phlwx Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Average high temperature on December 10th is 46. Yesterday's high was 45 and today will likely be a couple of degrees cooler. The pattern sucks if you want snow but it is definitely now more "typical" of early winter around here than it was a week ago...and that's without weenie wishcasting on stratospheric warming given the negative anomaly in that bucket. Pattern will suck for those who want snow for a while yet -- we have another lakes cutter and then another cool to cold shot next weekend (30's next Saturday?) and then we'll warm up the middle of next week in advance of another lakes cutter. Our snowiest stretch of winter, on average, comes up after Christmas. No sense looking at each fart in the stratosphere as a sign things are going to go colder here...you'll need a major flip of the switch and that's not on the docket quite yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 From Larry Cosgrove....sounds like he and JB are getting a bit excited about the medium and long range (if you like cold and wintery events) "Needless to say, much to discuss with changes upcoming in the medium range and longer term. All of the energy with the subtropical jet stream may interact with the Arctic air mass building across Canada to produce a major winter storm in the December 17 - 21 time frame. A somewhat weaker storm will affect the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley on Wednesday and Thursday. But the second and far stronger threat will track from TX and LA into the lower Great Lakes and St.Lawrence Valley, with a plethora of heavy precipitation concerns in all sectors (the ice and snow may affect the western Corn belt; severe weather in the Deep South). I am watching the potential move of the circumpolar vortex (that is the Arctic motherlode. the really brutal cold air) into Hudson Bay and even points southward during the days precedent to Christmas. A stratospheric warming event would seem to favor a large-scale drop in temperature over much of the U.S. on and after December 23". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 RE Cosgrove that snow/ice is not hallmarked for us at all but the Midwest...which is a likely scenario. Still need a lot to go right to get a locked in pattern that will shut off the Lakes cutter parade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 11, 2011 Author Share Posted December 11, 2011 RE Cosgrove that snow/ice is not hallmarked for us at all but the Midwest...which is a likely scenario. Still need a lot to go right to get a locked in pattern that will shut off the Lakes cutter parade. maybe its me, but after reading that note by cosgrove i don;t see anything that states pattern change. The stratospheric warming event is nothing out of the ordinary. If you look at what its doing compared to the 30 yr mean its completely normal. The models this weekend actually got worse in my opinion for us in the long range. They are flushing the vodka cold on the other side of the pole, and dropping the other pv down by baffin island, which is a severly pos nao. The rest of the Us and southern canada is dominated by zonal pacific flow. With the normal warm 4 days, cutter then normal for a day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 I was focusing more on what he thinks follows for the east.... "I also suspect that this disturbance will introduce much colder air into the Eastern Seaboard, precedent to the Christmas holiday weekend" "Life After The Storm": Why The Circumpolar Vortex Bodes Ill For Those Hating The Cold! "recent stratospheric temperature anomaly forecasts are turning very warm over Canada in the 11 - 15 day period. If so, southward displacement of the harshest of air mass may be enabled in the days just before Christmas." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Steve d- Stratospheric warming process has begun at 5 MB: http://www.cpc.ncep....re/05mb9065.gif We're still well below normal at 5 mb but the 5 mb level isn't super important unless there is downwelling with the EP flux aimed at the poles. The 00Z 11 Dec Euro run took away much of the really cold look that it had on yesterday's 12Z run for the plains and the implication that the east would eventually get some of it. It's pretty boring run unless you like the torch on it at 216hrs. I guess I'm saying the pattern still isn't a good one and doesn't yet look like it will break before the new year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Tom, I would suspect one of these cutters will bring down enough cold air to allow a subsequent piece of energy to rotate a little further south along the boundary and set up some winter mischief (maybe not all snow) but I am starting to believe many of us will se a winter event right around the holiday. Should be interesting time in about 7 days time.... Paul maybe its me, but after reading that note by cosgrove i don;t see anything that states pattern change. The stratospheric warming event is nothing out of the ordinary. If you look at what its doing compared to the 30 yr mean its completely normal. The models this weekend actually got worse in my opinion for us in the long range. They are flushing the vodka cold on the other