tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2011 Author Share Posted December 13, 2011 Now now, how many times do I have to post this? get ready, its coming...that will be independence hall jan 15th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2011 Author Share Posted December 13, 2011 Don't want to jump on a system too quick, but the 12z GFS brings a system in for Christmas Day. The winter weather weenie in me says go for it!!! The meteorologist is saying hold your horses...plus its only one model run guess I'll wait to see what the ensembles and Euro say. i do like the way the pacific is setting up in the long range...its just the dang atlantic looks like the eagles every other week. The mjo looks like it may want to cooperate once it comes out of the COD and push into phase 6 and possibly 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2011 Author Share Posted December 13, 2011 I guess until Jack Frost comes and puts out your little flame!(If he ever does...) this is how you retaliate to adams torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2011 Author Share Posted December 13, 2011 I'd still bet it ends up being similar to last week... rain for most, backside snow for the interior. Can't agree more re: the subforum. agreed, only way i see this producing anything is if the pv is stronger than projected so it pushes the storm south...I think sne and nne have a good shot of frozen precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Now I'm pretty sure that's a swipe at NWS. I really don't understand the need for the constant pot shots. This subforum has been really nice, so I'll just stop there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Getting back on topic, neither the 12z gfs or euro trended in a more exciting direction for fri ngt and sat mrng. I could see why leading into it on Friday the southern stream short wave is progged to be entering a confluent flow, that northern stream short wave over new england has to get out of the way. Regardless what has already been posted, the thermal field is marginal with this as it is, i.e. where its forecast to precipitate its warm enough for rain (ok maybe some sleet for Rib), can't back the low up without backing up some of the thermal field also. As per Christmas and beyond, I see the gefs mean is not as bullish with the +pna as it was with the 00z run, which we will need with the nao not cooperating. I'll post what the NAEFS shows later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Now I'm pretty sure that's a swipe at NWS. It would be interesting if someone emailed JB to ask him if by saying "point and clicks" he is referring to the NWS forecasts, just to see what his response would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 I just noticed the changed subtitle of this thread. Nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 It would be interesting if someone emailed JB to ask him if by saying "point and clicks" he is referring to the NWS forecasts, just to see what his response would be. This is a great idea. I guess one really needs to be subscriber to weatherbell to ask? We have at least one person in our Philly forum. Need some good news with a nice snowstorm to track soon since we just got more bad news with our Flyers, sorry off topic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Given the GEFS is part of the equation, while the NAEFS trended colder for the week of 12/21 -12/28, it was not as far east as the night run. On the other hand Hudson Bay is starting to freeze over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fsu_wxgirl Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Looks like Hudson Bay is slightly more ice covered than this time last year. But there is a LOT less snow coverage across the Ohio Valley and North East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soadforecaster Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 im at work right now so i can post this the way i want to, but funny how this storm went from a lakes cutter to a slider, i know its 18z gfs, but its the best thing i seen on there in a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Hey guys, I will not post anything from him anymore if it upsets folks. I am not agreeing or supporting him by by post. Simply passing on information. Let me know and I will not post any more quotes from his musings! Thanks! Paul This is a great idea. I guess one really needs to be subscriber to weatherbell to ask? We have at least one person in our Philly forum. Need some good news with a nice snowstorm to track soon since we just got more bad news with our Flyers, sorry off topic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 im at work right now so i can post this the way i want to, but funny how this storm went from a lakes cutter to a slider, i know its 18z gfs, but its the best thing i seen on there in a long time. It is the way the models have been this year this storm has been trending a bit south today (still is) could be the southeast bias at play from the GFS with this storm but nice to see a 1-3 event here. Chances are this will shift back north slightly and go wetter. Defiantly something to watch along with the big storm chance near Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Hey guys, I will not post anything from him anymore if it upsets folks. I am not agreeing or supporting him by by post. Simply passing on information. Let me know and I will not post any more quotes from his musings! Thanks! Paul If you could leave out the part where he seems to be taking a jab at someone else in the met community it might help... you know what they say about ignorance and bliss... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 With the past and current state of this discussion, se ridge, pv stall, mjo, epo, nao, ao, pna all in the crapper a white christmas possibility gives me this feeling: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2011 Author Share Posted December 13, 2011 im at work right now so i can post this the way i want to, but funny how this storm went from a lakes cutter to a slider, i know its 18z gfs, but its the best thing i seen on there in a long time. that storm might have less going for it then the one last week. Their is barely any precip on the cold side, and the precip their is like 75 miles wide. Thats very slim. With the domination of the se ridge that baby is coming north. Only thing i can see surpressing that is how the gfs does it by dropping the pv further south with confluence across the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soadforecaster Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 that storm might have less going for it then the one last week. Their is barely any precip on the cold side, and the precip their is like 75 miles wide. Thats very slim. With the domination of the se ridge that baby is coming north. Only thing i can see surpressing that is how the gfs does it by dropping the pv further south with confluence across the northeast. i know its not the idea storm/setup all i was saying is that there is some hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2011 Author Share Posted December 13, 2011 i know its not the idea storm/setup all i was saying is that there is some hope. yea i know i wasnt bashing you for saying something. Im just stating my thoughts that i don't see it materializing. Just looked at the euro. It has the same idea of a surpressed storm, but their is no precip in the cold secture, its all rain. Who knows. Like tony said that storm comes north so does the warm air... