am19psu Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Essentially the Roundy is just the tropical forcing only, correct? Are we to incorporate both the MJO phase space diagrams and the Roundy together and blend them? They're two descriptions of the same phenomenon. Frankly, unless you are experienced with tropical convective forcing, I'd rather see you guys stick the Phase Space and I'll jump in with Roundy stuff as needed. It'll be less confusing that way. We need to somehow get rid of that se ridge. Otherwise it's a roll over transient -EPO ridge. This in turn leads to a cold shot from a positively tilted trough aligned sw-ne...which isn't a good delivery. Fast PAC flow behind roll over ridge causes this shot to be short lived and also bounces out of here pretty dam quick thanks to the se ridge. Rinse and repeat. EC ensembles do try and build some slight ridging in NW Canada, but it's got work to do against that se ridge. Yup. adam, i got a question on the roundy mjo, or whoever can answer...the thick red lines is the mjo, but how do you know what phase its in? Since its like a huge bubble that encompasses multiple phases... Also, whats the difference between the dashed lines and solid lines for the mjo? is that indicative of the cod, or weaker forcing? Here where the convection anomalies are located globally based on the MJO phase. It's all tied together. Dashed lines are the "negative phase" of the MJO. There is increased subsidence in the dashed lines vs. increased upward motion in the solid lines. Yup. It is a rolling three month average (I posted NDJ) they are keeping, so as seasons/wavelengths change, different phases will have different influences (and confidence intervals) depending on the time of year. Those images are nice, but too coarse, imo. I use the stuff RaleighWx has put together on his site. MDA Dynacast is even better because you can choose today's date +/- 2 weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 6z gfs says ... Good uck trying to get anything frozen outta this set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 12, 2011 Author Share Posted December 12, 2011 just something to watch the period of 18-22, some of the gfs ens members are trying to build another wave on the front this coming weekend like we saw last week. Could bring some wintry weather to the region if it occurs. The canadian, develops a miller b that affects sne primarily.. The euro, squashes the wave off nc coast....so maybe something to watch for, its within HM's period to watch. Again, timing has to be right, but i think this situation has a better setup than last with more cold air available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 just something to watch the period of 18-22, some of the gfs ens members are trying to build another wave on the front this coming weekend like we saw last week. Could bring some wintry weather to the region if it occurs. The canadian, develops a miller b that affects sne primarily.. The euro, squashes the wave off nc coast....so maybe something to watch for, its within HM's period to watch. Again, timing has to be right, but i think this situation has a better setup than last with more cold air available. Yeah, it's definitely something to watch... though I fear a repeat of last week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 12, 2011 Author Share Posted December 12, 2011 Yeah, it's definitely something to watch... though I fear a repeat of last week se ridge ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 They're two descriptions of the same phenomenon. Frankly, unless you are experienced with tropical convective forcing, I'd rather see you guys stick the Phase Space and I'll jump in with Roundy stuff as needed. It'll be less confusing that way. Yup. Here where the convection anomalies are located globally based on the MJO phase. It's all tied together. Dashed lines are the "negative phase" of the MJO. There is increased subsidence in the dashed lines vs. increased upward motion in the solid lines. Those images are nice, but too coarse, imo. I use the stuff RaleighWx has put together on his site. MDA Dynacast is even better because you can choose today's date +/- 2 weeks Thanks. Yup anytime we're lumping three months together we are going to lose some detail. Its nice at least its a rolling three months vs seasonal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 se ridge ftw Amp'd STJ+ really +AO+ NAO, ugly Atlantic +ugly pacific+ MJO being terribly bad = FTL!! I really just can't see how te coastal plain gets anything frozen that would be at least minimal in this pattern. And while numbers change and say the pattern has changed, let's not kid ourselves. Until the AO and NAO get near neutral (mYbe towards new years?) and the MJO starts heading towards 7,8,1. We're no where near a favorable pattern. Like tomb has said though, some interior and higher elevation places could make out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Amp'd STJ+ really +AO+ NAO, ugly Atlantic +ugly pacific+ MJO being terribly bad = FTL!! I really just can't see how te coastal plain gets anything frozen that would be at least minimal in this pattern. And while numbers change and say the pattern has changed, let's not kid ourselves. Until the AO and NAO get near neutral (mYbe towards new years?) and the MJO starts heading towards 7,8,1. We're no where near a favorable pattern. Like tomb has said though, some interior and higher elevation places could make out. The Euro looked better today, and the Canadian hasn't been so bad the last 2 runs. It's possible we could sneak something in before Christmas as a stop-gap to the bigger changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 The Euro looked better today, and the Canadian hasn't been so bad the last 2 runs. It's possible we could sneak something in before Christmas as a stop-gap to the bigger changes. This is really north and west centric for much hope. The problem may be how far north and how far west. Congrats MJO on entering the COD. Just looking at some NAEFS means, the pacific could be better but the position of the pv and the positive nao are the real warministas. The climo is getting colder, so that by default will help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 I'm not playing 7,8,1 for the daily number this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 12, 2011 Author Share Posted December 12, 2011 Amp'd STJ+ really +AO+ NAO, ugly Atlantic +ugly pacific+ MJO being terribly bad = FTL!! I really just can't see how te coastal plain gets anything frozen that