side of the pole, and dropping the other pv down by baffin island, which is a severly pos nao. The rest of the Us and southern canada is dominated by zonal pacific flow. With the normal warm 4 days, cutter then normal for a day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 This is JBs latest update this morning... "What YOU HAVE TO REALIZE IS that this is a 2 to 3 week pattern evolution from the time the warming starts. Before any of this ever happens, which would mean a sustainable cold, not back and forth, we have the back and forth and the threat of real problems. The pattern the next three weeks is one with a trough over eastern N America north of 40 north, the ridge trying to develop directly under it south, and the trough over the southwest in the means with enough cold coming southeast to cause plenty of fight problems from the southern plains to the lakes and northeast" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 More from JB that don't subscribe (and don't dislike him too much - LOL) "its part of the pattern we are in. Unlike last year, we cant have blocking all the time, but for 3 weeks this winter we may see this come charging in. Keep in mind this is a longer term tool 2-3 weeks later. It can be cold and back and forth before, and the super outbreak if there is one could go into the west. Most of the time it comes straight into the plains since the natural way in N America for cold to replace warm is through that alley but the whole country can get it. So lets just say this is the second time I have alerted you to the similarities to that winter (1984-85), and we will leave it at that for now" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 We're still well below normal at 5 mb but the 5 mb level isn't super important unless there is downwelling with the EP flux aimed at the poles. The 00Z 11 Dec Euro run took away much of the really cold look that it had on yesterday's 12Z run for the plains and the implication that the east would eventually get some of it. It's pretty boring run unless you like the torch on it at 216hrs. I guess I'm saying the pattern still isn't a good one and doesn't yet look like it will break before the new year. We *might* get a sneak attack CAD type event if one of the highs coming across is strong enough and times with a low coming through the OV...might get some freezing rain/snow to ice type crap in the mountains (likely not this week with that lakes cutter, it might be later next week if the euro modeled torch mutes a fair amount). Lots of those mights have to go in colder direction though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 maybe its me, but after reading that note by cosgrove i don;t see anything that states pattern change. The stratospheric warming event is nothing out of the ordinary. If you look at what its doing compared to the 30 yr mean its completely normal. The models this weekend actually got worse in my opinion for us in the long range. They are flushing the vodka cold on the other side of the pole, and dropping the other pv down by baffin island, which is a severly pos nao. The rest of the Us and southern canada is dominated by zonal pacific flow. With the normal warm 4 days, cutter then normal for a day or two. I pretty much agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Denverweather Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Don't make false statements because you don't understand what the graph is showing. As was stated, anomalies are what matters, and we're still well into the negative anomalies. Who said I am making false statements. What I am seeing is the temp is going up!?! I mean feel free to say I am wrong however it looks like the same thing happened over the last two years, and look how those winters turned out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Average high temperature on December 10th is 46. Yesterday's high was 45 and today will likely be a couple of degrees cooler. The pattern sucks if you want snow but it is definitely now more "typical" of early winter around here than it was a week ago...and that's without weenie wishcasting on stratospheric warming given the negative anomaly in that bucket. Pattern will suck for those who want snow for a while yet -- we have another lakes cutter and then another cool to cold shot next weekend (30's next Saturday?) and then we'll warm up the middle of next week in advance of another lakes cutter. Our snowiest stretch of winter, on average, comes up after Christmas. No sense looking at each fart in the stratosphere as a sign things are going to go colder here...you'll need a major flip of the switch and that's not on the docket quite yet. You're right. In terms of snow budgets we really are not losing much (I95) by losing snow chances prior to Christmas. With the teleconnection trends other than the Euro that :wubs: the SE ridge I would suspect you'd see nw track adjustments as we get closer to events as long as the NAO stays this positive. As per the stratosphere, yup it is climatologically warming now, so you have to warm faster. Plus an effect by it under normal circumstances (paging Wes) would still be a couple of weeks away even if it was truly starting