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soadforecaster Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 yea i know i wasnt bashing you for saying something. Im just stating my thoughts that i don't see it materializing. Just looked at the euro. It has the same idea of a surpressed storm, but their is no precip in the cold secture, its all rain. Who knows. Like tony said that storm comes north so does the warm air... im not the best at looking at the maps so forigve me if im wrong, but at the 500 vort level, if it were to push north and connect with any of them bit of enery wouldnt that just cause it to cut to the lakes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 JB regarding the Friday into Sat AM potential winter "event" "a correction north and stronger wave is likely. "Also a numbers are too warm warning is in effect for the lakes and northeast this weekend. This high has continental, not maritime origins and is the first one riding into the the east instead of being delivered down the plains and having to come east, so temps will be below normal more than the point and clicks are saying this weekend" That sheared out wave going through VA will have to amplify a helluva lot to become what he wants... It's true but there is no need to change the forecast right now, the event is still 4 days away and needs better model support. They're about 75-100 miles apart at the surface. That's pretty good for four days out (very much within margin of error). Hey guys, I will not post anything from him anymore if it upsets folks. I am not agreeing or supporting him by by post. Simply passing on information. Let me know and I will not post any more quotes from his musings! Thanks! Paul I don't mind JB but you know well enough by now that he's going to be ripped upon just about every time for something or other...especially after last week's debacle of a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Yeah, I'm not very impressed with the "storm" either. If the storm doesn't happen I'm sure JB will claim it was just speculation. This subforum is so peaceful. I'm very appreciative of it. I'd still bet it ends up being similar to last week... rain for most, backside snow for the interior. Can't agree more re: the subforum. Agree 100%....quality FTW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 That sheared out wave going through VA will have to amplify a helluva lot to become what he wants... They're about 75-100 miles apart at the surface. That's pretty good for four days out (very much within margin of error). I don't mind JB but you know well enough by now that he's going to be ripped upon just about every time for something or other...especially after last week's debacle of a forecast. He was wrong with that one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 I'm fine with JB's thought's posted here. He was the first on-line met I followed way back when he was free on accu., then I discovered eastern . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 14, 2011 Author Share Posted December 14, 2011 im not the best at looking at the maps so forigve me if im wrong, but at the 500 vort level, if it were to push north and connect with any of them bit of enery wouldnt that just cause it to cut to the lakes? yea that vort has to track under us, never good when the vort tracks north of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Hey guys, I will not post anything from him anymore if it upsets folks. I am not agreeing or supporting him by by post. Simply passing on information. Let me know and I will not post any more quotes from his musings! Thanks! Paul Paul, I agree with what Ray posted. I don't think anyone or should I say I don't have any objections to you posting JB's meteorological thoughts on upcoming events. But if you wouldn't mind, please delete the non-meteorological parts. I would appreciate it. Ignorance is truly bliss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soadforecaster Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 yea that vort has to track under us, never good when the vort tracks north of you. well i must say 00z gfs looks better, crazy how we were talking about the vorts, you can see this time a small piece drops down into the system and deff gives it a different look, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 well i must say 00z gfs looks better, crazy how we were talking about the vorts, you can see this time a small piece drops down into the system and deff gives it a different look, It still looks pretty sheared out to me. I do expect a north trend from the SE ridge, but without an antecedent cold air mass to work with even if the h85 vort tracks in the right position and it becomes more amplified then it is now, it still is going to be very hard to get anything of significance out of it except for well inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soadforecaster Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 It still looks pretty sheared out to me. I do expect a north trend from the SE ridge, but without an antecedent cold air mass to work with even if the h85 vort tracks in the right position and it becomes more amplified then it is now, it still is going to be very hard to get anything of significance out of it except for well inland. i agree it does look sheared out but its because it splits the system into two, then after it hits the coast it becomes one storm again and rides the coast, if the system does not split, and the more southern/eastern low is the primary low, once that low hits the coast and rides northeast it would create its own cold air and with that track would be snow along 95 up the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 NAEFS edged milder week 2 again. Next Tuesday system, last time the GFS held back the 500mb low more than the Euro it pulled a pretty big rock, not optimistic about its solution at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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