would be at least minimal in this pattern. And while numbers change and say the pattern has changed, let's not kid ourselves. Until the AO and NAO get near neutral (mYbe towards new years?) and the MJO starts heading towards 7,8,1. We're no where near a favorable pattern. Like tomb has said though, some interior and higher elevation places could make out. The setup isnt that bad really, if a piece of energy can come out at the right time.. You got a -nao,although its east based and transient...you have the pv displaced over northeastern hudson bay, enforcing the cold air...some what of a pna ridge, only downfall is that pig sitting in the sw, holding back energy and flattening the flow in southeast states so the trof can;t amplify, basically a split flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 12, 2011 Author Share Posted December 12, 2011 euro ens arent a trainwreck today, still not a good pattern but its improved a little. Nice pos pna trying to pop. It would be nice if we can get that pv to settle south over hudson bay and raise some hgts over greenland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 This was the best longer term (from just before Christmas) run for colder weather I've seen in the ensembles (NAEFS too) in a while. Now we will have to see if it moves forward in time. The NAEFS took a big plunge from above normal preferred percentages to near normal preferred percentages in just a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 This could be the system that is more freezing/less all liquid for north/west (Paul, Quakertown, and points north). It has a warm look in this run but prior runs were colder. Just some food for thought for next week. And the "good news" -- the hour 384 GFS has a storm just off the Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Joe Bastardi Dreaming of a White Christmas??? set up better than normal with this kind of trough for Christmas day pic.twitter.com/jDe0eB3T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2011 Author Share Posted December 13, 2011 Euro and its ens develop a nicr -epo and pos pna...though the atlantic is garbage still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Euro and its ens develop a nicr -epo and pos pna...though the atlantic is garbage still. A little birdie sent me an image of all December dates with a +PNA/+NAO/-ENSO regime... it's not cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2011 Author Share Posted December 13, 2011 A little birdie sent me an image of all December dates with a +PNA/+NAO/-ENSO regime... it's not cold. what about if you throw in a -epo in the mix...till you get some blocking the cold wont be prolonged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 what about if you throw in a -epo in the mix...till you get some blocking the cold wont be prolonged. It was in a discussion about the 11-15 day period, where the +PNA seems to be the dominant EPAC teleconnection. So to answer your question, I don't have it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 JB regarding the Friday into Sat AM potential winter "event" "a correction north and stronger wave is likely. "Also a numbers are too warm warning is in effect for the lakes and northeast this weekend. This high has continental, not maritime origins and is the first one riding into the the east instead of being delivered down the plains and having to come east, so temps will be below normal more than the point and clicks are saying this weekend" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 JB regarding the Friday into Sat AM potential winter "event" "a correction north and stronger wave is likely. "Also a numbers are too warm warning is in effect for the lakes and northeast this weekend. This high has continental, not maritime origins and is the first one riding into the the east instead of being delivered down the plains and having to come east, so temps will be below normal more than the point and clicks are saying this weekend" Now I'm pretty sure that's a swipe at NWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Now I'm pretty sure that's a swipe at NWS. It's true but there is no need to change the forecast right now, the event is still 4 days away and needs better model support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Yeah, I'm not very impressed with the "storm" either. If the storm doesn't happen I'm sure JB will claim it was just speculation. This subforum is so peaceful. I'm very appreciative of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Yeah, I'm not very impressed with the "storm" either. If the storm doesn't happen I'm sure JB will claim it was just speculation. This subforum is so peaceful. I'm very appreciative of it. I'd still bet it ends up being similar to last week... rain for most, backside snow for the interior. Can't agree more re: the subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 This subforum is so peaceful. I'm very appreciative of it. it's not winter yet so stayed tuned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 I'd still bet it ends up being similar to last week... rain for most, backside snow for the interior. Can't agree more re: the subforum. Ditto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fsu_wxgirl Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Don't want to jump on a system too quick, but the 12z GFS brings a system in for Christmas Day. The winter weather weenie in me says go for it!!! The meteorologist is saying hold your horses...plus its only one model run guess I'll wait to see what the ensembles and Euro say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Don't want to jump on a system too quick, but the 12z GFS brings a system in for Christmas Day. The winter weather weenie in me says go for it!!! The meteorologist is saying hold your horses...plus its only one model run guess I'll wait to see what the ensembles and Euro say. Now now, how many times do I have to post this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Now I'm pretty sure that's a swipe at NWS. Definitely. But I actually agree with him RE: colder temps. Not sure what the Mt Holly forecasts are for this weekend, but Sterling is going for low-mid 40s for highs/upper 20s for lows. At the moment, I'd expect things are a bit colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fsu_wxgirl Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 I guess until Jack Frost comes and puts out your little flame!(If he ever does...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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