now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Denverweather Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 You're right. In terms of snow budgets we really are not losing much (I95) by losing snow chances prior to Christmas. With the teleconnection trends other than the Euro that :wubs: the SE ridge I would suspect you'd see nw track adjustments as we get closer to events as long as the NAO stays this positive. As per the stratosphere, yup it is climatologically warming now, so you have to warm faster. Plus an effect by it under normal circumstances (paging Wes) would still be a couple of weeks away even if it was truly starting now. So you all basically think that the QBO is not a factor at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 You're right. In terms of snow budgets we really are not losing much (I95) by losing snow chances prior to Christmas. With the teleconnection trends other than the Euro that :wubs: the SE ridge I would suspect you'd see nw track adjustments as we get closer to events as long as the NAO stays this positive. As per the stratosphere, yup it is climatologically warming now, so you have to warm faster. Plus an effect by it under normal circumstances (paging Wes) would still be a couple of weeks away even if it was truly starting now. There tends to be a lag but not all ssw warming events actually lead to blocking as you need the warming to work its way down to the troposphere. That's what is tricky about ssw. The ones that do have their EP flux (wahtever that is) directed towards the poles http://center.stelab.nagoya-u.ac.jp/cawses2005/PDF/yamazaki_koji.pdf http://www-k12.atmos.washington.edu/~dennis/Limpasuvan_etal_JClim_04.pdf The warming that is now occurring is not a ssw event. It's the climo warming that typically occurs at this time of year. THe pattern still pretty much looks like the pattern we've been dealing with from November into Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 So you all basically think that the QBO is not a factor at all? It is a factor but ssw events tend to occur with an easterly qbo and low solar and a westerly qbo when the solar cycle is high and even then you can get years that don't fit. Last year for example, the qbo was westerly and the solar cycle and sun spot activity so and we got blocking but the initally blocking came from troposphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 So you all basically think that the QBO is not a factor at all? What Wes posted. Its a factor, but its not a one to one relationship, there have been winters locally with negative qbo(s) that have been dogs (2007-8) and others that were pretty good, (2000-1). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Denverweather Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 It is a factor but ssw events tend to occur with an easterly qbo and low solar and a westerly qbo when the solar cycle is high and even then you can get years that don't fit. Last year for example, the qbo was westerly and the solar cycle and sun spot activity so and we got blocking but the initally blocking came from troposphere. So let me get this strait... initially last year it was a westerly QBO it then went easterly?? Correct me if im wrong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 To be honest I am not sure how any one can be depending on the ECM or even talking about how it lost the cold look etc when it does this kind of change in a 12 hr period... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Denverweather Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 What Wes posted. Its a factor, but its not a one to one relationship, there have been winters locally with negative qbo(s) that have been dogs (2007-8) and others that were pretty good, (2000-1). But overall, the negative QBO helps the winters be pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 To be honest I am not sure how any one can be depending on the ECM or even talking about how it lost the cold look etc when it does this kind of change in a 12 hr period... When the teleconnective indices, position of the mjo and gwo do not corroborate that model run, you can have greater confidence that a cold (or last winter a warm) single deterministic model run solution will not verify. Vis-a-vis I'd be skeptical of any suddenly cold solution run until the former change. A positive nao with a Baffin Island vortex is not a cold pattern for us. Could we have some cold days and maybe thread a needle event during it, sure there are no absolutes, but the climo doesn't favor it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 But overall, the negative QBO helps the winters be pretty good To be honest I have not done a local study on it. I suspect there is more to it than just a negative number. