make it over the mtns...might just end up being flizzard-type conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 swfe on the 18z gfs...some lead off frozen stuff then over to rain, obv more frozen further north. This is going to change 50 million times so dont get hung up on each run. The amount of energy bottled up in southwest and over texas is epic fail for models in the making. The slow movement of the energy in my opinion probably wont happen. At the same time does not look like it could get as far north as the other models on the GFS. Last week models for a period were too slow with the energy in southwest and then as we got closer we saw them lose that idea and show the faster movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 14, 2011 Author Share Posted December 14, 2011 The slow movement of the energy in my opinion probably wont happen. At the same time does not look like it could get as far north as the other models on the GFS. Last week models for a period were too slow with the energy in southwest and then as we got closer we saw them lose that idea and show the faster movement. the faster movement would deff help if its timed right. I can just see what occurs right now...the cold comes in, and this starts moving in between the two cold shots as the weakness is less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 14, 2011 Author Share Posted December 14, 2011 the gfs ens continue to be a good bit further north with the first storm this weekend and bring precip into the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 the gfs ens continue to be a good bit further north with the first storm this weekend and bring precip into the region. The 500mb RH and 700MB of the GFS OP is quite a bit different H7 says this will stay south while the 500mb RH moisture supports some of the GFS ensembles. Might be a last minute nowcasting event if happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 maybe sunday could be this repeat for me, 1.25.07 1st seasonal snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 14, 2011 Author Share Posted December 14, 2011 maybe sunday could be this repeat for me, 1.25.07 1st seasonal snow you must of had some towering piles with all that snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 maybe sunday could be this repeat for me, 1.25.07 1st seasonal snow No need to brag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 14, 2011 Author Share Posted December 14, 2011 No need to brag. is that to deep for your snowblower? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 is that to deep for your snowblower? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 swfe on the 18z gfs...some lead off frozen stuff then over to rain, obv more frozen further north. This is going to change 50 million times so dont get hung up on each run. The amount of energy bottled up in southwest and over texas is epic fail for models in the making. Yeah, that is always a complicated matter for the models to handle. You most likely won't see much agreement until 48 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 the gfs ens continue to be a good bit further north with the first storm this weekend and bring precip into the region. would feel a lot better if the Euro were farther north and stronger than it is...hanging your hat on the 18z GFS ensembles is really throwing it out on the limb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Yeah, that is always a complicated matter for the models to handle. You most likely won't see much agreement until 48 hours out. Agree. We've been dealing with this type of set-up the past two weeks in the Midwest, and it's a forecasting nightmare. We kept getting little waves break off and drop a 50-mile snow swath with rain on one side and nothing on the other. Looking out on a longer range, the GFS ens mean has been running significantly too low the past month or so in both AO and NAO values, so I wouldn't put too much stuck into what the GFS ens mean says right now. Hopefully there will be a big pattern change in January. In fact, I'd guess right around the 11th will be a good time for a shot of snow...since my classes start back up the 11th out at Valpo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 15, 2011 Author Share Posted December 15, 2011 would feel a lot better if the Euro were farther north and stronger than it is...hanging your hat on the 18z GFS ensembles is really throwing it out on the limb. Yea im not giving it much consideration considering no other model has it close to the ens mean forecast. The 12z euro did inch north a hair, but no where near the gfs ens. Where the euro does get precip to, southern del it would prob be rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Yea im not giving it much consideration considering no other model has it close to the ens mean forecast. The 12z euro did inch north a hair, but no where near the gfs ens. Where the euro does get precip to, southern del it would prob be rain. The wunderground maps had no snow on them. Even the gfs down there looking at the soundings as is would be mostly rain. There is nothing terribly exciting in NAEFSland or with the MJO. I'm no stratosphere expert, based on observations temperatures they have warmed to normal on the ecmwf site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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