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 When the teleconnective indices, position of the mjo and gwo do not corroborate that model run, you can have greater confidence that a cold (or last winter a warm) single deterministic model run solution will not verify. Vis-a-vis I'd be skeptical of any suddenly cold solution run until the former change. A positive nao with a Baffin Island vortex is not a cold pattern for us. Could we have some cold days and maybe thread a needle event during it, sure there are no absolutes, but the climo doesn't favor it. Your MJO is heading into the circle of death ..does that not make the influence of the MJO less of a factor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 11, 2011 Author Share Posted December 11, 2011 Your MJO is heading into the circle of death ..does that not make the influence of the MJO less of a factor? yes, but ther other indices dont support sustained cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 yes, but ther other indices dont support sustained cold So you are saying with the EPO negative and the PNA rising to a positive state before going back negative in the longer range (which that is a crapshoot) and a falling NAO and the MJO having less of an influence can not cause colder air to drop into the plains and the northeast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Your MJO is heading into the circle of death ..does that not make the influence of the MJO less of a factor? Yes less of a factor, but also not a driving force for a pattern change either. I have found about a two week lag works ok for us for a pattern change when the mjo crosses from p5 to p6. This is predicated on it remaining active into the colder phases. There were some excellent points made by Adam a couple of pages back on the MJO. Don't know if you have ever seen this, but this not only shows the warm/cold phases but gives the statistical significance for those phases throughout the Conus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 11, 2011 Author Share Posted December 11, 2011 So you are saying with the EPO negative and the PNA rising to a positive state before going back negative in the longer range (which that is a crapshoot) and a falling NAO and the MJO having less of an influence can not cause colder air to drop into the plains and the northeast? any ensemble forecast of the nao outside of 5 days has been horrible. so you cant throw that out their till you see that within 5days...the epo has been negative for awhile and hasnt done much at all for us except bring transient shots of cold...not saying their is no shot of snow it just needs to be time exactly right...also the.mjo heading into the cod is not good because it argues for no forcing to change the pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 any ensemble forecast of the nao outside of 5 days has been horrible. so you cant throw that out their till you see that within 5days...the epo has been negative for awhile and hasnt done much at all for us except bring transient shots of cold...not saying their is no shot of snow it just needs to be time exactly right...also the.mjo heading into the cod is not good because it argues for no forcing to change the pattern I agree ..HOWEVER..if the ensemble means of the models such as the ECM, GGEM, GFS are all showing a gradient pattern with cold air north and warmer air south..would this not be a pattern change from what it was in November? Furthermore the 12 Z ECM just basically started to now come around to that gradient pattern that its ensemble means have been consistently showing and have lost that huge pig SE ridge... By the way 37 degrees here ..this is a 20 + degree drop from November! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 any ensemble forecast of the nao outside of 5 days has been horrible. so you cant throw that out their till you see that within 5days...the epo has been negative for awhile and hasnt done much at all for us except bring transient shots of cold...not saying their is no shot of snow it just needs to be time exactly right...also the.mjo heading into the cod is not good because it argues for no forcing to change the pattern I think we're having an apple and orange discussion while we are posting about a change in the pattern to sustained cold he may be posting about another transient shot of cold air making it into the northeast. One of Walt's favorite (he has alot) charts still doesn't show much before Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 11, 2011 Author Share Posted December 11, 2011 I agree ..HOWEVER..if the ensemble means of the models such as the ECM, GGEM, GFS are all showing a gradient pattern with cold air north and warmer air south..would this not be a pattern change from what it was in November? Furthermore the 12 Z ECM just basically started to now come around to that gradient pattern that its ensemble means have been consistently showing and have lost that huge pig SE ridge... By the way 37 degrees here ..this is a 20 + degree drop from November! If the gradient pattern sets up its a change, but the pv is locates to far north to help us and the trof in the sw is going to pulse the se ridge...i said this like 2 days ago poss gradient pattern but we will be on the wrong side of it...also we were discussing jb and larrys statement for cold to return to the eastern us when nothing shows that...yea the northeast will cool down but as a whole its going to be still above normal...2+2 =4 and so does 3+1 even though somethings have changed like maybe going to a hradient pattern the end result is still the same... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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